Biden says he must finish in top three in Iowa to continue candidacy

[oberliner]

Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden is predicting an Iowa Caucus Night surprise. Most polls show Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards to be in a tight race at the head of the pack, but Biden says a lesser-known candidate will push ahead of one of them. "I think one of us is going to end up supplanting one of the so-called top tier candidates," Biden says.

During a Wednesday afternoon taping of an Iowa Public Television program, Biden made the case for why he'll be the one to break out of the back pack of candidates. "I haven't gone on television yet. I'm going to be doing that. I haven't done any paid media," Biden said. "But what's happened is the top tier is frozen. Nothing's moving. They've spent millions of dollars and nothing's moving."

According to Biden, anything less than a first, second or third place showing for him on Caucus Night will spell the end of his presidential campaign.

http://www.radioiowa.com/gestalt/go.cfm?objectid=88BBCB79-CA33-C7EE-220B0EE9DB02C19F

Anyone think this will happen?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. 20% chance

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

19. Raising my 20% guess yesterday to 33%, in light of this poll:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3774490

Biden needs 1) for people to give up on Richardson in Iowa, and 2) to reach double digits in Iowa, guaranteeing more TV.

In the new ARG poll Biden jumps to 8% and Richardson craters... so a Biden surprise may actually be bubbling under the surface.

[skipos]

2. It wouldn't blow my mind if Biden did it. Edwards and Kerry had single digit polls

close to Iowa.

[oberliner]

5. Kerry started to make his move in early December

Dec 8th Pew Poll had him a close third with 18 percent.

Edwards, on the other hand, was still polling single digits at that time.

[K Gardner]

27. Latest "poll" shows him moving ahead a few points.. email below:

Received from joebiden.com

Breaking news! A new ARG poll, released this morning, shows our campaign surging past Bill Richardson in Iowa and closing in on the front-runners (Biden 8% - Richardson 4%).

This confirms everything we hear when we talk to voters around the state: as the the other candidates bicker with each other, Iowans are turning to us because we're running a positive campaign focused on the issues that confront the nation.

[1corona4u]

3. I still say a VERY close 3rd. Like within a few hundred votes...

[oberliner]

6. Who doesn't make the top 3?

Edwards, Obama, or Hillary?

[1corona4u]

10. I think the 3 top stay there..just a shift...

but I think Biden is within a few hundred votes of 3rd, as in 4th. So close, that he has a dilema on whether or not to continue on. Hope that clears up what I meant by "close 3rd". BUT, if that were to happen, people might just be so shocked, they'll realize that he does indeed have support, since he has been under the radar for so long. It could make a huge difference before the other primaries.

[bigdarryl]

4. WELL you better drop out now he isn't going to finish in the top 3

[illinoisprogressive]

7. I am guessing it will be Obama, Edwards and Biden in iowa

[oberliner]

9. Why do you think Hillary drops out of the top 3? nt

[bigdarryl]

11. it's called peaking to soon and Iowa HATES the media telling them who to vote for

[TwilightGardener]

8. Obama, Biden, Edwards--that's fine with me. Make it happen, Iowa!

[Think82]

12. Nobody knows what the heck is going to happen, as always. It's wide open

[snowbear]

16. Yup...

If you read some of the articles from the '04 Iowa election, it's amazing how many people walked into the caucus still undecided!!

Anything can happen. ~~~

[youthere]

26. That isn't unusual..

a large amount of caucus goers might favor 2 or three candidates, but wait until the actual caucus to decide based on the arguments they hear there.

[Steely_Dan]

13. I think that the real question is...

when will Jonathan Alter finally lose all of his hair.

Biden will finish in second place.

-Paige

[1corona4u]

14. Well, I'm not religious, but....

[youthere]

15. From your lips to...

dogs ears.

[Czolgosz]

17. I bet Biden passes Richardson in Iowa, but if he doesn't rise higher, will he endorse (and who)?

[1corona4u]

18. Well, he had said Dodd...

but that might change, so who knows.

[Czolgosz]

20. Makes sense. Except on bankruptcy, where they are 180 degrees apart, and abortion, where they differ

Biden and Dodd have fairly similar records.

[1corona4u]

22. They are opposites on a lot of issues...

even Joe admits that...especially where foreign policy is concerned. Which, by the way, is the most important issue facing americans in this election.

[Czolgosz]

24. Other than bankruptcy and abortion, 2 issues where Dodd's left of Biden, how's their domestic agenda

different?

[1corona4u]

25. The topic of this thread is....

Biden says he must finish in top three in Iowa to continue candidacy

I'm quite sure you can find that information out for your self. Now, if you'd like to discuss the actual topic, I'll be happy to.

[Evergreen Emerald]

21. I hope he does.

The polls have him at the bottom. Less money for advertising.

[Apollo11]

23. I think Joe is just "Biden" his time ...

Biden is absolutely right to be talking up his chances of breaking into the "top tier".

If he doesn't believe he has any chance of moving up then he might as well quit now.

Joe Biden has been doing great in the debates and has an outside chance of breaking thru.

But he needs to make a splash in Iowa and get some delegates in his column.

[Stop Cornyn]

28. Gotta to give Biden credit for admitting the fundamental truth of the political situation here.

Is it official that he'll drop out if he comes in fourth?