Al Hunt: Tension in Hillaryland Grows as Plan Goes Awry

[BeyondGeography]

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- To appreciate Hillary Clinton's fundamental political problem, consider the 11 Democrats from Philadelphia who gathered last week to discuss the U.S. presidential race, almost all of whom would vote for her in a general election.

The focus group was moderated by an expert on such forums, Democratic pollster Peter Hart. The participants were informed and enthusiastic about their party's prospects, had no interest in the Republicans or third-party candidates, and were about equally balanced between front-runners Clinton and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois.When Hart pushed the group during a two-hour conversation about the strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates, a different picture emerged. Obama, they worried, can't win the nomination; voters aren't ready for an African-American president (a point expressed most directly by the two black women participants), and he may not be sufficiently experienced.

A couple of victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would cure most of those problems. The concerns about Clinton, 60, a New York senator, are that she is devious, calculating and, fairly or not, a divisive figure in American politics. Those are a lot tougher to overcome. It was revealing, too, when Hart pushed them to envision these senators as leaders of the country or, as he put it, their ``boss.'' Obama, they say, would be inspirational, motivating, charismatic and compassionate. After praising Clinton's experience and intelligence, they say she would be demanding, difficult, maybe even a little scary.

Candor and authenticity were repeatedly cited. ``I don't feel like I look at her and see someone who's telling me the whole truth,'' says Allison Lowrey, a 30-year-old human- resources consultant. ``I'd like to see her approach a problem without the polls'' helping her make her decision, says Andrew Alebergo, a 39-year-old tanning-salon operator.

Even strong Hillary supporters acknowledge the electorate's deep-seated concerns. ``She is walking a fine tightrope now, because she is such a divisive personality,'' says Lynda Connelly, a thoughtful 58-year-old Red Cross manager. She plans to vote for Clinton while fearing that, if elected, ``the right- wing noise machine is going to do everything it can to derail her.''

``Obama fits the year in terms of aspirations and hopes,'' he says. ``When these voters talk about America today, they want a picture that almost cries out for Obama. But post-9/11, these voters may not be willing to take a chance. They need reassurance that Obama will be ready from Day One.''

Conversely, Clinton, in trying to get to the top of the mountain, Hart says, ``has only looked at one face of the mountain -- her experience, the emphasis on strength and toughness. She hasn't recognized the other side of the mountain; she hasn't allowed voters to see who she is and her personal dimension.''

The Clinton camp has similar research; things are tense in Hillaryland these days...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anRcoLyfN0VM

[proudmoddemo]

1. Hillary's Moment was 2008

Hillary's moment was 2004. She passed it up. It's too bad, she might've won. Presidential politics is about timing. The timing for Hillary isn't right in 2008. I don't see how she wins the Presidency. Even if she gets the nomination, Huckabee will still fit the year better than her.

[cali]

3. huh???

only someone who really isn't keyed into either the mood of the country or Huckabee's history could say that he fits the year better than Clinton. I don't want her as the nominee, but she stands an excellent chance against Huckabee.

[TwilightGardener]

4. I second your "huh". Hucky is exactly what the country WON'T want--he's George W. the Second.

Just because fundie GOPers like him (now, before his dirt is well-known), doesn't mean the rest of the country is going to--and I still doubt he'll be the nominee, anyway.

[proudmoddemo]

25. Wrong--Bush Recycled and Remade

Huckabee is much more well spoken than Bush. He comes across as genuine. And he has a moderate, preacher persona. A very, very dangerous combination. We underestimate him at our peril.

[proudmoddemo]

13. No

I am pretty tuned in. People want somebody that is genuine. Not Hillary's strong suit. Huckabee is genuine--genuinely nuts but still genuine.

[HughMoran]

16. Hasn't there been enough "genuinely nuts" already?

I can't imagine people could be so oblivious.

[Colobo]

19. I can. Huckabee is likeable and knows the most obscure Bible verses

you can think of. Millions of Americans fall for that shit.

