Who will the Hillary supporters in Iowa pick when she is unviable?

[Broke Dad]

At the Iowa caucuses, a candidate needs to be at the threshold of 15% of the people in attendance to be viable.

One of the reason Gephardt dropped like a rock in 2004 is that he didn't get to 15% in the rural precincts. Then his people had to caucus for another campaign.

Hillary is not going to get 15% in every precinct in Iowa, especially in my rural part of the state.

So the question on the table becomes, who will the Hillary people in Iowa support when she is not viable in their caucus??????

[FreeState]

1. She is making one big mistake there

A lot of her staff there is young and from the east coast. The average age of a voter there is 53. Iowa voters do not like to be talked down to by younger east coast transplants that often give the impression to the voters that they are looked down on as midwesterners.

[MonkeyFunk]

2. I would imagine

most volunteers working for candidates are young.

Are Clinton's volunteers noticeably younger than Edwards' or Obama's?

[FreeState]

3. Well the problem is she is not drawing on locals

Last I heard there were over 600 Clinton staffers there and and outside source estimated the average age was 23 or 24. From what I understand most the other candidates have local staffers of all ages mixed with some implants. (I should note this is all drawn from conversations I have had with people that are very much into politics and Hillary supporters - I have no evidence one way or the other besides hearsay.)

[mruddy]

7. At the bigger Iowa events I attended, Harkin Steakfry & JJ dinner,

most Clinton & Obama supporters were under 30. Most Edwards supporters were older except for maybe 25-30 or so campaign field organizers. Alot of Clinton & Obama supporters were campaign staff & volunteers bused in from surrounding states.

Here's something everyone needs to be aware of: campaign field staff & volunteers can attend & participate in the Iowa caucus no matter what state they've been brought in from. All they need is a current Iowa address. A certain campaign has recently brought into Iowa an additional 1000 field workers. Strategically housed field staff & volunteers by this campaign "will influence the outcome of the Iowa caucus".

[FreeState]

8. Campaign staff/volunteers can attend/participate in the caucus no matter what state there from

I did not realize this. So if a very wealthily candidate wanted to they could pay staffers to live there long enough to vote there? No to sure I like that...

[WonderGrunion]

11. In all likelyhood

That's what Kerry's $2 Million mortgage before Iowa helped pay for to eliminate Dean's popularity.

[cali]

4. Is anybody going to get 15% in every precinct?

In any case, I imagine that the Clinton folks will throw their votes to Biden, Dodd or Richardson.

[Adelante]

5. Current polls show they are split

Half Edwards and half Obama in terms of second choices. How long this will be the case is anybody's guess. I suspect if what you are posing ever happened Biden could also have appeal.

[SaveElmer]

9. I am skeptical of that number...

Not that the poll is rigged...but apparently didn't include other candidates in that question...

I suspect Biden and Richardson are the second choices of a fair number...

[neutron]

6. Oh, John Edwards, of course

whose campaign has morphed into a stomach turning embarassment.

[SaveElmer]

10. Getting past the snarkiness of the question....

I believe Hillary will win in Iowa...albeit narrowly...which I have always believed would happen

Should her candidacy prove not viable however (a very, very, very large if)...I would support Joe Biden...

No other candidates excite me enough to actively support them...so will just wait and see who gets the nod...

[Perry Logan]

12. I think they'll use "anti-Hillarite tactics"--i.e., quit the party and let the Republicans win.