Rasmussen-IA- Clinton-29% Obama 26% Edwards 22%/NH Obama 31% Clinton 28% John Edwards 17%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary

[saltpoint]

1. Well by god a lot of folks here predicted a tightening of the race and that

appears to have taken place.

We're 23 days away from the first votes which signal the end of the end of the Bush administration.

Go, Democrats.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. hello boys, and girls. Can you say "tanking"? In my neighborhood that

means a coming fall, a crash landing, a once inevitable candidate turning into yesterday's news.

[BigDDem]

3. You're right....it's just not going to happen for Edwards

[wyldwolf]

4. Remember - rumor had it several months back Clinton would skip Iowa...

...because some believed she would not be competitive there.

Well, she is. Says something about Obama and Edwards not being able to put her away there, huh?

[jefferson_dem]

6. Ah...the old "lowering the expectations" game...

Right-o.

[wyldwolf]

7. nope, sorry. Perhaps you weren't paying attention?

From the Associated Press dated May 23, 2007

Hillary Rodham Clinton's deputy campaign manager wrote a memo this week urging the Democratic front-runner to bypass the Iowa caucuses, in order to spend time and resources in New Hampshire, South Carolina and several larger states hosting primaries next Feb. 5.

The memo emerged days after a new Des Moines Sunday Register poll of likely caucus goers showed Clinton trailing rivals John Edwards and Barack Obama in Iowa..

Now, tell me - when has Hillary consistantly led in Iowa? It's always been a tight race in in a state where she wasn't expected to to as well as she's doing. Obama and/or Edward can't seem to put the ball in the end zone despite being in the red zone for months.

[Dawgs]

9. So then how do you explain NH and SC?

[wyldwolf]

31. I haven't tried. My topic of discussion is Iowa. But then again...

..most people, especially those qualified to teach political science and with any knowledge of history, knows races always tighten.

[jefferson_dem]

10. Perhaps an illustration would help you understand.

[Dawgs]

14. Pollster.com doesn't use rasmussen, so a better graph would be showing Obama with the lead.

Go here to see what I'm talking about.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

[jefferson_dem]

16. Even better.

Thanks. :thumbsup:

[wyldwolf]

32. I already understand the race there has always been tight

[Renew Deal]

15. Then Hillary's campaign decided they must win Iowa to stay alive

They even moved the campaign manager there.

"Campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle is the biggest target, sources said. She recently took over personal command of the Iowa operation, and a Clinton defeat there could damage her future."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3825155&mesg_id=3825155

[Tellurian]

17. If Obama doesn't win or place a close second in Iowa..It's Over for him!

NH is Hillary's firewall..not Obamas.

[Renew Deal]

18. You know what's funny about all this?

No one is talking about what happens if it goes the other way. What if Hillary wins Iowa and Obama wins NH. NH is extremely unpredictable and independent. Obama getting hot in NH should be scarier to Hillary's campaign than NH.

This reminds me of the 2000 GE. We were all talking about Gore losing the GE and winning the Electoral College. No one considered the reverse. Then it happened.

[Tellurian]

26. I am not a proponent of those types of hypotheticals..

we're focused on IOWA and we intend to win it!

[Renew Deal]

34. We?

Is this Mark Penn? This is DU. We live off of BS hypotheticals. ;)

[Tellurian]

38. Moi? Not in this case..

As a former coach, "we" always keep our eyes on the prize until it's "ours" ! ;)

[Dawgs]

19. I think the latest polls prove that NH is no ones firewall.

Iowa - Obama +1.0
Obama - 28.4
Clinton - 27.4
Edwards - 21.4
Richardson - 7.2
Biden - 4.8

New Hampshire - Clinton +5.2
Clinton - 32.2
Obama - 27.0
Edwards - 15.6
Richardson - 7.6
Biden - 3.0

South Carolina - Clinton +0.2
Clinton - 30.80
Obama - 30.60
Edwards - 14.2
Biden - 7.33
Richardson - 1.67

[Tellurian]

22. What in the world are you talking about? Clinton leads by +3 in Iowa and +5.2 in NH..

Rather than posting poll numbers showing Obama ahead, he isn't...
and you do fellow DU'ers a disservice by propagating a LIE!

[Dawgs]

24. Uh, my numbers are an average of the most recent polls taken in December.

5 most recent from Iowa

6 most recent from New Hampshire

4 most recent from South Carolina

www.realclearpolitcs.com

[Tellurian]

25. No, those numbers are an average of numbers taken within the last month..

Edwards attacking Hillary unmercifully in Nov and his poll numbers reflect the results of his negative campaign strategy against Hillary. Hillary survived his attacks because the public doesn't believe him and she has increased her lead over Obama as is demonstrated in the latest Rass Dec poll..

