In Iowa and N.H., 2008 election more volatile than most

[babylonsister]

In Iowa and N.H., 2008 election more volatile than most
By David Lightman | McClatchy Newspapers

* Posted on Sunday, November 25, 2007


MANCHESTER, N.H. — Despite what many political experts, campaign officials and media outlets keep insisting, there's no frontrunner in either the Democratic or Republican race for the White House.

Huge numbers of voters in the early primary and caucus states of Iowa and New Hampshire remain undecided and, in many cases, unimpressed by major candidates.

"There's a lot of confusion among people right now," said Pamela Choquette, a social worker from Pittsburg, N.H. "They're undecided."

Voters are saying that, as in past years, they won't make up their minds until they cast their votes at Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses or enter the voting booth five days later in New Hampshire.

Adding to the volatility are the rules in both states — New Hampshire lets independents vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary, and Iowa's Democratic caucus rules often prod participants to change to second or third choices.

As a result, Dennis Goldford, professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines, summed up the mood with four terse words: "The races are fluid."

Wayne F. Lesperance, associate professor of political science at New England College in Hennicker, N.H., finds a general consensus on what will make voters finally pick a candidate.

"At the end of the day," he said, "electability will make the difference."

The discomfort and unpredictability is evident in the numbers and in the chatter in the nation's early voting states.

more...

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/226/story/22057.html

[KoKo]

1. More from the article about polling and how voters are unhappy with

the Media Coverage.

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-- Voter education. People in the two states know they have the opportunity to meet the candidates, or at least question their supporters.

They want to know about issues, and so far see, and are unhappy with, a lot of coverage of the election as sport — full of up and down polls and who's got the best tactics.

A study last month by two journalism organizations found that in the early months of the campaign, sixty-three percent of campaign stories in major media outlets discussed political and tactical aspects of the campaign — and only 17 percent examined candidates' ideas or policy proposals.

One percent focused on candidates' records or past performance, according to the data compiled by the Project for Excellence in Journalism and the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy.

But a Pew Research Center survey found that 77 percent of those it surveyed in late September said they wanted more coverage of issues.

-- An unusual Republican race. Since 1964, Republicans have generally wound up anointing the logical candidate. This time, though, "there's no one next in line," said Goldford, since Bush can't run again and Vice President Dick Cheney is not running.

Add to that another wild card: Bush is highly unpopular, so it's not clear whether GOP candidates should actively criticize him, not mention him or try to at least woo the small band of Republicans who still like the president.

[bunnies]

2. Great article. Only 24% of NH's Dems are Decided.

This is exactly why polls showing who's ahead are completely meaningless. Im glad this is finally being pointed out. Thanks for the post!

[saltpoint]

3. The fewer there "frontrunners" and "second-tier" candidates, the less the media

can manipulate public opinion.

The cable news stations prefer a GUNSMOKE-like duel for political races.

I hope they don't get it.