The two "new" IA polls showing Hillary ahead are older than the new Des Moines Register poll.

[jenmito]

No link to the two "newly released" polls, and the people who started threads about them don't have dates, either, but Chuck Todd just now said, on MSNBC, that the two polls "just out" showing Hillary ahead were taken BEFORE the DMR poll. So don't believe the hype.

[RDANGELO]

1. I'm glad someone is bringing this up.

The media is just reporting them as they come out and not paying any attention to the dates.

[jenmito]

4. I saw a couple threads saying Obama's falling in "newest" polls...

and that's just not the case. I'm glad Chuck Todd set the record straight.

[drbob99]

20. The media is in HRC's pocket.

However, they may turn on her once it becomes clear she is dead duck.

[maddezmom]

2. here are some dates, but still can't find info to the most recent polls

The poll shows what has continued to be a wide gap between the top three candidates and the remainder of the field. The telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Nov. 25 to 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

The survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, in collaboration with the Associated Press, was conducted Nov. 7-25 among 460 voters likely to vote in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses; 594 likely voters in New Hampshire's Jan. 8 Democratic primary; and 373 likely voters in South Carolina's Jan. 26 Democratic primary. In addition, a separate national survey was conducted among 467 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who say they are likely to vote in a primary or caucus in their state.
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=374

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Iowa State poll samples taken Nov. 6-18

[jenmito]

5. Thanks. And the DMR samples taken from Nov. 25th-28th. n/t

[maddezmom]

7. and AP/Pew Nov 7-25

[jenmito]

12. Which is older than the DMR poll from Nov. 25th-28th. n/t

[maddezmom]

15. yes it is

Just getting all the dates out there :hi:

[jenmito]

18. OK. Thanks.

:hi:

[suston96]

6. Gee whiz...

Can you imagine the media doing that? Reporting something as just released when it was released days, weeks ago?

Of course the media never does that when announcing Obam or someone else is ahead in a "just released poll"?

[EV_Ares]

8. It was all over MSNBC and CNN this morning about Obama being

in the lead.

Here is the latest Iowa poll and it shows him ahead as well.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/iowa.html

[jenmito]

11. Yup. And even though Chuck Todd explained this, the woman just brought it up AGAIN

and the DMR spokeswoman pointed out the same thing-that the "newest" poll from Iowa State is old.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

28. It was released this morning. The media cannot report things before they happen.

[jenmito]

33. They should report the dates the polls were taken. They didn't.

That's why people mistakenly believe Obama's falling.

[PresidentObama]

9. Shhhh, the Hillary supporters need something besides the national polls to gloat about

[jenmito]

14. I know. But it's false information to say Obama's falling in "newest" polls. n/t

[PresidentObama]

19. The truth has NEVER mattered to some on DU.

[jenmito]

24. I see that. They're STILL claiming Hillary's "back." Yeah-back to the past.

They just can't seem to deal with failure very well.

[PresidentObama]

34. Hillary's been so inevitable for so long, it's probably hard the race is finally anyones ballgame.

Personally, I'm glad it's so close in Iowa.

Makes things more interesting.

[jenmito]

36. I think you're right...

as is evidenced by at least one poster on this thread.

[Captain Hilts]

10. And they all don't mean much. nt

[William769]

13. I know this is giving you a coronary

And the new AP pew poll should. :rofl:

Now lets see polls are to be believed now because Hillary was not in first place, now that Hillary is back in first place, I guess the polls become meaningless again. Some of you really crack me up! :rofl:

[jenmito]

17. Nope. It's giving you false hope because it's OLD compared to the DMR poll

which shows Obama leading. But keep hope alive! :rofl:

[William769]

23. And what do you consider old?

Just after thanksgiving. :rofl:

[jenmito]

27. Nov. 6-18th is old...

as is the Nov. 7-25th. BOTH older than the ones showing Obama leading. But you can whistle past the graveyard all you want. :rofl:

[William769]

30. I am whistling and that what got your panties all in a bunch!

:rofl:

[jenmito]

32. I'm just putting out the FACTS while you prefer to live in the past.

Good luck with that! :rofl:

[JackORoses]

46. Hillary is not back in first. She was in first, now she isn't.

Releasing outdated polls doesn't change that, pal.

