The Wall Street Journal
More Blacks Lean Toward Obama
Shift in Allegiance From Clinton
Could Tighten Primaries in South
By JONATHAN KAUFMAN and VALERIE BAUERLEIN
December 14, 2007; Page A5
Barack Obama's rising poll numbers among white voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are having an unexpected ripple effect: Some black voters are switching their allegiance from Hillary Clinton and lining up behind him too. That could mean a further tightening of the Democratic presidential race, especially in southern states where blacks make up as many as half of Democratic primary voters.
The evidence of movement is most clear in South Carolina, site of the first primary where black votes figure to make a significant impact. There, four polls now show Illinois Sen. Obama with a lead among African-American voters for the Jan. 26 vote. As a result, the race in South Carolina has tightened, with some polls calling it a dead heat. A Rasmussen poll completed last week among South Carolina voters shows Mr. Obama now attracting 51% of the African-American vote, compared with 27% for Mrs. Clinton. A month ago, the candidates were tied among South Carolina black voters. Along with other polls, Rasmussen shows the two candidates essentially tied among all South Carolina voters.
Readings of the national black vote are less clear, but there are suggestions of movement there also. A Pew Research poll completed late last month shows New York Sen. Clinton and Mr. Obama virtually tied among black voters nationwide; two months ago Mrs. Clinton held a 12-point advantage. But an ABC News/Washington Post poll this week shows Mrs. Clinton still with a commanding lead among African-Americans nationwide... But some analysts say Mrs. Clinton may do well because many of her black supporters are women and senior citizens who typically turn out for primaries in high numbers. "Hillary's voters are likely to vote," says Ron Lester, a Democratic pollster who has done extensive work polling African-Americans in the South. "That is going to help her hold her own."
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Mrs. Clinton initially built a big lead among black voters based in part on her husband's popularity. She also won a plethora of early endorsements from prominent black ministers and politicians, including civil-rights icon and Georgia Rep. John Lewis. But now Mr. Obama is making a big push for the black vote. His political director in South Carolina is a popular 34-year-old black former college-football star at the University of South Carolina who lists "old-school hip hop" as his favorite music on his MySpace page. The Obama campaign began running TV commercials in the state in the past two weeks but has been airing radio spots on 36 African-American radio stations for three months.
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Mr. Obama's efforts to woo black voters could create challenges for a candidate who has so far minimized the issue of race. "To some extent, white voters like Obama because he is nonracial and they are used to candidates like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton" who are more confrontational and emphasize black issues, says Mr. Lester, the pollster, who is African-American. At the same time, says Mr. Lester, "when Obama goes south, he will have to make extra efforts to get black voters. How that will play with white voters will be very interesting."
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