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Agree or Disagree: If Hillary wins Iowa, the primaries are over

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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:44 PM
Original message
Agree or Disagree: If Hillary wins Iowa, the primaries are over
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Joe the Revelator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:45 PM
Response to Original message
1. Disagree that its over, but it would be in critical condition
nt
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:46 PM
Response to Original message
2. If she wins Iowa, she's likely to win NH
so, yeah, MAYBE. If Obama wins NH and SC after losing Iowa, he's still in the game for Feb. 5.
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quinnox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:46 PM
Response to Original message
3. Not into predictions but a Hillary win in Iowa
would make her chances of winning the nomination that much greater. I'd say Hillary has a 75% chance of winning the nomination right now, and winning Iowa would make it a 90% chance.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:47 PM
Response to Original message
4. Agree-they're over-for EDWARDS.
Edited on Tue Dec-11-07 08:48 PM by jenmito
Obama has the money and support to continue on.
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CaliforniaPeggy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:47 PM
Response to Original message
5. I disagree, unless...
Her margin of victory is too enormous, which would make it difficult to overcome elsewhere...

We shall see...

:shrug:
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Fredda Weinberg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:47 PM
Response to Original message
6. I hope not ... it's a good script while the entertaining writers are
on strike. It's reality programming that means sumpthin' for a change.
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Skip Intro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:47 PM
Response to Original message
7. That would pretty much do it, I think. Maybe a final push in NH and SC
but a miracle would have to happen for the others


pretty much over if Hillary wins Iowa, imho
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AlCzervik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
8. i have no idea, at this point anything could happen.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
9. No, but if she wins SC they probably are n/t
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:53 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. I think an sweep of the early states
is definently possible from Clinton or Obama. If Hillary wins Iowa, she's likely to go on to win NH and possibly SC because the polling is so close. Same thing goes for Obama...
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
10. SHe is going to have to win it convincingly
Edited on Tue Dec-11-07 08:54 PM by Perky
If she wins there....she wins NH unless there is a backlash which is doubtful.

SC is where it will be decided.

If it runs like this Hillary in IA, Hillary in NH, Obama has to win SOuth Carolina

If it runs Hillary, Obama, Hillary has to win SC

If it runs Obama. Hillary. SC might be a draw because it will probably be close and we may be looking at a food fight in Denver.

If it runs Obama, Obama,, SC is decisive, but Hillary has only a small chance of winning because her black support will likely evaporate in SC.

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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:54 PM
Response to Original message
12. I wouldn't close the books until Super Duper Tuesday
That'll be the big test, but a Hillary win in Iowa would certainly give her a huge leg up.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. SUper Tuesday might be interesting in that it is the Party's last chance to
change its mind.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 08:56 PM
Response to Original message
14. Very likely...
If she wins convincingly it is over...

If Obama is leading by a fair margin in the polls leading into the caucuses, and she wins even by a little bit...it is very likely over...

If it is essentially a tie in the polls and she wins...it is likely over...but New Hampshire will have to seal the deal...

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CyberPieHole Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 11:02 PM
Response to Original message
15. Iowa will not guarantee a win for ANY candidate.
So, no, if Hillary were to win, the primaries would continue.
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Tejanocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-11-07 11:04 PM
Response to Original message
16. If she wins Iowa, she'll likely win New Hampshire. If she wins Iowa and New Hampshire, she'll likely
run the table.
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