Obama now has 9 point lead over Hillary in IA - Edwards tied w/Hillary

[EV_Ares]

Obama's trend lines all up over 33%.

Hillary has lost 11%.

[LSparkle]

1. Whoa ... We got us a horse race, all right

Yippeekiyay, MF-er!!!!

[Bolo Boffin]

2. Just the way the media likes it

Covering inevitability is just so boring, you know. How can you sell advertising with inevitability?

[LSparkle]

7. With a field as talented as ours, it SHOULD be a horse race ...

I'm with the media on this one -- there's no way that any one candidate should be inevitable at this point, with the depth of the Dem field. I'm glad to see it's a real contest again (at least for the moment).

[Tellurian]

16. Whoa, where is a link to this surge?

[Stop Cornyn]

3. And that's BEFORE polling from the last debate where Edwards and Obama pwned Hillary!

[skipos]

4. Now all I need is for Biden to bump Hillary into 4th.

Yea, the odds are against it...

[monmouth]

5. From your keyboard to God's ear....

[mckeown1128]

6. I like the sound of that!!!

[Pirate Smile]

8. I think it could happen.

[DivorcingNeo]

9. Obama...Obama...O...O...Obama!

Time to wipe the floor with Hillary, "No, your husband was NOT the first black president", Clinton.

[BootinUp]

10. Source?

[EV_Ares]

13. Posted twice.

[EV_Ares]

14. Turn on MSNBC, CNN, on Hardball right now. n/t.

[FogerRox]

17. Research 2000 poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3837016#3837213

I wonder if they polled "likely voters" ? Because Caucus members are hard core, way more hard core than "likely voters".

[earthlover]

23. Yes, likely voters...here's what the poll said....

"The poll, which was conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. Respondents voted in the 2004 and 2006 elections and said they were definitely or almost certain to vote in the caucuses".

http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2007/12/14/news/local/doc4762b62922c47155272760.txt

I would say that limiting them to voters who actually voted in 04 and 06 and say they were definately or almost certain to vote in the caucuses would qualify as "likely voters"

[FogerRox]

27. Voting every 2 years in the general election ? Fuckin funny

caucus goers are likely to vote in State Assembly primaries, municipal elections, school board, elections etc, NOT EVERY 2 YRS.

I would have limited it more.

[earthlover]

22. here is a link for the poll....

http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2007/12/14/news/local/doc4762b62922c47155272760.txt

"Presidential candidates Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee hold 9-point leads in Iowa with less than three weeks to go before the Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new poll conducted for the Quad-City Times and other Lee Enterprises newspapers.

The poll, conducted with 500 likely caucus-goers from Dec. 10 through Dec. 13, said Obama, a senator from Illinois, led in the Democratic race with 33 percent, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who had 24 percent each.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was next with 9 percent, followed by Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., with 3 percent and Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., and Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, with 1 percent each.

Five percent said they were undecided"....

[BootinUp]

11. Looks like +3 (RCP Average)

RCP Average 12/03 - 12/13 - 29.8 26.8 21.8 7.7 4.3 Obama +3.0
Research 2000 12/10 - 12/13 500 LV 33 24 24 9 3 Obama +9.0
Hotline/FD 12/07 - 12/12 569 LV 27 27 22 8 5 Tie
Rasmussen 12/10 - 12/10 1106 LV 26 29 22 7 5 Clinton +3.0
Strategic Vision (R) 12/08 - 12/10 600 LV 33 25 24 4 4 Obama +8.0
Newsweek 12/05 - 12/06 395 LV 35 29 18 9 4 Obama +6.0
Mason-Dixon 12/03 - 12/06 400 LV 25 27 21 9 5 Clinton +2.0

[FogerRox]

15. RCP co-mingles unlike polls

very bad methodology.

[BootinUp]

18. yea right, then I pick the one showing Clinton leading. nt

[FogerRox]

20. DAMNED RCP lover

Methodology still sucks.

picking the one with Clinton leading is easy since she is leading. What you wanna gold star for that accomplishment.....

[earthlover]

24. She is not leading in any of them! I guess that means she has Big Mo!

[BringBigDogBack]

12. Alright!

[TeamJordan23]

19. Would not surprise me if Clinton finishes third. nm

[EV_Ares]

21. Doesn't mean anything but on Hardball they were talking about her

losing Iowa, NH, SC & NV with the trend running the way it was and the disarray of her campaign right now.

Everything can change next week though.

[earthlover]

25. If Obama wins Iowa he will gain 10 points in NH and SC....

He already has caught up in nH. With a win in iowa, it would become a rout.

Hillary is already making excuses that Iowa is not a neighboring state. Well, New Hampshire IS! Hillary has owned new hampshire up until recently. No more. Hillary getting thumped in NH would be even more devestating than Iowa.

[surfermaw]

26. Remember where you heard this, EDWARDS has never been behind!