[HughMoran]

23. Yeah, Americans are suckers for those who are good at ancient mythology

I always liked Greek mythology myself, guess I'm out of step with America!

:D

[krkaufman]

28. Well, you're not too well "tuned in" to Mike Burkabee, then.

The guy has been lying right and right for days now, from the Dumond issue, to the Iran NIE, and he's only been getting any real attention for a week or two.

Bush was genuine. People want competence.

[proudmoddemo]

30. Bush was genuine?

Yeah right. People don't want competence. That is what they may have wanted in 2004. Now, people want authenticity. Huckabee may be lying, but he's good at it. Underestimate him at your peril.

[krkaufman]

33. You make my point.

Bush was genuine by the same standard you're applying to Huckabee... he was lying, but was good at it.

Burkabee's lies won't be as easily glossed-over, and his association with the Christian Right will not be an advantage in the general election. For which he can thank Bush, on both counts.

[babylonsister]

17. 2008, 2004, huh? And Huckabee? Are you on the right board? nt

[proudmoddemo]

21. Not saying I'd vote for him and '08 was a typo

2004 was Hillary's moment. This just isn't the right climate for her to be running for President in.

As for Huckabee, I would not vote for him. Just saying that we're fools to under-estimate him. He is a genuine George W. Bush (who says the same things, but thought to really be a poser on the far-right). Millions do believe this junk. And Huckabee is a compelling spokesperson for his beliefs, being a Minister and all.

[babylonsister]

22. Why was it Hillary's moment? She only had a few years' experience,

people would have thought she was nuts.

Any you didn't say in your OP what you're saying now. Which is it? If you're enamored with Huckabee, you're on the wrong board. Apparently he's compelling judging from the polling I've seen, but I think the reason for his popularity is because all the other candidates suck so bad! Wait til they get a whiff of Huckabee; he's got many skeletons, and I think he's scary because of his religion.

[proudmoddemo]

24. I was being objective

In that Huckabee will fit the year--the need for authenticity--better than Hillary will in 2008.

I will NOT vote for Huckabee. That doesn't mean that I shouldn't be very concerned about him, or think that he is a very formidable candidate. Quite contrarie. Just because we don't like what Huckabee says, and think it's bat-shit nuts doesn't mean that others won't be attracted to it. He'd be a very formidable candidate in a general election. He is, by far, the Republicans best candidate. He's a well spoken George W. Bush.

Just because I think Huckabee could may--probably even would win--against Hillary doesn't make me a freeper. It's just an objective look at the facts.

2004 was Hillary's moment because it fit her style better. It was an election still defined in the terms of the 1990s. It was an election where people were willing to look the other way at what comes off as crass political positions and not standing firmly for things in order to win. Hillary's style would've worked better back then.

2008 is the first election of a new era. A realignment happened in 2006--people favor authenticity and want people who put the pollsters under the bus. That isn't Hillary, and nor can it be. It could be Obama, Edwards, or Richardson. See Andrew Sullivan's piece in the December Atlantic for a great analysis of this.

Huckabee is a very strong candidate. If you're objective, you'd realize that.

[babylonsister]

29. Sorry, but you're full of poop.

Where WERE you in 2004? 2004 had nothing to do with the 1990's, it was all about terror and who'd be best at combatting it. It was also about the rethugs refining their negative campaign tactics, throw in a lot of terra, a fixed election, and voila'. That was 2004.

2004 was Hillary's moment because it fit her style better. It was an election still defined in the terms of the 1990s. It was an election where people were willing to look the other way at what comes off as crass political positions and not standing firmly for things in order to win. Hillary's style would've worked better back then.

[krkaufman]

26. Your subject doesn't match your body.

As for your point, I don't think she stood any better a chance in 2004, with 4 fewer years in the Senate and that much closer to her decision to vote for the Iraq force authorization.

[proudmoddemo]

31. Typo

I know, typo, sorry.