Sorry- Better to live with the Truth rather than continue on the track of fooling yourself and living a LIE!

[Dawgs]

27. What do you mean No. I did the math myself.

BTW, did you see the latest Iowa poll showing Hillary down 8% to Obama? I guess since you only use the latest poll, you now have to admit that Obama is kicking ass in Iowa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. You Mean The Strategic Vision (R) Poll

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html


Do you know what the (R) after their name stands for?


And it's not the latest poll, Rasmussen is or they both are... Obviously since it has been completed but not officially released it was most likely conducted at the same time...

[Dawgs]

35. You again?

You realize that Rasmussen is a Republican, right?

[Tellurian]

30. I'm not dependant on your lack of math skills..read this:

From the OP:

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

"Despite all the hoopla and negative campaigning and Oprah, the Democratic race in Iowa remains pretty much the same as its been for the past month—way too close to call. In three straight Rasmussen Reports polls conducted over the past month, each of the leading candidates has seen their level of support stay in a very narrow range—three percentage points or less. Given that the poll has a three-percentage point margin of sampling error, the results are remarkably stable.

"The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus finds that Hillary Clinton is supported by 29% of Likely Caucus Participants. That’s up two points from two weeks ago and identical to her level of support a month ago.

Barack Obama enjoys 26% support in the most recent poll. He was at 25% two weeks ago and 24% a month ago."

As is stated in the first line of the first paragraph...Oprah didn't give Obama the bump he assumed he would get from Oprah's appearance and show of support.. All the glitz and hype bought Obama "1" pt....It's that simple!

[Dawgs]

36. "Oprah didn't give Obama the bump he assumed he would get.."

I guess you're ignoring the new poll showing him up by 8%, or the new NH poll showing him in the lead for the first time in 7 months, or the new SC polls(bump after Oprah).

Yeah, Oprah didn't help at all.

[Tellurian]

37. Finally, you admit the Truth...O+O=0

[Dawgs]

40. Yeah, I'm sure that's how others will see it.

[Tellurian]

42. Eventually, I'm sure..

but you'll deny it anyway. You'll blame me for your mistake..but, I've always liked you anyway, Dawg.

[jefferson_dem]

5. The first NH poll with Obama up, if i'm not mistaken.

Hillary within the MoE, of course.

[Dawgs]

11. I think you're correct. At least not since May.

[Renew Deal]

8. NH has always been a funny state.

It wouldn't surprise me if Obama lost IA and won NH. New Hampshireites have an independent spirit. Sometimes candidates get hot there.

[Adelante]

12. NH Independents 39% of vote - Obama leads by 14%

In the current survey, Obama has a 14-point advantage over Clinton among independent voters likely to vote in the Democratic Primary. That’s up from a 3-point edge among independents in late November. The survey also finds that 39% of the voters on January 8 will be independents. That’s up from 29% in the previous survey.

Among Democrats likely to vote in the Primary, Clinton leads 33% to 29%. She led by eleven points among Democrats in the earlier survey.

One of the great challenges in polling for the New Hampshire Primary is determining who will show up and vote. Independent voters can participate in either the Republican or the Democratic Primary. Currently, by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, independent voters are opting for the Democratic Primary. This participation could be impacted by the results of the Iowa caucuses. Over the past two weeks, the interest of independent voters in both primaries have increased.

Among voters who are “certain” they will vote on January 8, Obama leads Clinton 31% to 27% with John Edwards at 18%.

[geek tragedy]

13. So, is New Hampshire Obama's firewall now?

That, of course, is a joke.

[zulchzulu]

20. It's a Right Wing Conspiracy that Hillary's 20 point leads vaporized in thin air

:sarcasm:

[yurbud]

21. bottom line: what has Hillary said that would motivate people to get their butt out of bed & vote?

The general election is one thing, but primaries are decided more by the base.

Hillary excites no one and is pursuing the Democrats suicidally stupid strategy of trying to win by not offending anyone which also means you don't motivate anyone.

[Tellurian]

23. Hillary can and will beat the Republicans in the GE..

Obama can give NO such guarantee!

[yurbud]

33. could you give some evidence more than a vapid talking point?

[Tellurian]

39. How is what I said, a vapid talking point? Or are you speaking of Obama?

Inquiring minds want to know?

[liskddksil]

29. 2nd Choice numbers important

"John Edwards is currently the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 20%, while Clinton and Richardson are the second choice for 14%.

Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich currently are below the 15% threshold statewide. Among their supporters, Edwards is the second choice for 29% support, Obama 24%, and Clinton15%."
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That could be huge in the overall outcome if these numbers are correct.

[CyberPieHole]

41. Too close to call. Though I prefer to see Obama in second (or last) place...

:kick: and recommend