Ras POLL: Hillary 38, Obama 28, Edwards 11

[jefferson_dem]

TREND: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[Colobo]

1. Clinton stalled in the high 30s, Obama is rising!

[jefferson_dem]

2. And JE is at his lowest mark since early November.

n/t

[suston96]

14. Yah but......

Gotta compare with other polls......

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Hillary Clinton leads among men with 42%, followed by John Edwards at 17% and Barack Obama at 16%. Clinton leads among women with 48%, followed by Obama at 19% and Edwards at 11%.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/

Hillary Clinton holds her own in New Hampshire among likely Democratic primary voters: After a considerable drop in support in last month’s poll, Hillary Clinton’s lead over her Democratic rivals for the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary has steadied. Last month, Clinton saw her lead cut in half against her nearest competitor, Barack Obama. But, in this current poll, there is little difference between her support now and a month ago. In fact, the gap between the two top contenders is statistically unchanged. 37% of likely Democratic presidential primary voters currently support Senator Clinton followed by 23% for Senator Obama. Former Senator John Edwards receives 18%.

[wyldwolf]

3. Clinton has risen 5 points in 4 days, Obama 2 points in 4 days

[jefferson_dem]

4. Hillary down four points, Obama up eight...in the last month.

The trend looks rather tasty from here.

[JackORoses]

6. actually, since 11/28 she has dropped 2 and he is up 10

looks pretty good for the O

[rinsd]

8. Nice cherry pick. Why not go a day earlier so you can claim an 11 point surge.

:eyes:

[JackORoses]

9. the reason I chose that date is because it was the first time Hillary dropped below 40%

Seems like a pretty defining moment to me.

I'm sorry you react so badly to your candidate floundering,
but it's for the best, really.

You only wish that there were a few cherries left to pick on Hill's tree.
No good news in the numbers, so you attack me instead. Just what Hillary would do.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. You Have The Passive-Aggressive Mode Of Attack Down To An Art

Props

[rinsd]

13. 11/28 Hillary at 40%, Obama at 18%. 11/29 Hillary 38%, Obama 24%.

You cherry picked one poll to make Obama look better. You;ve done this in the past and got nailed on it.

"I'm sorry you react so badly to your candidate floundering, but it's for the best, really."

LOL. She's up 4 points in the last week when you stated she was done for and nothing short of miracle would save her.

"You only wish that there were a few cherries left to pick on Hill's tree.
No good news in the numbers, ."

This poll is a good sign for Hillary. :shrug:

"so you attack me instead. Just what Hillary would do"

You got shit because you were dishonest. You're mad now because once again I showed how dishonest you are.

I won't tarnish the Obama campaign by associating you with it.

[JackORoses]

16. you would rather call me dishonest than address the fact that your candidate is not doing well

I'm not trying to make Obama look good, he's not even my first choice.
But I cannot disguise the fact that he is leading in IA,
or that Hillary is losing ground to him in NH, SC, and now it seems Nevada as well.

I cannot hide that she was consistently polling above 40% in the Ras National polls with Obama in the teens and this is no longer the case. She has lost ground, he has gained. This is evident.

There are reasons for all of these occurrences, and they have nothing to do with me.
I'm just pointing out the obvious.

"She's up 4 points in the last week when you stated she was done for and nothing short of miracle would save her."

Yet everywhere else she is down.
Are you one of those who feel that Hill doesn't need IA, NH or SC to win?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. What If She Wins NV, FL, And MI?

I know they aren't awarding delegates but I don't think the media is going to ignore the Florida results....

[JackORoses]

19. Is this why she stayed on the ballot in FL and MI? If so then they have been worried for a while now

The only problem with this scheme is that people can tell the difference between a real contest and one where you're the only candidate on the ballot.

Not only will these be hollow victories, they will garner her no delegates to the convention.

Stinks of Desperation. This will be the angle that the Media plays, especially if she has already lost IA and NH.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. You Should Do Some Research

All the candidates are on the ballot in FL and one can just as easily argue they took their names off the MI ballot because they were afraid they would get their asses kicked...If you look at MI and FL polls HRC was always way, way , way ahead but the race was always close in IA going back to last June!

If you want I'll provide documentation...

[rinsd]

21. Who else took themselves off the ballot in FL?

I'll make it easy for you. Everyone running for the nomination is on the FL ballot.

The taking of names off the MI ballot was cheap political theater that those short sighted enough to do so are gonna have to spend a great deal of time explaining should they make the GE.

"The only problem with this scheme is that people can tell the difference between a real contest and one where you're the only candidate on the ballot."

Which is why MI won't matter that much. But FL and NV could be factors.

"Not only will these be hollow victories, they will garner her no delegates to the convention."

Victories of perception leading to Sooper Dooper Tuesday.

[JackORoses]

24. you know that Hillary is the only Dem trying to win these two

And it is obvious now why she left herself these safeties open.
Her internal polling likely demonstrated the Trend towards Obama weeks ago.

