E. J. Dionne: Clinton's Difficulties Deeper Than Strategy

[babylonsister]

Clinton's Difficulties Deeper Than Strategy
By E. J. Dionne

WASHINGTON -- The Democratic contest in Iowa -- and possibly the battle for the party's presidential nomination -- hangs on whether Hillary Clinton can use the next two weeks to encourage second thoughts about Barack Obama, and get voters to take a second look at her.

A month and a half ago, Clinton was widely seen as the inevitable victor. Now, she faces a moment of great peril.

For most of 2007, Clinton benefited from a virtuous cycle. Her continuing lead in the polls slowly eased Democratic doubts about her ability to beat the Republicans next fall. Her crisp debate performances reinforced her message that she would be ready "on Day One" to be president. This fed back into more good poll results.

But her spiral downward began with a single mistake in an Oct. 30 debate over a New York state plan to give driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, even as she was coming under more aggressive attack from Obama and John Edwards. The decline affected her standing not only in Iowa, but also in New Hampshire, which was supposed to be Fortress Clinton.

Yet Clinton's difficulties owe to deeper flaws in her strategy. These include an early ambivalence about competing in Iowa; the failure to link her arguments about experience to more inspirational themes; and an underestimation of Obama, bred by his sluggish performance during the summer. She thus emphasized positions -- in favor of a tough Iran policy, for example -- potentially more helpful in a general election campaign than with a Democratic electorate.

That Clinton is only now rushing to complete visits to all of Iowa's 99 counties reflects the fact that some in her campaign, according to a memo leaked in May, once considered having her skip the state's caucuses altogether. David Bonior, Edwards' campaign manager, said last weekend that Clinton was running behind both his candidate and Obama in many of the state's rural counties.

more...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/clintons_difficulties_deeper_t.html

[Bitwit1234]

1. Boy the republicans are sure as hell "skeered" of Hillary

aren't they. Over and over the beat keeps on. They bash and they flame. But Hillary is still as strong as ever. THAT'S WHAT WE NEED IN A PRESIDENT. NOT ONE GIVEN A PASS SO THEY CAN HAVE A LOSER TO RUN AGAINST.

[ellacott]

3. Yet you want to give Hillary a pass

funny

[cali]

11. EJ Dionne is not remotely a repuke

try again.

[Armstead]

14. I'm assuming you know nothing about EJ Dionne

he is about as far from a "republican" as you can get.

[loveangelc]

16. fail. n/t

[saltpoint]

2. Good post. Dionne is pretty good on politics, even as his newspaper has

drifted far from its glory days in the 70s.

HClinton does have a little over 2 weeks to go, but she also has some sturdy competition. The undecided vote and the I'll-decide-on-caucus-night vote are going to be major variables, IMO, and Iowa shifts quickly and decisively when it wants to when it comes to political support in the caucuses.

It's gonna be wild.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. I agree. This was a thoughful piece and I pretty much agree with it. n/t

[babylonsister]

5. I like Dionne, too. He doesn't appear to let any personal

opinions leak into what he writes. And yes, it's going to be an interesting 2 weeks, but I can't wait til it's over.

:hi:

[saltpoint]

6. 'Mornin' babylonsister. Yes. He's good at being an oberser-analyst instead

of the Tony Blankley-style boss-thug analyst.

The headlines on January 4th will probably change the direction and tone of a lot of blog posts coast to coast. Or, I guess it could intensify the current tone. Those Iowans are in the catbird seat.

[papau]

8. Dione is fairly good - but Clinton losing Iowa was what was expected 9 months ago - not a big deal

[saltpoint]

9. Hi, papau. She held the lead as little as a month ago, though, until

Iowans began their usual fluid reconsideration process.

Roughly a month ago HClinton, Obama, Edwards was the 1-2-3 order.

Obama appears to have taken the lead in Iowa, with Edwards charging hard on the outside.

Right now my thought is the top three slots could be decided on the narrowest of differentials, potentially setting up a wild scramble within 1 percentage point for all three current frontrunners.

Also I feel that it's too soon to count out Joe Biden, who has won some ears out there these past couple months. A strong finish by the Biden campaign in Iowa could really rock the boat.

[papau]

12. I like Biden and Dodd but "second choice" predictions are impossible to poll - Edwards rural

approach (25 people in a home gets you a delegate) has always seemed - to me - to be unstop-able.

The polls on Iowa have rarely ever even been close to the final result - although they did show Kerry moving quickly up.

The unknown is the kids coming out - they didn't for Dean - they may well for Obama.

But Hillary has never had a chance - IMO - and coming in 3rd would be expected (Obama/Edwards/Hillary if polls are correct, Edwards/Obama/Hillary if I am right about rural bias).

But there is a good chance they will all (all 5) be bunched up together - and Biden may well pull into 3rd. Joe sure has the ready day one foreign policy cred's.

I note the Obama/Dodd talk - that would be a nice ticket!

But the finals are Feb 5th, and I do not expect any to withdraw before then unless single digit results in Iowa and/or NH.

[saltpoint]

15. Some good key points. Definitely agree with you that Obama's support

may have a lot to do with how many of the Iowa City folks turn out, and also agree about February 5th -- it would be really good if all 8 could stay in until at least then, and longer if possible.

One more agreement -- I think it could bunch up into a really close finish.

And that would be a good jolt of energy for everyone.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. The more telling points were about the race dymanics - not the Iowa outcome

I think Hillary did shift into a gear designed to better position her for November too soon, and she underestimated how important it was to rally the emotions of the Democratic base to embrace her as THEIR leader before stressing her case to become America's next leader.

[papau]

13. As a policy wonk I like her approach - but I agree emotions/likability to the base comes first - EJ

does have a point.

[flying rabbit]

17. Wild. Yep!

Should be interesting.
:popcorn:

[jefferson_dem]

7. "Spot on" column by Dionne.

:thumbsup:

[K Gardner]

18. This is a good article, hadn't seen it before. You always find the good stuff!