Clinton leads Obama, Edwards in NH

[ccpup]

Poll: Clinton Leads Obama, Edwards in New Hampshire Presidential Primary

The Associated Press
AP News

Dec 03, 2007 10:04 EST

THE RACE: The presidential race for Democrats in New Hampshire

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THE NUMBERS

Hillary Rodham Clinton, 38 percent

Barack Obama, 19 percent

John Edwards, 15 percent

Bill Richardson, 10 percent

___

OF INTEREST:

Clinton's two-to-one edge over Obama in the state is buttressed by huge leads among women, older, mid- and lower-income and less educated voters — mirroring many of her national strengths. Obama is competitive but still trails among men, the college educated and upper-income people. Just over half of Clinton's, Obama's and Edwards' supporters say their backing is strong — meaning significant late shifts are possible.

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The telephone poll, done by The Associated Press and the Pew Research Center, was conducted Nov. 7-25 and involved interviews with 594 likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

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COMPLETE RESULTS: http://people-press.org

Source: AP News

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/mochila.php?articleId=10815025&channelId=76&buyerId=talkingpointsmemo_com400732&buid=866

[Deep13]

1. Of course she does. Her people can campaign all day and still sleep at home.

Everyone else has to rent motel space and rely on volunteers who have time to stay there for a few weeks.

[Alamom]

5. self-delete - meant for OP

[bunnies]

2. Meanwhile the Fox poll shows her with a 7 pt lead in NH.

And this one shows nearly 20?

Thats it... I officially dont believe ANY of these polls... no matter what they say.

[dmallind]

4. Why? not much outside MOE even on this one let alone both combined

If that 5% error is in favor of HRC and against BO you'd only have a 9% gap in THIS poll. If it was reveresed in the Faux poll the gap could certainly be far bigger than 9%. There is considerable overlap between the two.

Now that's assuming both polls had valid random probability samples, and were executed fairly.

And even without that, the whole idea of a poll like this is that 95% of the time a random sample of the same population would be within 5% either way. Obviously if you roll a metaphorical 20 sided die, 20 comes up every now and again, so even if there were NO overlap, these results would still not, even inductively, invalidate polling.

Now if you get 20 from Fox and 20 of these and they ALL disagree by more than a 10pt spread now we've got some suspicions that there is at least one of them with bad methodology. And yet even then, it would say only that - not that all polls are non-credible.

[SaveElmer]

3. Very nice...!

Thanks for posting!!!

[Alamom]

6. k&r

[drbob99]

7. Stale data. More recent Rasmussen poll shows single digit lead.

New Hampshire Dem Primary
========================
Hillary Clinton 33%
Barack Obama 26%
John Edwards 15%
Bill Richardson 9%