Pretty good analysis of Iowa poll from David Yepsen...

[SaveElmer]

Obama's gained 6 points in the last month and has opened up a statistically insignificant lead over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. That lead looks even weaker when you consider a chunk of Obama's support comes from younger adults, who are notoriously poor caucusgoers. (Only 5 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers are under 25. In 2004, only 17 percent were under 29.)

So he needs to light some fires under those voters. Last week, he tried to do that by unloading a 50,000-piece flier aimed at college students. The piece even urged those "not from Iowa" to register to vote and caucus in their campus communities.

Obama might also be expected to spend a little more time in rural Iowa. He runs weakest there, yet 47 percent of the likely caucusgoers say they're from rural areas or small towns.

Clinton's slipped in the last month and is losing support of women. Obama carries their votes 31 percent to 26 percent, and women form 59 percent of the likely caucus-going audience. Among women, 51 percent say they have very favorable feelings toward him.

She continues to be vexed by her relatively high negative ratings. Close to a third of Democratic activists view her negatively, and that may deny her a first-place finish on caucus night, despite her good organization. She's had some success improving her image by making lots of personal appearances in Iowa, so look for her to add campaign time in the state.

John Edwards is in third place at 23 percent. It'll be fatal for the guy who finished second in 2004 to finish in third place now. Yet his support is unchanged from October. While he's not improved in the last month, he hasn't slipped more, either.

This poll might be a sign that Edwards should go back to that softer style and more positive, moderate message that served him so well in 2004. His populist themes and indignant style smack of class warfare and haven't moved numbers in Iowa.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071201/OPINION01/71201010

[Cameron27]

1. What's her time on the ground there

compared to Obama and Edwards?

[SaveElmer]

4. Less...I don't know by how much though...nt

[jefferson_dem]

8. She's spent far less time there than Edwards and Obama...

Here's a pretty cool website that keeps track of such things -- http://www.iowapolitics.com/1009/caucus08.html

The thing is, I'm not sure how much higher her numbers can go...where the ceiling is. It's not like people don't "know" her yet.

[SaveElmer]

11. But as Yepsen notes...face time has benefited her...and over half say ...

They may yet change their mind...as long as they don't changeg it to Edwards hopefully...

[Colobo]

2. Obama's ahead. That's what matters.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Obama winning women - - 31 versus 26 for Hillary.

That's surprising.

[Cameron27]

5. Yes that is surprising.

[Colobo]

10. And very positive.

[Zueda]

12. Now what news happened over the last week...

that could of helped him there????

Hmmmm.

[SaveElmer]

6. It is...though within MoE...but on the other hand...

SHe is well in front with older voters who make up about 60% of caucus goers...

[bigdarryl]

7. this article is misleading a week ago they said Clinton was ahead of Obama with the younger voters

so I don't think this guy knows what he is talking about.If she is ahead now on getting the youth vote then with the race still a toss up that means he's starting to get support some place else Get over it Hillary ain't winning Iowa its either going to Edwards or Obama

[SaveElmer]

9. See he is reacting to a poll released tonight...

Superseding his analysis of last week...unless you figure he owns a crystal ball?

[zulchzulu]

13. I've seen plenty of Obama supporters in Iowa who are not students

I've been there...and it is impressive.