[BootinUp]

16. Yeah, but Rasmussen had Clinton up by 2 over the same period.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

[jenmito]

21. And the later ARG poll had OBAMA up by 2.

[drbob99]

22. DMR poll is generally accepted as the best and most accuate poll in IA, plus it is the most recent.

[jenmito]

29. Exactly. And welcome to the DU!

:hi:

[drbob99]

40. Thanks! Good board.

[sundancekid]

25. YOU ARE SO RIGHT! it was released 12/3 for 11/7-25 time frame interviews

from tpm
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2007/12/appew_poll_clinton_strong_on_k.php

~snip
The telephone survey involved interviews conducted from Nov. 7-25 with 460 likely Democratic voters in Iowa, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.5 points. Also interviewed were 594 likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 points, and 373 likely Democratic voters in South Carolina, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 6 points.
~snip

OTOH

the Des Moines Register where Obama leads was done over 11/25-11/28 or indeed AFTER the Pew Poll ...
here is the link to the DMR article, and when you click on the link "source" lower right corner of the table of results, you will be able to see the dates of the interviews - the latest one, plus the one in october to which comparisons are made ...

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071201/NEWS09/71130037/-1/caucus

on edit: to add the dsm link I had forgotten in the first posting

[jenmito]

31. Thanks for the links!

It seems like even those who keep reporting the old polls as "new" have to keep being told they're old. It was Tameryn Hall who kept reporting it.

[dmallind]

26. Maybe pictures would help

This applies to all the polls. You will find the "anybody's guess" area is almost always bigger than the " X wins for sure" area in any even vaguely recent IA poll.

Again - there is no trend and no clear advantage.

This of course assumes we have a perfectly constructed poll, a perfectly valid sample, and that there was no problem in exceution. It also only demonstrates what is true now with a 95% confidence level - there's a 1 in 20 shot it could be way off, and is not predictive.

Again, same with polls showing HRC in the lead. There is no valid reason to think anyone specific is leading Iowa now, and has not been for a long time.


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[jenmito]

35. Thanks for that...

I like it. "Obama wins for sure" has a lot goin' on. :D

[dmallind]

37. Well a BIT yes

and trust me would not irk me in the slightest. It has however a lot less going on than variations on "anybody's guess" which is the real situation in IA.

[jenmito]

38. I understand that...

but I still like it. :D

[flpoljunkie]

39. Heard it, too. Thanks for posting, jenmito!

Todd also said the Des Moines Register poll is considered to be the most reliable poll of potential caucus goers.

[jenmito]

43. Glad to do it!

Yup, he said that, too. :hi:

[jenmito]

41. Chris Jansing is talking to the chairman of Iowa State Poly Sci. dept asking about his "newest" poll

and she first asked why he thinks this poll shows such a "different picture" and he gave some reasons like MoE, and "when the polls were taken" but didn't say WHEN this poll was taken. But then Jansing pointed out that his poll was taken "about 8 days before the DMR poll" (even though it was taken Nov. 6th-18th) and he said that COULD be "part of it." When first asked what the poll shows he said it shows Hillary's doing better than what the other poll suggests. :eyes:

[suston96]

42. Maybe this.....?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22067963

"Most Democratic ‘superdelegates’ uncommitted
Clinton leads Obama in officials who aren't bound by primary results


WASHINGTON - New Hampshire and Iowa will have to wait.

The nation’s first presidential primary, for Democrats anyway, is being waged among hundreds of party insiders — superdelegates who could play a big part in selecting the nominee at next summer’s national convention.

So far, most of them still haven’t been sold on any of the candidates.
Story continues below ↓advertisement

The Associated Press contacted 90 percent of the 765 superdelegates, mostly elected officials and other party officers, who are free to support anyone they choose at the convention, regardless of what happens in the primaries.

Hillary Rodham Clinton leads Barack Obama by more than a 2-1 margin among those who have endorsed a candidate. But a little more than half of those contacted — 365 — said they haven’t settled on a Democratic standard bearer.

“The fact that under half have publicly committed shows me how open the Democratic race still is,” said Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any campaign. “It’s a sign that the race isn’t totally done in many people’s minds.”

[TwilightZone]

44. Both sides can cherry-pick and find pretty much whatever they want.

Obama is up in some polls. He's down in others. He dropped three points in the 12/2/07 Rasmussen poll and stayed at that level on 12/3/07.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

His went up in the latest ARG poll.

So, pick whatever fits your agenda.

[jenmito]

47. But it's false to call "newly released" polls which are OLD, "the newest poll" n/t

[Quixote1818]

45. Either way, Obama and Edwards clearly have momentum.

Momentum is all that matters at this point.

[jenmito]

48. And Hillary's going negative...

I know why-she can't afford to stay "above the fray" anymore.

[Hippo_Tron]

49. True, but the 12/3 poll wasn't taken after Obama's kindergarten essay was exposed

I expect that will cause a massive slump for Obama once voters realize that he has been plotting world domination since age five.

:rofl: