congressional GOP primaries... a barometer for the party correcting itself or imploding.

[salin]

With all of the attention going to the presidential primaries - and it is rather a lark to watch and read about the latest GOP presidential candidate implosion - I venture to suggest that the current GOP is going to crumble across the next two election cycles unless it moderates itself back to the pre-Reagan ideologue/demogaugery which has locked candidates into specific positions that are viewed as more and more extremist and less mainstream than ever.

Either the party is going to moderate itself (per the candidates that prevail in congressional primaries), or the dominate rightwing axis of the religious right and neoconacrazy foreign policynuts will win primaries and lose more seats as independent voters who were sometimes skeptical of the rightwing rhetoric, are increasingly appalled by it. This is particularly true in this current congressional cycle with SO MANY republican seats open due to retirements. If the rightwing wins the primaries and loses a lot of the elections - than the next cycle (2010) could bring the beginning to the end of the GOP as we know it. Not only would the power coalitions within the party fall apart - they would likely turn on one-another as the point of blame for the failure of their party to win elections, with none willing to take the blame for not being responsive to significant changes on the ground per voter's priorities. I seriously wonder if we are at the beginning (or in the middle) of one of those very rare times in history when a major political party begins to falter and eventually dies out to be replaced by a emergent political party. And who knows what that party would look like or pay homage to.

So with that in mind I ask folks - are you in or near an open seat district? Or are you in or near a toss-up district (incumbent running - but viewed as a contestable race)? If so what do the local GOP candidates "look" like (not appearance, but in terms of to which GOP coalition do they pander)? Far right? Moderate? I think we need to start watching these races, early. History could be in the making.

[existentialist]

1. interesting speculation

I remember that in the Virginia elections just passed the right wing did not like a moderate Republican state legislator, and opposed him in the primary with the result that he was beaten in the primary, and a Democrat won in the general, and with that seat went the majority.

If this is happening elsewhere too then your analysis is validated.

[salin]

2. It will be interesting to see who is put up

(or has someone been put up already) for Hastert's seat in Illinois, as well as for Henry Hyde's seat (I think he was still sitting in Congress this term when he died). Both seats have been considered safe republican seats. But if the GOP puts up far right candidates, will those seats suddenly come in play?