http://mydd.com/story/2007/12/8/193031/682Early state momentum... and oh yeah, Iran
by Transplanted Texan, Sat Dec 08, 2007 at 07:30:30 PM EST
This is part of the campaign blogger series for Joe Biden. It's a day late because I'm a college kid with finals and a tardy slip from Jerome.
As I write this post, the top five headlines for "AP: Politics" on Yahoo! News are as follows:
Oprahs's star power shines for Obama
Huckabee wanted to isolate AIDS patients
Clinton's mother, daughter hit trail
Former president campaigns in SC
Schilling pitches McCain for president
What's wrong with this picture?
Only one of those headlines kinda sorta maybe addresses substance. The other four are all about who's campaigning for whom, and two of those are even in the overall Top Stories. I can't say this obsession with celebrity is one I fully understand - we've got the NIE on Iran, the CIA destroying evidence, a Gulf Coast still in crisis, and a revived Middle East peace dialogue... and we're talking about WHAT?
Joe Biden is often the responsible adult in the room, so I'm happy to report that his focus has indeed been on Iran. You may have seen his 2600-word Huffington Post column... on Thursday. Here's the introduction, I encourage you to read the rest:
I want to address two questions many are asking. Is war with Iran inevitable? And can we avoid the other stark alternative - an Iran armed with nuclear weapons? Earlier this week, the intelligence community released what's called a National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities. The conclusions are, figuratively speaking, explosive.
The Estimate found that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and, as of the middle of this year, had not restarted it. Iran did resume work on uranium enrichment, which is the most likely method it would use to produce the fissile material for a bomb. But at its current pace, the NIE concluded that Iran could produce that material no earlier than the end of 2009 - but that this is very unlikely. More likely is that Iran will be capable of making enough material for a bomb sometime between 2010 and 2015.
This means that the answers to the questions I posed are no, war is not inevitable and yes, we can prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. There is still time for diplomatic engagement and economic pressure to work. There is still time to protect our interests without using force.
A number of folks have told me they would love to vote for a candidate with this kind of foreign policy insight, but they also want to vote for someone with a chance of winning. No worries, I say, Biden's still your guy. The campaign has good news in three separate early states this past week:
New Hampshire: The best news here in my state is the endorsement of the state House Asst. Majority Leader and Chair of the Cheshire County Democrats, Rep. Dan Eaton. Eaton is joining the campaign as state co-chair. This is great news. I've worked with a number of our current state staff, and Eaton will make a huge contribution to an already solid team. Biden also received the endorsements of two more Massachusetts state representatives who will help with the NH effort. Finally, Biden received a great write-up from the Concord Monitor's editor called, "Biden a smart guy who has lived his family values." I've written here before about the tragedy in his past, but here's a new tidbit:
As for real fortune, Biden prides himself, at least publicly, with being one of the poorest members of the Senate and the only major presidential candidate who is not a millionaire. As of last March, his net worth was $100,000 to $150,000. He says he didn't know when he entered public life that the point was to make a lot of money...
My guess is that for the small crowd that came to meet Joe Biden, the impression he left was personal. Beneath all his smooth talk and name-dropping, Biden is a paragon of family values - the genuine article, not the cheap imitation that often mucks up American politics. Reliance on family has borne him through tragedy, fear and grief.
South Carolina: We don't get a lot of non-Oprah/Bill news out of South Carolina, but the new Strategic Vision poll does have Biden at 10%, right behind Edwards and way ahead of Richardson (n=430, 12-4-07). This is the first poll I've seen that puts Biden in double digits; you can't tell me that's not momentum.
Iowa: Biden continues to rise in Iowa polls. Edwards' internal poll (n=502) has him at 7%, and he passed Richardson in yet another poll, from Strategic Vision. Yes, you're right, the Newsweek poll did show him at 2%, but I'm not too worried about that - this is the same poll that has Huckabee 10 points ahead of any other survey. We're talking major sample error - as Jerome pointed out, Newsweek weighted the sample to reflect the Iowa census, even though the Iowa caucus doesn't reflect the Iowa census. The last piece of good Iowa Biden news I want to share is the rollout of 50 new local endorsements. You can read the list here; it includes union presidents, party county chairs, elected county officials, and more.
The Washington Times (I know, I know) sums it up well:
An increasing number of Iowa Democrats are saying that Mr. Biden's strategy -- spending more time in the state than his competitors and securing 14 endorsements from state lawmakers who tout his decades of experience -- might just yield him a third-place or better finish on Jan. 3.
Such a surprise showing would earn the senator invaluable free press coverage, a fundraising boost and the potential to translate an Iowa blessing into the presidential nomination.
After highlighting the Times article, the Politico's Mike Allen said this:
The majors will have a wave of Biden second looks in coming days. He always does well in debates, his stature has been bizarrely overlooked to dates, and reporters like him as a person.
So trust me. Not only does this guy deserve to win, and only do we deserve to have him, he definitely still has a shot. I leave you with more Iran:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQqglI4RdKw&eurl=http://mydd.com/
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