[krkaufman]

32. Right. Didn't know if the edit timeout had expired, yet.

[krkaufman]

27. Re: "Huckabee will still fit the year better"...

Are we talking about 2008? I don't think so.

Now, if you're talking 1008, I'd agree.

[aquart]

2. But the "rightwing noise machine" will be sooo quiet for Obama.

I love these insane fantasies, don't you?

[Renew Deal]

5. I think it shows what a Clinton presidency would be like.

They would be so obsessed with the press that they would desperately over-react to every situation to avoid "looking bad." This would be bad for the nation.

[geek tragedy]

6. Hillary Rodham Nixon. n/t

[Renew Deal]

7. lol, astute observation

I think you see it in Bush Jr. too. These people get in and want to correct the wrongs of the first time around. Jr. wanted to look tough, so he would never look weak. He also wanted to do anything to get re-elected, which his dad couldn't accomplish. For Hillary, it's to keep the media in check, and to correct the mistakes of Hillarycare.

[Bitwit1234]

8. President to be Hillary Clinton

has weathered 20 years of republican vitriol and flaming. She has weathered the last year of the Obamaites flaming and slurring and she will make it to the presidency.....

[BeyondGeography]

9. Sounds like she'll be a little tired after all that

[kestrel91316]

10. I'm always amazed how the overwhelming majority of attacks against

ALL the Dem candidates are posted by DUers who are completely unfamiliar names..........and who appear to have no track record of participating in DU in any meaningful way other than to attack.

Curiouser and curiouser.......

[BeyondGeography]

11. Yeah...Al Hunt, he's a newbie

:eyes:

[Lerkfish]

12. it would be nice to have all the candidates scrutinized, but

I would say, regardless of the source, this does highlight some valid concerns:
especially "fairly or not, a divisive figure in american politics"

I would also say that her attempts to be on both sides of certain issues rings a little hollow.

Now, it would be nice to have a similar scrutiny of other candidates, possibly in the same thread somewhere.

For example:
Obama is strong on abstract polemics, like "hope" and whatnot, but that in and of itself is not going to run this country.
Rightly or wrongly, Edwards is labeled as an elite lawyer (as if 99 percent of politicians aren't), but he's not doing much to counter that.

[babylonsister]

20. Hope ~

can't I hope for a president who has integrity and intelligence to get the best people he can in his camp and do the right thing for a change? 'Hope' won't run the country, but a person who I know will do the best he can with his brain as opposed to the 'no-brainer' we're currently dealing with, is sexy to me. I like Obama and feel I can trust him. I don't get that with all candidates.
I am a Dem and will vote Dem, but I have missed 'hope' and it feels good to feel a smidgen of it. I'd also be happy with almost any Dem as compared to the horror show that is the rethugs.

[Lerkfish]

38. that's ok, but its an intangible. If you'll recall, Bush promised us the "adults"

would be in charge and he would return legitimacy to the white house....or words to that effect.

Those weren't anything but feel good rhetoric placeholders. If those placeholders are eventually filled with something good, then fine. But for now, they are empty and vague and try to manipulate visceral feelings instead of logical discernment.

just IMHO.

[ClarkUSA]

14. Their bad karma is biting them in the ass

It's about damn time, too.

[mtnsnake]

15. Hart's mountain analogy is flawed. He should stick to the water & leave the mtns to me!

Hillary is doing just fine worrying about only side of the mountain. She only has to climb one side to get to the top. :smoke:

[Andromeda]

36. That's good!

One side,huh? I like that!

[Stephanie]

18. Shake up? Podesta as campaign manager?

Holy cow. Would he even do it?

[babylonsister]

35. New knowledge for me here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3819762&mesg_id=3820184

[BenDavid]

34. Maybe Mrs Rodham should walk over to Al Hunt as G.W.Bush

did and say to AL, "“You fucking son of a bitch, “I saw what you wrote. We’re not going to forget this.” For some reason Al and Judy have been kissing W's ass these last 7 to 8 years......

[Andromeda]

37. I remember that.

Haven't seen too much of Al and Judy lately.