Insider Advantage SC Poll: Obama 28, Clinton 22, Edwards 14

[BeyondGeography]

Obama Extends Lead in South Carolina

Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff reports


December 10, 2007 — An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey conducted December 8-9 of likely voters in South Carolina’s presidential primary shows Barack Obama extending his lead over Hillary Clinton. The telephone survey of 480 likely voters in the primary was weighted for age, race, and gender. It has a margin of error of 4%

Q. If the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary were held today, would you vote for:

Obama: 28%
Clinton: 22%
Edwards: 14%
Biden: 10%
Richardson: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Dodd: 0%
Gravel: 0%
Undecided: 23%

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Obama’s support among African-Americans rose a bit over the weekend, while Clinton’s dropped. This follows our poll of late last week in which there was a major shift in black voters towards Obama. Edwards lost a small amount, as this likely shifted to undecided.

“However, Obama’s white vote has not moved. Clearly the Oprah Winfrey visit to the state moved African-American voters. The issue now is whether Clinton can eat into some of Edward’s support or reclaim some of her prior African-American support.

Added Lee Bandy of The State newspaper in Columbia, South Carolina, and of Insider Advantage: “I believe these numbers are correct. There has been tremendous shift in the black vote since last week, when people realized that Oprah Winfrey was coming to South Carolina. This is the first political event I’ve ever seen with 30,000 people and tailgaters.”

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1210_74.aspx

[MadBadger]

1. This is great news

GOBAMA!

[loveangelc]

2. who?

who will the undecideds break for in sc??? and in every other state? that is the question. do undecideds this late even vote?

[elizm]

21. Yes, they do. And the undecideds I know say they will go with the one who looks like the winner. n

[gateley]

3. Biden still at 10% EXCELLENT! I LIKE this poll! nt

[Dawgs]

4. Great News!!

K&R

[aquart]

5. The Oprah effect.

Is she holding rallies in all fifty states?

Interesting to see if this is a sustainable phenomenon. She got them to pay attention to him. Will they keep liking what they see?

[MadBadger]

23. Oprah didnt show up until the 9th. What about all those people surveyed on the 8th?

[Nedsdag]

6. Oprah was right.

He IS the one!

[rinsd]

7. Is it me or does this poll undersample the black vote?

Out of 480 LV surveyed, they ended up with 74 black voters.

In their previous poll last week it was 67 black people.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_Early_Dec_SC_Dem_Poll.pdf

I assume they are then weighting responses.

But this struck me as odd since in SC anywhere from 40 to 50% of the primary voters are black.

Why not have polling demographics at least in that ballpark instead of having 70% of the interviewees as whites. :shrug:

[Adelante]

13. I said the same thing on the other one

I don't think the results should be taken at face value unless somebody comes up with a good explanation for that under representation. It doesn't seem reasonable to me, either, rinsd.

[rinsd]

16. It just struck me as odd when I was reviewing the demographic data.

You would think that SC has a sizeable enough portion of black Democrats where they could get a sample from.

If not there, then where? :shrug:

[JackORoses]

14. you realize that by that rationale Hillary is doing even worse, don't you

[rinsd]

18. Not neccessarily but that was not my point.

My point was under sampling a demographic that is traditionally difficult to follow in an area where that demographic is substantial in size seemed odd.

[jenmito]

20. According to the article, it does mean that:

"InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Obama’s support among African-Americans rose a bit over the weekend, while Clinton’s dropped. This follows our poll of late last week in which there was a major shift in black voters towards Obama."

ibid

[jefferson_dem]

8. Awesome.

No wonder the Obama-phobes have been in such a "tizzy" here these past few days.

[Hope And Change]

9. Wow!Thanks for posting this poll.

Obama 08!

[bluestateguy]

10. Who the hell is Insider Advantage?

The number of polls in this campaign is absolutely out of control.

[elizm]

11. Here ya go...

.. Atlanta-based InsiderAdvantage's polls have been praised by national media ranging from CNN’s Judy Woodruff to Fox News’s Bill O’Reilly, and have appeared in Knight-Ridder newspapers, The Washington Post, Washington Times, New York Post, Business Week, US News and World Report, and CBS News/CBS Marketwatch. Nationally syndicated columnist and InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery is a recognized expert on political, legislative and governmental affairs.

http://www.insidersc.com/

[Major Hogwash]

12. Wow, that's weird, the media is saying that Clinton still has a 10 point lead in SC.

At least that is what Blitzer said on CNN just today.

[JackORoses]

15. that's a 10 point National lead

[ClarkUSA]

17. That may have been a poll taken before the Oprah event...

This poll refers to a bump. Lee Bandy is widely considered the dean of SC political reporting - he's a liberal to boot - and his approving
comments gives this poll data more credibility.

[TeamJordan23]

19. Oprah or not, all I know Obama is surging in SC. nm

[Zueda]

22. Now we see...

why all the Hillbots were getting all wild-eyed this weekend.

disclaimer: if you are a Hillary supporter who was not wild-eyed this weekend then the term 'hillbots' does not refer to you.