For all those sceptical of the world of polling, a major pollster confirms you to be right.!

[saracat]

My local Dem party brought in a major national politcal pollster , whose name I am not sharing as I didn't ask permission, who confirmed that the current polls probablly has little to do with reality.He confirmed that the current methods of polling cannot be indicative of much of anything.And yes, as many DUers have speculated , a lot has to do with cell phones.He stated that the field of polling is "in big trouble".I thought I would share that nugget with those who are either thrilled or devasted by current polling. There is apparently no reason to have either reaction and primary day is a crap shoot! Now I guess I will ust have to duck the flames from those who will attack this but I thought it info worth sharing.

[skipos]

1. Polls right before the election have been pretty darn accurate in 2005,06 and 07

Primaries will always be too hard to poll because of the lower turnout.

[saracat]

2. Well, he states that any election now has seriously flawed polling. Period.

[Basileus Basileon]

18. Yep, everything's different now,

because Saracat's unnamed source supposedly says so. Did he explain why phone polling was worthless now, despite being spot-on in the last few major elections?

[Name removed]

3. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NYVet]

4. Depending on the size of the group polled, the way the question is worded and the time of day

calls are made, you can get any response you want.

I have ceased believing in polls.

[wyldwolf]

5. Interesting! Check this out...

MY local Dem party brought in a major national politcal pollster , whose name I am not sharing as I didn't ask permission, who confirmed that the current polls are conducted scientifically and are usually correct. He confirmed that the current methods of polling are indicative of much of everything. :shrug:

[TwilightGardener]

6. I always wondered if polling was skewed to those who happen to

be at home with a land-line during the day--read: elderly, maybe young moms. Also, a lot of people have caller ID and wouldn't answer the phone for a pollster, so now you've got to throw in the low-IQers who aren't smart enough to dodge unwanted phone calls.

[Seabiscuit]

13. Now wait just a dang minute here...

I never had caller ID. You're saying that makes me a "low-IQer"???

Dem's fightin' words!

:spray:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Well

You are suggesting there is a difference between folks who respond to pollsters and those who don't... The evidence suggests there is no difference or else final pollster vote projections would vary wildly from the final results...

Also, polls are weighted to reflect the universe they are trying to measure; i.e. a poll is going to have the correct percentages of moms, single women, older women, men, women, etcetera...


Not you, but when people piss on polls they are pissing on math, science, and statistics...

[sufrommich]

7. Maybe your pollster friend is senile. nt

[saracat]

8. Flames as expected.pathetic and sad.

[Windy]

9. It is seen as a "round about" assault by Hillary supporters who

prove time and time again that they have NO objectivity and their ability to participate in an intelligent discussion is lacking.

[MGKrebs]

10. So the OP provides an unsubstantiated personal anecdote, which is

then rebutted by scientific data, and your contribution to the "intelligent discussion" is to rush to the defense of the the anecdote by offering a broad generalization insult?

[rinsd]

11. Zing!!

[booley]

12. Well if an unnamed source backs up what i want to hear, then it must be true!

Sigh..

You know I atually don't trust polls. But even I might need more then what you say you heard some guy say once.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Here's The Final Polls For Kerry-Bush*

http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm#Pollster

If those folks were guessing they are the best guessers in the world...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Here's A Link To The Polling Results For The 06 Mid Terms...

http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/SUSA2006ElectionReportCard.htm


Amazing how close they come...

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Perry Logan]

19. If the polls were drastically inaccurate, wouldn't each poll contradict the one before?

I mean, wouldn't the polls just be all over the place, with no discernible pattern? I know there are fluctuations and differences among polls. But they have a certain pattern and consistency to them, don't they?

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. Ready... aimed... oh never mind

my flame thrower wants to throw flowers

:-)