Is Clinton using Michigan and Florida as a safety net?

[tired_old_fireman]

I just read in an article discussing the possibility of Clinton placing third in Iowa and not winning in New Hampshire. The article is here:
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=257746

This part of the article stood out.

"her aides quietly remind reporters that the senator is likely to win easily in the neutered January 15 and January 29 primaries in Michigan and Florida, the two biggest states expected to vote before February 5's multi-state primary and caucus "super-duper Tuesday."

Here's the thing. If Clinton loses Iowa and New Hampshire, it seriously damages the aura of inevitability that surrounds her campaign. But, she will win the next contest in Michigan where Obama and Edwards aren't on the ballot. Despite the fact that Michigan won't have delegates, will she use that win to claim she made a comeback? There is a reason why she left herself on the ballot in Michigan. There is a reason why her aides are mentioning the importance of the state.

Edwards and Obama will be relying on the media to explain that the Michigan primary doesn't count. Will they do that? Relying on the media is never good. I worry that taking themselves off the ballot in Michigan will be the biggest mistake that Obama and Edwards have made. I can accept if Clinton is at the top of the ticket next November. It will be a bitter pill to swallow if it is because of the strange circumstances surrounding Michigan and Florida.

[itsrobert]

1. Her handlers are extremely sneaky

They don't call Penn and Carville the "fixers" for nothing.

[madfloridian]

2. The leaders in both states who pushed for early primaries....

are her supporters and leaders of her campaign. I don't know the answer though to your question.

I think she will win Florida for sure.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. My Two Cents

Given Florida's historical significance in the election of a president there will be heightened interest in the primary , precisely, because the votes of Florida's Democrats won't count again...
I suspect there will be hordes of press members asking Florida Democratic voters, exiting the polling sites on January 29th if they know their votes don't count...

I am not assigning blame... Everybody involved in this fiasco has egg on their face but once again the votes of Democratic voters won't count in the election of a president...


Sad...

[Debi]

7. Why?

delegates to the national convention have nothing to do with the general election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Before One Becomes President They Must First Secure The Nomination Of Their Party

Florida Democratic voters are voting for someone who they believe will represent their party in the general election yet their votes won't count...

[Debi]

15. Wait until August to determine if the votes won't count

The nominee will have the authority to seat delegates (the nominee - not the DNC)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Understand That

It's all "politics" in the worst sense of the word...

I blame everybody involved in that fiasco...

What was the big difference between 1/29 and 2/5?


I guess Floridians would argue that 1988 was the last time Florida Democrats had a say in the nominating process, i.e, the primary winner was already decided by the time of the Florida primary...

[hedgehog]

43. What's the point off seating delagates after the nominee is selected?

It makes for a pretty group shot but wouldn't change the results any.

[Debi]

45. It's a gathering of the party faithful, a time to unify and bring the party together

:shrug:

When was the last convention held that the nominee hadn't already been determined? 1968?

[Debi]

4. Unless someone else has a strong hold on California and New York

Clinton will be unstoppable on Feb. 5th.

I don't care who wins IA/NH/NV/SC - Clinton will have a strong showing on Super-Duper Tuesday and in all probability the nomination.

[wyldwolf]

11. it does appear a couple of candidates and their supporters are betting it all on Iowa and NH

... I believe there should be some acknowledgment here that Iowa and NH will not have near the influence in the rest of the primaries that they've had in the past.

[Debi]

13. Some have no choice b/c of financial constraints

and they will see some good press and $$ come if they do well in the early states. (and I agree about the influence early states have will not be as significant b/c of 24/7 news and the internet).

Unless a campaign had a national plan from day one I don't see how they beat Clinton.

[BeyondGeography]

17. "Unstoppable"...that almost sounds like "inevitable"

Can't speak for California, but she does have some formidable advantages in New York. Then again, the black vote might well not be one of them by Feb. 5, particularly with the big swing we're seeing down in SC (51-27 for Obama now). A month of losses leading up to Feb. 5 will make the current data look meaningless.

[Debi]

18. Financially (and with Illinois in the mix) I think Obama is her only competition

after SC. I'm pretty sure he has very active organizations in the other early states. Edwards may have contacts and organization left from 2004, but I don't think he can afford to get on the air in all those states. So he'll only be competitive if he wins some of the first few contests.

Otherwise I see the race pretty close to decided come Feb. 6th

[BeyondGeography]

22. Obama has as much money as Clinton for the primaries

no advantage there. Clinton can not lose in IA, NH and SC and expect anything to be resolved in her favor on Feb. 5.

[Debi]

25. Absentee ballots?

cast in several primary states prior to IA or NH. Those cannot be withdrawn.

[AX10]

55. True.

But I believe she will win in NH and NV. SC should still be hers. At this rate she will finish narrowly behind Obama in Iowa.

[wyldwolf]

5. what one in this thread calls "sneaky" most call politically smart. The campaign isn't just Iowa ..

... and NH.

Plus, as detailed in another thread, we may know early results from Nevada, CA, and Florida BEFORE NH.

