Hillary is Still the Strong Favorite

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With roughly a month to go until the nominating process actually begins in Iowa, the contours of the 2008 presidential race are now clear. On the Democratic side, the nomination is still Hillary Clinton's to lose. And on the Republican side, which we'll review in depth next week, there are still, incredibly, five candidates with a legitimate chance to gain the GOP nod.

Because the mainstream press focuses on the day-to-day machinations of the campaign -- a process exacerbated by the rise of Internet coverage, which takes every minute-by-minute development and blows it up out of proportion -- it's often difficult to get a sense of the big picture.

But each race has now assumed a discernible story line. For any of the Democrats not named Clinton, the key is to beat her in Iowa, lest they see their chances for an upset slip away. Sure, the nomination likely won't be decided until February 5, when more than 20 states hold their contests. But if Clinton's challengers can't beat her in Iowa on January 3, they're unlikely to win in the other key Democratic tests before Super Tuesday -- namely New Hampshire on January 8 and South Carolina on January 26. The race, then, will be over almost before it started.

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Clinton currently holds about a 20-point lead in most national polls, which should give her some security. After all, one has to go back to 1972, when George McGovern bested early leader Edmund Muskie, to find a race in which a front-runner blew such a large lead going into the primaries. That doesn't mean it can't happen again. But it does mean, despite Clinton's well-publicized recent travails -- specifically her sub-par debate performance in late October and some narrowing opinion polls in Iowa and New Hampshire -- that it's unlikely.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/11/hillary_is_still_the_strong_fa.html

[Perky]

1. Yep...If she wins Iowa thenit might be over but guess what

She is not going to win Iowa.....

Her numbers are hovering consistentntly in the high 20s. ANd Obama is clearly a tight second with Edwards taking about 22%.. But here is the thing. The other 25% including the 10% that is still undecided will not break for her. she Might get 10% of those voters which would push her to around 30 but Obama is going to get about 1/2 of the loose 25% or 12% and Edward is going to get around 10%.

Late undecided and second tier candidate supporters break heavily for the non-insiturional/non-incumbent candidate. I am betting Obama Beats Hillary 35% to 30% with Edwards around 26%

[Skip Intro]

3. I think she'll pull it out, but a strong second would be ok too

I think Obama will have peaked before the actual caucus, and honestly, Hillary has been under big time attack for at least a month now, so that is having some effect, but is it sustainable? I don't think so. I think there might even be a backlash against her attackers before it's over with...

[Tejanocrat]

4. No she'll win! (SET EXPECTATIONS VERY HIGH! SET EXPECTATIONS VERY HIGH! SET EXPECTATIONS VERY HIGH!)

[Tejanocrat]

2. I agree (SET EXPECTATIONS VERY HIGH! SET EXPECTATIONS VERY HIGH! SET EXPECTATIONS VERY HIGH!)