Now, she is betting everything on Super Tuesday and the hopes that people will ignore losses in IA, NH, and SC all while paying close attention to non-victories in FL and MI.

Victories of Perception vs. Real Victories

Sure sounds like a real winning strategy to me. ;)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. How Is She Trying To Win Florida?

Democratic candidates are prohibited from campaigning there but I suspect you already knew that...

[rinsd]

27. So how is Hillary trying to win those two?

"Now, she is betting everything on Super Tuesday and the hopes that people will ignore losses in IA, NH, and SC all while paying close attention to non-victories in FL and MI."

See this is why you are dishonest. No one said that victories in FL and MI would cover up losses elsewhere. What was said is that FL (and to a lesser extent MI) will be a factor regardless of the situation with the delegates. Also there is NV where Hillary has a large lead.

[JackORoses]

29. by remaining on the ballot in MI, when all others removed themselves

"What was said is that FL (and to a lesser extent MI) will be a factor regardless of the situation with the delegates."

Yes, they may play a role, but far less of a factor since there are no delegates, right?

Do you honestly think they will affect people more than IA, NH, and SC?

"Also there is NV where Hillary has a large lead. "

Not according to Mason-Dixon.

[rinsd]

31. Dodd remained on the MI ballot and he was the one who invented the pledge for Iowa.

“We are committed to the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire going first, and we signed the four-state pledge to hopefully prevail upon the DNC and the state parties to add clarity to that situation. However, it does not benefit any of us if we are the nominee to pull our name off the ballot and slight Michigan voters.”

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/10/dodds_also_staying_on_the_mich.php

Kucinich will be on the ballot as well because his campaign did not properly withdraw his name.

Maybe you should look these things up before making easily disproved statements.

"Yes, they may play a role, but far less of a factor since there are no delegates, right?

Do you honestly think they will affect people more than IA, NH, and SC?"

No, and neither did I say such. The argument has to do with FL being a factor even though the delegate situation is unsettled. And a report of Hillary winning the FL election will be a factor.

"Also there is NV where Hillary has a large lead.

Not according to Mason-Dixon."

Mason had a small sample size and large MOE. Even then 8 points is a nice lead. Not as nice as the 27 point one in ARG's poll taken the same time. But still sizable.

[JackORoses]

32. so let's make this clear

Do you think Hillary stayed on the ballot in MI because she was worried about the early states?

Do you believe that Hillary will still win the nomination due to the 'FL factor' + NV even if she loses IA, NH, and SC?

[rinsd]

34. No, I think she stayed on the ballot because she saw it as short sighted political theater.

The same way Dodd saw it.

The reason the other candidates dropped out there was becasue they knew they would not be able to campaign there because of DNC sanctions. Who do you think wins a name recognition contest? So the other candidates looking to avoid providing Hillary with not just one but two major state victories that while disputed in terms of delegates would still be a "buzz" factor. They didn't do this with FL because in FL to have your name taken off the ballot you have to swear that you are no longer running for the nomination.

"Do you believe that Hillary will still win the nomination due to the 'FL factor' + NV even if she loses IA, NH, and SC?"

It would depend on the margins of loss but it certainly would still be possible. I think it will be difficult for either Hillary or Obama to go thru the 1st 4 primaries with only a single victory and it would likely be fatal to the rest of the campaigns.

[rinsd]

18. I can see clouds of dust, you are backtracking so fast.

"She has lost ground, he has gained. This is evident."

Which begs the question why you felt the need to manipulate data points to exaggerate that. :shrug:

"you would rather call me dishonest than address the fact that your candidate is not doing well"

No, I call you dishonest because you have shown yourself to be exactly that.

My candidate is in excellent position to capture the nomination and go onto to beat the GOP. Her position was better a month ago but she remains the Democrat to beat.

[JackORoses]

22. you suffer from the same need to declare premature victory that your candidate does

"Which begs the question why you felt the need to manipulate data points to exaggerate that."

I don't have to manipulate anything. I just post the numbers and they demonstrate the trend.

So because you cannot disprove the trend, you say I have manipulated the numbers.
Please, feel free to post any numbers that demonstrate that the Trend does not exist.

"Her position was better a month ago"

And in 4 weeks she'll be dreaming of her position today.

[rinsd]

23. Where did I declare premature victory?

Premature hyperbolic declarations pulled from one's ass are your department. Not mine.

"I don't have to manipulate anything. I just post the numbers and they demonstrate the trend."

"So because you cannot disprove the trend, you say I have manipulated the numbers."

I say you manipulated the data point because you did. You picked a likely outlier for Obama(a 3 day period when his polling was off for Rasmussen) then declare his return to a more normative polling as a great surge.

"Please, feel free to post any numbers that demonstrate that the Trend does not exist."

Capitalizing the word trend does not lend it authority. And though it will need some more polling to confirm it, it looks as if the trend is petering out and Hillary is regaining her footing.

