Mark Penn is spinning like a top: 'We're still winning'

[jefferson_dem]

Clinton pollster: 'We're still winning'
by Jill Zuckman

Manchester, N.H. – Mark Penn, the top strategist to Hillary Clinton, has a new memo out this morning. The sum and substance of it adds up to "we're still winning."

Penn argues that there are so many polls out these days that no one is paying attention to which is which, which is credible and which actually shows a trend one way or another. (And don't mix and match the different polls when making comparisons, he instructs.)

He offers the cognoscenti and the pundits a few reminders. Clinton started out well behind in Iowa and it's now competitive. The new Mason-Dixon poll originally showed her down 9 points in South Carolina, but now has her up by three. Many people seized on the new poll to say the race is tightening there, he said. And last week, three New Hampshire polls showed her with widely varying leads – 14 points, 11 points and 6 points.

"These races are always roller coasters, with so many different polls and so many different results," Penn writes. "So to wrap up – poll reader beware."

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2007/12/clinton_pollster_were_still_wi.html

[sakabatou]

1. Said Custer at Little Big Horn

[oasis]

14. And Hillary's no Sitting Bull but she's still "sitting pretty". (eom)

[BigDDem]

23. Said Mr. 1%

[Progress And Change]

2. penn is right. clinton is winning

Here are the averages.

National: Clinton 42, Obama 24, Edwards 12
Iowa: Obama 28. Clinton 26, Edwards 22
New Hampshire: Clinton 33, Obama 25, Edwards 15
South Carolina: Clinton 33, Obama 26, Edwards 15
Nevada: Clinton 41, Obama 21, Edwards 12
Florida: Clinton 50, Obama 20, Edwards 12

[Imagevision]

5. cCinton is winning?!? - Clinton is clearly showing signs of declining numbers across the board and

with the recent addition of Will Smith to help to educate some more of the voters, Hillary's threat already is showing signs of weakening appeal.

[Progress And Change]

6. she is still ahead so that means she is winning right now

That may change but there is still time. Let's see if the media finally starts to do its job on Obama like they did with Huckabee when he surged. As long as the media (and by logical extension corporations who own and sponsor the media) is behind Obama he is in good shape.

[mod mom]

3. Just finished reading how there's turmoil in Clintonland over Bill:

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/12/report_hillary_aides_privately_furious_with_bill_over_iraq_misstep.php

Sounds like IMPLOSION to me.

[suston96]

10. Implosion? Not really....

That's a commentary on Al Hunt's comments. Al Hunt is a long standing right wing Clintons hater.

[roguevalley]

24. Al Hunt? Not hardly.

[Benhurst]

4. We're in the silly season; but I can tell you who is going to win in Iowa.

Give me a call late on January 3, 2008.

[Bumblebee]

7. and Obama people, including on this list, never spin? Or when they spin,

it is somehow more dignified? Have not noticed any difference but maybe I am just plain blind...

[karynnj]

8. My thoughts on this

1) It's all based on anonymous sources.
2) If true, I think that what has happened is the reality of the tornado, that is Bill Clinton, is being seen. Bill Clinton has been on stage less since 2000 and especially with Bush being an utter disaster, Bill Clinton looked fantastic in retrospect. While he IS far better than Bush, in the last few weeks, we have seen the side of Bill Clinton that was not as attractive.

If anything in the last year he has been less able to control himself than in the 1990s. The genial mask slips to reveal a far less admirable person more often. I can see him blaming the campaign for being inept - that is exactly what he did to both Al Gore and John Kerry. He obviously believes his own mythology, but I recommend anyone who thinks the 1992 campaign was flawless - go to the library and look at the coverage from the beginning of 1992 until the election. He was lucky that Bush was at 33% in early November 1992. If this is true I actually feel a little sorry for HRC.

[Carrieyazel]

9. Hillary's leads are down to single digits in all of the early states

as well as nationally, depending on which polls you're looking at. Obama and Edwards have not moved much, so a lot of Hillary's evaporating lead may have gone to undecided. This thing is a long way from being over.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Here's A Link To National Polls

The only pollster who has her in single digits is Republimussen:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[wyldwolf]

11. Look at the scoreboard

If a team was winning once by a score of 48 to 24 and but has had their lead cut by half, they still lead and are still winning.

[Perry Logan]

12. Thanks for putting the spin on Mark Penn's spin. Now I have to lie down for a while.

[Occam Bandage]

13. He's right. Clinton is still winning.

Consider a baseball game between the Yankees and White Sox. The score was 7-3 Yankees in the sixth inning. Now it's the eighth, and the White Sox have rallied a bit. The score is now 7-6, and the Sox have a man on first. The White Sox are threatening, but the Yankees are still winning.

[Cameron27]

15. lol

good analogy.

[HughMoran]

16. Seems like a reasonable analysis to me

I guess if I was specifically an Obama supporter I might describe that as spin, but since I have not made up my mind yet, it seems like a reasonable and normal analysis by Penn.

[SaveElmer]

17. Other than you don't like Mark Penn...what he says is correct...

Or is Obama now "inevitable" ?

[Carrieyazel]

19. Of course Obama is not inevitable. His polls have not moved for months.

And in fairness to Hillary, she was not ahead by massive margins in any of the earliest voting states, except Florida. So in reality, this race is basically where it was months ago. With Hillary holding leads, but not big leads.

[suston96]

20. We is winning, fer sure.....

This is getting boring..........



http://www.pollster.com/08-US2-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Try this one also: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

[rockybelt]

21. Getting boring?

It has been boring for the last entire year. People arfe just saying anything to pollsters any more. I mean how long is anybody's attention span.I just wish to hell they would all just shut up for at least six months and give the same amount of energy they seem to have for ending this war and holding people accountable for it.

[Imagevision]

22. Penn will still be spinning when Hillary comes in third in Iowa...