[Debi]

10. Clinton had a national strategy from the get-go

I don't ever think she 'needed' IA or NH. I think they were always considered 'nice but not necessary' to the nomination.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. That's One Narrative

The other narrative is she loses IA and NH and Democrats elsewhere abandon her in droves...IMHO, the fly in that ointment is she is struggling in those states precisely because the demographic composition of those states are so different from the rest of the nation... Hillary's strength comes from down scale voters, African American voters and Hispanic voters, groups that are underrepresented in homogeneous Iowa and New Hampshire... I have seen the argument that those groups will abandon her too...Color me skeptical until I see real evidence of that happening...

I was not insulting the good folks of New Hampshire or Iowa ... I was just making an empirical observation....

[Debi]

23. Except that those states delegates don't equal NY and CA's delegates

and CA and NY have abesntee ballots being cast prior to IA and NH. Clinton could conceivable have the two largest delegate states locked up before the caucuses even occur. (okay, out on a limb here but you see what I'm saying).

[Uncle Joe]

30. I agree, her national strategy began against Al Gore no later than 2000.

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/11/clinton200711

<snip>

"Before Hillary officially established her exploratory committee, she began directly competing with the vice president for money, sometimes even at his own fund-raising events. When Tipper's friend Melinda Blinken and a group of women planned a Gore fund-raiser in Los Angeles, Hillary insisted on being invited—over the objections of the event's organizers. Hillary then shocked the vice president's supporters by soliciting donations for herself in front of Tipper."

<snip>


Why would Hillary Clinton do this to the Gores in California, when she was only running in New York and Al Gore was running a national campaign? I believe it's because this was a set up from the beginning and if there was a "vast right wing conspiracy" as Hillary Clinton stated, it was actually aimed at Al Gore as a back door strategy to keep him from coming to power. The only question I have is when did the Clintons join the conspiracy, was it after Dick Cheney announced he wouldn't run for President after he chose him self as Bush's Vice-Presidential running mate or before?

[Debi]

39. That whole article made me sick n/t

[AX10]

56. Clinton's national strategy is what will win her the nod in the end.

Obama is an upstart campaign, well intentioned but not mature enough to deal with the tough blows of a national campaign.

[Zueda]

6. Claiming "Come back kid" status..

where the other candidates were not on the ballot would make her a laughing stock.

[tired_old_fireman]

9. That's a good point.

[Andy823]

28. I agree

It think is't kind of sad that the "Hillary" crew has to "brag" about her big win in two states that won't even count, and like you said, where the other candidates are not even on the ballot! The Clinton camp has to be really spinning to use this kind of tactic, putting down Iowa and NH, and building up Florida and Michigan! But I guess when the chips are down, or should I say polls, anything is better than facing the facts! :nopity:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. I Don't Want To Knock Iowa And New Hampsire

But there are more people in the Miami-Ft Lauderdale area than there are in Iowa and New Hampshire combined and it is infinitely more racially and ethnically diverse than those two states... It looks like America...

[AX10]

54. True!

[jaysunb]

8. Why do you think Nelson & the DLCer's pulled this stunt

in the first place ?

:evilfrown:

[1corona4u]

26. Florida Dem's didn't pull any stunts...

They were out gunned by the Florida republicans. Simple as that. I can get the info for you, if you like...

[Debi]

29. FL Dems joined in willingly - just like MI's Dems did

don't believe they were victims for even a moment.

[1corona4u]

32. Well, I'm going by what the Florida website says, are you saying they lied?

Why didn’t the Florida Democratic Party follow the Rules?
Florida’s Primary date, as determined by state law, violates one part of the Rules because it comes before February 5, 2008. The DNC only allows Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina to go before February 5, but Florida law set ours for January 29. The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) is the only body that can grant final approval of the Delegate Selection Plan, but the Credentials Committee of the Democratic National Convention, which will be formed next year, decides who actually attends the Convention.

The DNC says that Florida could have applied to hold an early primary when it was developing the calendar, but didn’t. Why not?
In Florida, the Legislature is controlled by Republicans. Democrats must prioritize what they work on to achieve the best they can for Floridians. An early primary was never a priority for Democrats, who remain far more concerned with issues such as insurance reform, increased healthcare for children, and improving our schools.

The Rules say you had to try to stop the primary move, but Democrats voted for the law. What gives?
Initially, before a specific date had been decided upon by the Republicans, some Democrats did actively support the idea of moving earlier in the calendar year. That changed when Speaker Rubio announced he wanted to break the Rules of the Democratic and Republican National Committees. Following this announcement, DNC and Florida Democratic Party staff talked about the possibility that our primary date would move up in violation of Rule 11.A.

Party leaders, Chairwoman Thurman and members of Congress then lobbied Democratic members of the Legislature through a variety of means to prevent the primary from moving earlier than February 5th. Party leadership and staff spent countless hours discussing our opposition to and the ramifications of a pre-February 5th primary with legislators, former and current Congressional members, DNC members, DNC staff, donors, activists, county leaders, media, legislative staff, Congressional staff, municipal elected officials, constituency leaders, labor leaders and counterparts in other state parties. In response to the Party’s efforts, Senate Democratic Leaders Geller and Wilson and House Democratic Leaders Gelber and Cusack introduced amendments to CS/HB 537 to hold the Presidential Preference Primary on the first Tuesday in February, instead of January 29th. These were both defeated by the overwhelming Republican majority in each house.