[JackORoses]

28. you declare a premature victory in your attempt to prove me incorrect

"I say you manipulated the data point because you did. "

You can look at the data a million ways and see the same trend I am attempting to demonstrate.

Between Nov 1 and Nov 28, Obama never polled closer than 15% points behind Hillary.

Since then he has closed this gap to 10% or less due to his gains and Hill's losses.

"it looks as if the trend is petering out and Hillary is regaining her footing. "

and you base this on what?

You must think bringing Chelsea out on the trail is going to turn the tide.

[rinsd]

33. By disproving your theory that the election is over for Hillary, I am declaring her victorious?

:rofl:

"Between Nov 1 and Nov 28, Obama never polled closer than 15% points behind Hillary.

Since then he has closed this gap to 10% or less due to his gains and Hill's losses."


So why did you use outlier data points to exaggerrate rather then writing what you just did. :shrug:

"it looks as if the trend is petering out and Hillary is regaining her footing. "

and you base this on what?"

Ras and other national polls that show her drop may be over. It will take another week of polling for me to be more confident in that assessment.

"You must think bringing Chelsea out on the trail is going to turn the tide."

Turn the tide? Not sure about that but Chelsea is an excellent campaigner for her mom.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Taking Pot Shots At Chelsea

That's almost Limbaugheque...

[Adelante]

5. The weekly Ras ending 12/9/07

In some ways, the Democratic Presidential Nomination is the same as it’s been all year. Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner, Barack Obama is a serious challenger, and John Edwards is somewhat in the running. For Obama or Edwards to have a chance at the nomination, they have to win in Iowa.

But, while the words are somewhat similar, the entire dynamic of the race has a different feel to it. For one thing, it’s becoming more and more clear that Obama or Edwards could win in Iowa. Add to that the fact that Clinton’s lead is declining in New Hampshire and has disappeared in South Carolina and the chances for Clinton to recover from an Iowa defeat are a bit less promising than they were a month ago.

Ultimately, however, it’s not the numbers that make the race seem different. What’s changed is the Clinton campaign.

Up until the night of October 30, the former First Lady’s campaign had been a textbook model of a disciplined campaign following a clear game plan. Then, famously, the candidate stumbled on a question about drivers’ licenses for undocumented workers. But, it wasn’t the debate answer that caused problems as much as the campaign’s response to it. A week later, on CNN, Clinton still couldn’t answer the question directly. A story that should have been handled in a day with a clarification and a new story line became the new narrative of the race.

-snip

For the seven days ending December 9, Hillary Clinton earns 35% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 26% followed by John Edwards at 14%. Bill Richardson is at 5%, Joe Biden attracts 3%, Dennis Kucinich 2%. Chris Dodd and Mike Gravel are at 1% while 12% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided (review history of weekly results).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Edwards At 11 Percent

This is great news for Hillary...

Edwards will now have to go negative, big time, on either Hillary or Obama... Either way Hillary wins...If he starts bashing Obama his numbers will come down and if he starts bashing Hillary , then Hillary can go back in attack mode , defending herself by counterpunching...

Both Clintons are at their best and most popular when they are being attacked...

[karynnj]

36. Actually the risk if she attacks Edwards now that he is down

near his low for the year - is that she knocks him into single digits and causes him to implode with his votes going anywhere but to Clinton.

The second risk is that it follows all the "mean little girl" depictions from the kindergarten joke/attack. I don't know how this plays among men, but I think most women had some nasty mean girl they had to deal with at some point in their elementary or high school life. This is not a good subliminal image.

[Perry Logan]

11. Really? To listen to the Obama folks, you'd think he was ahead.

[hayu_lol]

12. No, so far, Obama is not ahead...but ...

Oprah is climbing fast. LOL!

The famous star of a daytime show that has multitudes of housewives locked into Alpha wave stability.

Interesting phenomenon however.

[suston96]

15. And while we are at it - Hillary being negative... poll?

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/10/new-nytimescbs-poll-explain-dont-attack/#more-3247

December 10, 2007, 1:53 pm
New NYTimes/CBS Poll: Explain, Don’t Attack

By Dalia Sussman

The latest New York Times/CBS News poll finds voters give the presidential candidates positive marks on at least one score at this stage in their campaigns: They credit them with spending more time explaining what they would do as president rather than attacking their opponents.

Still, while no candidate tested in the poll was perceived as attacking more than explaining, some candidates were given more credit than others.

Hillary Clinton was viewed as running the most positive campaign of the leading Democratic candidates. About seven in 10 Democratic primary voters said she has spent more time explaining, four times the number who said she has spent more time attacking.

Six in 10 Democrats said Barack Obama has been explaining, compared with 25 percent who said he has been attacking. Fewer, 45 percent, said John Edwards has spent more time explaining his positions, while 29 percent said he has spent more time being negative.

[BigDDem]

25. When will Obama throw in the towel?

[elizm]

30. In your dreams...

:rofl: