Strategically, Obama & Edwards Should "Get It": Only One of Them Will Be in the Top Two in Iowa

[David Zephyr]

I don't see how the obsession with Hillary by Obama and Edwards just weeks before Iowa is going to get either of them in to the top two when the Iowa Caucus results come in.

Hillary will be in the top two. That's just simple math at this point.

So the big question is: will Edwards or Obama be third? Third will not be a good place for either of them. They'd best start delineating their differences now because that is the contest. Who will be in the top two with Hillary? John or Barack. Coming in third will be a disaster for either Obama or Edwards.

Whichever one falls there, will fall further in New Hampshire.

I do think that Joe Biden will continue to grow in popularity with voters, but time is not on his side.

In any event, I don't understand why the staffs of Obama and Edwards are still focusing on Hillary. She's going to place first or second in Iowa regardless of what one's hopes and prayers may be.

So who will be in the top two with Hillary? Obama or Edwards.

That's the big question.

[Genevieve]

1. it will be Obama nt

[Bluebear]

4. Based on? Your gut? The debate? Issues?

[Genevieve]

6. it's just based on my gut feeling

I prefer Edwards, but I'm not feeling it.

[MethuenProgressive]

31. Clinton and Biden: one & two in Iowa

I think Iowana are getting tired of Obawards.

[calteacherguy]

2. Because if they fight among themselves, Hillary will have more to gain.

Political campaigning 101

Oh, and it will be Obama. Edwards had blown it in his method of attack. It's over for him.

Obama stands to gain nothing by attacking the sinking ship that is John Edwards. He will continue to draw contrasts between himself and Clinton, giving voters a clear choice.

[David Zephyr]

5. She's going to either win Iowa or place second. That's reality.

These two camps will wake up to that math sooner or later. The one that does first will have the advantage of being the anti-Hillary candidate.

Mark my words.

Hillary will be in the top two. And that leaves only Barack or Edwards to be there with her.

[calteacherguy]

8. Yes, and Obama is clearly defining himself now.

I'm confident he will win Iowa.

[David Zephyr]

10. Obama has the popularity in Iowa, but Edwards has a better organization there.

It's going to be very touch and go, and I couldn't tell you which of the two men will be in the top two with her, and that's why I think they'd both better get down to business. Iowa will make or break one of the two of them.

[babylonsister]

3. Posted this evening prior to the debate:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=132&topic_id=3724648&mesg_id=3724648

Poll: Iowa up for grabs

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/11/15/poll-io... /

Poll: Iowa up for grabs

A new poll shows a close race in Iowa.

WASHINGTON (CNN) — With less than two months to go until Iowans cast the first votes of 2008, a new KCCI-TV poll released Thursday shows that the Democratic race is up for grabs in the Hawkeye State.

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, holds a statistically insignificant 2 percentage-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois (27 percent to 25 percent.) Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards falls just behind the frontrunners with 21 percent. But 11 percent of Iowa voters said they are still undecided, which makes the outcome unpredictable on Election Day.

A CBS/New York Times poll released Wednesday also showed Clinton, Obama and Edwards closely vying for the top spot in Iowa. That poll put Edwards in second place behind Clinton and Obama in third.

On the Republican side, the KCCI-TV poll showed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee gaining ground in Iowa. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was comfortably in the lead with 27 percent, but Huckabee had 18 percent and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani got 16 percent. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson got 10 percent, but 15 percent of GOP voters said they were undecided. The CBS/New York Times poll had similar results.

The KCCI poll surveyed 600 likely Iowa voters from November 12-14. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[dkf]

7. Edwards has no $.

[babylonsister]

9. He has enough to be in contention apparently. Why don't you provide

us a link to let us know why he even bothered to show up at the debate tonight?

[David Zephyr]

12. Edwards has more than enough money for Iowa and New Hampshire.

And he has a great organziation in Iowa, but Obama is showing better in the polls.

That's the contest now: which will be in the top two. I think it is a toss up tonight,.

[babylonsister]

14. Thanks, and I agree. I wish DK was involved somehow, because he is

the man with the message I'd prefer to hear.

[David Zephyr]

15. Dennis made a tactical mistake by skipping over Iowa. I think he would have done well there.

I like all our candidates.

[babylonsister]

16. I think it might have been one he couldn't avoid because he had to

spread the limited money the best way he could. I love his message, but our candidates are great compared to the competition.

[dkf]

19. He is trying...frankly I think he wants Obama to win if he can't.

His whole change the system vibe is genuinely felt and he knows Hillary won't do a thing about it.

[Stop Cornyn]

21. I also get that same impression.

[Stop Cornyn]

13. Edwards has more cash on hand than Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel combined

[dkf]

18. But not enough to beat Hillary

That is all that matters.

[Stop Cornyn]

20. If the race can be bought, there is no doubt she can buy it. Only Edwards and Obama can stop her.

Between the two, I like them both but I think Edwards has a better chance in Iowa and he who stops Hillary from winning Iowa will most likely emerge as her main challenger. I'd be thrilled with either an Obama win or an Edwards win; just so long as we don't nominate a corporate lap dog.

[JDPriestly]

22. Edwards' strength is his message. It is just what most Americans

want to hear. Americans are hurting. Jobs are disappearing. Prices are rising. Gas is 3.39 at my local station. That hurts. Gas prices have yet to trickle down and cause the rise of all the other prices. People will really feel the squeeze this Christmas. Edwards' message is becoming more and more relevant.

[Stop Cornyn]

11. I think the order of finish in Iowa will be Edwards Hillary Obama Biden Richardson Kucinich Dodd

On the Repub side: Romney Huckabee Giuliani Paul McCain Thompson

[surfermaw]

34. Edwards will finish first, and Hillary second..

[Phunktified]

17. They have plenty of time

For whatever their failings, the Edwards and Obama camps, and the mainstream media this last week laid the foundation of what will be essentially the Hillary attack these next few weeks. But she went a long way, a very long way, towards blunting that attack tonight, and that will have profound consequences. There will be questions over the next few days mostly about how Edwards and Obama failed in this most recent debate to further the attack on her and the brilliance of teh Hillary people in preparing their candidate ad executing a public relations strategy (for better or for worse, most Americans knew heading into the debate that Hillary had been under fire from her opponents - a characterization her campaign happily played into, with the "piling on" charge). That set up the expectation of an Edwards/Obama attack that felt like a slow ball pitch for Hillary to hit out of the park. In short, Edwards and Obama got played.

[saltpoint]

23. President Gephardt and President Dean might want to weigh in on

shifting percentages in the Iowa caucus.

This is still almost anyone's race.

[Dawgs]

24. If Hillary wins Iowa she wins the nomination.

If Obama or Edwards win Iowa they will immediately get a 10 point boost. If Hillary wins, she solidifies her lead.

[saltpoint]

27. Iowa's interesting because the vote is less easy to manipulate. As a media

market, it's kind of a odd duck, but a pleasant duck at that.

I like the caucus system in Iowa better than I don't like it, and it keeps our attention on the presidential race in both parties.

Dean was doing well enough -- having passed Gephardt in the polls by late fall or so -- that it appeared he would take Iowa. Plenty of volunteers, sufficient cash, momentum, a fresh face, an upward trend in the polls, the Gore endorsement... he had it all until he didn't have as many people showing up as the Kerry camp and the Edwards camp. Kerry had been written off by early fall. His numbers were in the basement and political obituaries began to appear in local papers. As for Edwards, no one mentioned him until after Christmas; then suddenly he drew 32% for a strong second-place finish to Kerry's 37%. Dean came in at 17% -- impressive by any standards other than for a touted frontrunner -- and Dick Gephardt was buried alive with only 11% -- not a bad showing in and of itself but in a field with the other three, it was more than enough to end Gephardt's run. He withdrew early the next day.

Clinton is in the lead right now in Iowa. I'm not sure it is a lead that will hold up through the next month. I think she's popular because she's well-known and because there is residual support (and significant support) for her with Vilsack and Bayh's original teams, but I just don't feel in my bones and blood that she is going to win in Iowa. I think Obama's support is off the radar but very real. I think Iowans retain a genuine affection for Edwards. I think Joe Biden's foreign policy expertise and personal charm are a winning combo.

At this point I believe HClinton finishes fourth in Iowa behind (in no predictable order) Edwards, Biden, and Obama.

[Renew Deal]

25. Either Obama or Edwards need to finish first in Iowa.

It's a requirement to make Hillary look beatable. That's why they should work together against her. One of them will lose, but they will accomplish their goal.

[Dawgs]

28. That I can agree with. The problem is that the race is close.

I'm not sure either one would go down for the other.

[geek tragedy]

26. Obama. He's on the upswing, and he has a more

positive message. And a lot more $$.

[asdjrocky]

29. My feeling is Edwards....

Though, let's face it, I may not be completely objective about this. I have talked to some people in Iowa, and not one of them (out of about ten that are going to caucus all of them are for Edwards.) The Edwards staff I speak to on the phone, either here in Ca or any where else in the country are fierce. They are forward looking people, well armed with facts, and prepared for the next step.

[BootinUp]

30. Richardson is well ahead of Joe actually

I feel a Clinton, Obama, Richardson, possibility. Ok long shot on the Governor, but no way Edwards is higher than 3rd imho.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

32. Polls suggest that the anybody-but-Hillary faction we see on DU is not a

big thing in the real world.

Obama and Edwards voters do not all have the other guy as their second choice. Many (or most) of them have Hillary as their second choice.

So an Obama-Edwards battle would probably just feed Hillary.

[saltpoint]

33. I don't dispute your point, but it may not be just those two candidates

who are vying for the non-Clinton portion of the vote.

I think we will yet hear from Senator Biden and maybe Governor Richardson.

It will be a chilly night in Iowa on January 3, more than likely. It could be those Iowa Democrats will get themselves bundled up good and warm and then head out to caucus and shock the bejesus out of all of us.

An NPR interview this past week suggested that the second choices for the second tier candidates would go to Edwards or Obama and not to Clinton. You may have the inside track on where the top tier candidates' second-choice votes would go.

This is going to be a wild and woolly event in Iowa.