The primary bill, which at this point had been rolled into a larger legislation train, went to a vote in both houses. It passed almost unanimously. The final bill contained a whole host of elections legislation, much of which Democrats did not support. However, in legislative bodies, the majority party can shove bad omnibus legislation down the minority’s throats by attaching a couple of things that made the whole bill very difficult, if not impossible, to vote against. This is what the Republicans did in Florida, including a vital provision to require a paper trail for Florida elections. There was no way that any Florida Democratic Party official or Democratic legislative leader could ask our Democratic members, especially those in the Florida Legislative Black Caucus, to vote against a paper trail for our elections. It would have been embarrassing, futile, and, moreover, against Democratic principles.

http://www.fladems.com/page/content/makeitcount-faqs/#q4


So is this accurate? Either way, I'm not happy about my vote for Joe Biden not counting. It's the lower tier candidates that will suffer the most in both states. BUT, I have felt for a long time, that Hillary has been assured the nomination....just a gut feeling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. As A Floridian It Pisses Me Off

I don't care who is to blame...

What did rank and file Democrats do to deserve to be disenfranchised?



It reminds me of the stupid argument put forward by Republicans in 00 that the Dems deserved to lose the White House in 00 because it was a Democratic Supervisor Of Elections who approved the infamous butterfly ballot in Palm Beach County...

[1corona4u]

34. Which is the county I live in...

what a disaster that was...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. I Love Palm Beach County Especially Palm Beach Gardens

DSB

[madfloridian]

37. They did it to themselves. It was a power play.

And they lost.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1678

[Debi]

38. Thank goodness

You are so much more well versed on this than I am. :hi:

[Uncle Joe]

40. Should it be taken to the Supreme Court, how do you believe they will rule?

I see this as just an extension of the coup of 2000 and I believe that's why Hillary Clinton is running in these states while the majority of other candidates aren't.

[madfloridian]

41. There is already a precedent from 1981 in the SC

a ruling for the DNC. With this court, I have no idea. But Nelson says he is not appealing.

[Debi]

42. I missed that, thanks mad n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. They Are All On The Ballot In Florida To The Best Of My Knowledge

DSB

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. The People Of Florida Lost Unless You Can Explain What Rank And File Democrats Did To Disenfranchise

Themselves...

[madfloridian]

57. They elected the legislators, they elected Nelson, they did not speak out.

In case you missed it:

Summary of my posts about the primary fiasco

Plus several more added later.

Details on how Florida worked with the GOP to set the early primary date.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1617

Nobody sued Terry McAuliffe when he said Michigan's delegates would not get near Boston.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1672

And a bit of saddish irony...
VPR: "Dean supports rotating regional presidential primaries"
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1623

You know what? Sometimes people can get informed on their own, stand up for what is honest. In this case too many did not bother. They just went along with it.

[Debi]

36. Yes, I am

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1617

madfloridian did a very good job of detailing what the Florida Democratic Party officials did throughout this process. Just go back through the journal archives.

Claiming to be victims while aiding the GOP in re-setting the primary is BS.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. You're In California

Whatever Bill Nelson's flaws he beat the two of biggest Rethuglican jackasses to ever come down the pike in 00 ( Bill McCollum) and 06 (Cruella Harris)...As a near lifelong Floridian I can tell you that beating Bill McCollum was no small or easy feat and there's no guarantee McCollum wouldn't have whipped another Democrat... Nelson is the only kind of Democrat that can win a statwide race in Florida... That why all the Democrats from Rubin Askew to Lawton Chiles to Bob Graham who have been elected statewide in the past thirty years are in that mold... And Askew and Chiles weren't even pro-choice...

[jaysunb]

48. I have no quarrel w/ Sen Nelson

or what he has done as a Florida Senator, or who he supports for President. I'm just stating the facts as far as I can tell.

And BTW, being in California only delays information by three hours....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. But I Think A Resident Has A Better Feel For His State's Politics Than A Non-Resident

That's all...

[madfloridian]

49. That is why Florida is so Republican...even the Democrats are.

People here have given in and voted for people who switch parties whenever they feel like it.

[wyldwolf]

14. there seems to be an undercurrent running in some corners of the left...

...that if Hillary loses Iowa and NH but wins the nomination, something underhanded will have gone on. If a candidate didn't have a national strategy from the start, it's his fault.

[Debi]

16. Hey....do I hear an echo in here?

:P

[wyldwolf]

20. you planted it in my mind subliminally

[Debi]

24. Damn, I'm good. n/t

[calteacherguy]

44. It will be all over the headlines that there is only one candidate on the ballot.

If anything, it will turn more voters off to the Clinton campaign because it smells of dirty tricks.

[Debi]

46. Three - Dodd and Kucinich as well n/t

[Clintonista2]

47. Hey hey hey! Stop confronting Calguy with facts!

He IS a teacher, you know :rofl::rofl::rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. In Florida They Are All On The Ballot I Believe

DSB