Obama has peaked too soon and now it is expected he will win Iowa

[Herman Munster]

He would have been much better off if Hillary was leading all the polls prior to Iowa and then had a "surprise" victory over Hillary.

It's no surprise now. It's expected he wins Iowa. The latest intrade prediction market has his chances of winning Iowa at 53.9% compared to 37.0% for Hillary.

The expectations have been lowered for Hillary. The smart money and intelligentsia has all but written her off in Iowa.

That will make a win by her all the more impressive. You want to talk about the big MO? For Hillary, Iowa is basically the election. She wins it. It's all over. No other candidate can say that.

So let's say she loses it. She still has tens of millions of dollars and a nationwide campaign infrastructure to compete. Also, the second Obama wins Iowa the press meme changes. Clinton becomes the underdog and the Clinton's are always best when down. But also, the press will want a horserace and begin tearing Obama down like they did Dean and Hillary the last few weeks. Obama will start to come under the scrutiny Hillary has been under all year as the frontrunner and then the real "fun" begins.

[DS1]

1. *vomits in shoes*

[Herman Munster]

2. the truth is always difficult to bear

[Mojorabbit]

9. .....

Snort. LOL.

[David Dunham]

3. Correct. Hillary can now afford to lose !A. She will win NH, though.

[Joe the Revelator]

8. Hillary can't afford to lose anywhere....

She was suppose to win this in a walk. If she loses anywhere, that shows the chinks in her armor and knocks off more of her support in other states.

Plus, Obama will get a large bump if he wins Iowa. He'll start riding the wave.

[David Dunham]

12. She can afford to lose IA and even NH.

[Joe the Revelator]

15. Thanks for the deep insite, however wishful thinking does not make things fact.

[David Dunham]

17. Most people in states other than IA will favor Hillary over Obama

The IA caucuses are freakish.

[Joe the Revelator]

21. Once again you back this up with nothing.

Thanks for trying though.

[earthlover]

27. she's melting...melting....I guess you are ALREADY making excuses for losing both!

She will not disappoint. SHe will lose both.

[Joe the Revelator]

4. Last I checked, Obama has a "nationwide campaign infrastructure and millions of dollars" as well

Why act like he doesn't?

Plus, Hillary was suppose to walk away with the nomination. If she loses Iowa, the people who are clinging to that hope will turn on her.

Also, I hate people who cite Intrade.

[Herman Munster]

7. hillary has never said it wouldn't be difficult to win the nomination

even bill said they always thought the primary would be much more competitive for her than the general election. So this "inevitability" meme is a myth. Hillary never said she was inevitable. Never acted like she was inevitable. Never planned her campaign like she was inevitable.

[Joe the Revelator]

13. Obama never said he was going to walk away with Iowa either...

Like your OP, it's all in what people THINK you are going to do. Most people in non-early primary states still buy into the "Hillary is inevitable" meme.

It cuts both ways.

[shawmut]

5. Is she going to call herself the comeback kid when she finishes second? n/t

[RiverStone]

6. both could lose, and Edwards could be the surprise!

Just noticed you did not mention him...

[Catchawave]

10. I'd even bet money on it

:evilgrin:

[Herman Munster]

14. Edwards can't win

He doesn't have the money. And if he did win Iowa, he will lose NH and be a has-been. An Edwards win is like a Hillary win. All it does is split the anti-hillary vote and muddle the playing field so Hillary wins.

[itsrobert]

11. Linda? n/t

n/t

[BootinUp]

16. I like this spin. lol.

[suston96]

18. QED December 8, 2003

That would be December 8, 2003.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=198

[tekisui]

20. Ah, some perspective.

It's wide open, everybody.

[tekisui]

19. Obama hasn't peaked.--eom

[Renew Deal]

22. Obama is trailing in all polls today.

So I don't know what you're talking about.

[Herman Munster]

23. not the polls the media talks about over and over again

Reality is an illusion.

[Bullet1987]

24. Peaked too soon?

I didn't know he had peaked yet...I think he's still rising. He'll peak just before Christmas and go into the Iowa Caucus strong.

[mtnsnake]

25. You're definitely on to something.

good logic, Herman

:thumbsup:

[madrchsod]

26. it is still to close to call

it should`t be but it is. hillary had iowa won but she was tripped up by her staff`s mistakes.

[earthlover]

28. "Clinton becomes the underdog and the Clinton's are always best when down"

No, Obama becomes the Giant Killer!

Hillary has never been the under dog. She has been the prohibitive favorite.

How do you spin being humbled by being taken off the inevitable mantel and placed in the underdog column as being a positive thing?

Spin away.

But most candidates in the lead would prefer to remain the favored one....