Ok So who is going to be the GOP nominee

[Perky]

And ummm yeah..... it does matter.. you can forget about the national horse race polls. It is all about the electoral college and who wins where.

Also bear in mind that Romney is well ahead in Iowa and NH, but is an also ran in SC which is up for grabs.

THIS IS NOT ABOUT WHO YOU WANT TO FACE OFF AGAINST, BUT WHO THE DYSFUNCTIONAL GOP WILL WIND UP NOMINATING

[TwilightGardener]

1. Rudy--still the Number One choice of Neocons everywhere.

If not, then Romney.

[terrya]

2. Romney

He will be the GOP nominee.

[cyberswede]

3. Huckabee

He's appealing to the fundies, and just "regular" enough to get votes.
I think he's a dark horse in this one.
eek!

[Perky]

7. I suspect he will be the Iowa suprise

FInish second and he may make it a two man race with Romney, because it may bolt him to the lead in South Carolina.

Rationale
Rudy does not win by SC... or if he does not come in second in New Hampshire he is toast... He is going to be viewed as an also ran.
McCain is the same thing.
Thompson loses his Fundy suppot in SC if Huchabee finishes in the money in Iowa.

Two man race if Huckabee finishes second in Iowa,

Sets up the real split in the GOP between Rockefeller Republicans and the Relgious Right.

[TwilightGardener]

10. Huckabee is an Iowa aberration, because Rudy and McCain aren't

competetive there, and Thompson tanked badly. He's not going to win anything else, even if he wins Iowa.

on edit--he's kind of like Edwards in that regard: even if Edwards wins Iowa, that's where it will pretty much end.

[cyberswede]

11. I'm in Iowa

And I believe Huckabee is gaining in the polls. Romney is ahead here becasue he's running ads like crazy - I don't recall seeing any Ghouliana ads (I may have seen a McCain ad - I can't remember). But Romney is all over the place. If Huckabee runs some ads in the upcoming weeks, he may be able to pull off 2nd.

Oh - I also saw a Ron Paul ad this morning - it didn't mention the Iraq war - just a bunch of libertarian claptrap. I have seen some Ran Paul yard signs - nobody else. creepy!

thx - cs

[Perky]

12. .

[Tejanocrat]

15. I agree. 1 and 2 in Iowa will be Willard and Huckabible. Who'll finish 6th: Ghouliani, McCraven,

Mad Doc Paul or Hollywood Thompson. 6th is into-the-toilet bad. One of those guys will come in 6th. I'm betting it won't be Paul because he's got a hard core of nutjob supporters who ought to be able to keep him in the top 5.

That means Giuliani, McCain or Thompson is going to have their ass handed to them, in an end-of-the-road embarrassment.

Who will it be?

[cosmik debris]

4. Not ME! Al Gore and I are both out of the running. n/t

[liberal N proud]

5. I wouldn't rule out Jeb as a late, late entry

[robbedvoter]

6. I went with Romney because he's more maleable

Even if neocons control it all, they might think twice about unleashing an egomaniac like Rudy - no figurehead, he.

[skipos]

8. Mittens is going to buy it. He leads in IA, NH and SC

I don't think Dame Rudy can overcome that.

[On the Road]

9. The Early States are Soooooo Important

It bodes well for Romney (and for Edwards).

[Tejanocrat]

13. It'll be Willard-Huckabible '08

[Adelante]

14. Huckabee nt

[JohnLocke]

16. Romney, or Huckabee - probably Romney.

[mtnsnake]

17. Definitely Romney although I wish it would be Gullini. He'd be so fun to beat.

Gulliaini will be absolutely unelectable if he gets their nod, which I highly doubt will happen.

[Samantha]

18. I am thinking the GOP ticket will be Romney/Huckabee

Romney will squeak by Rudy, take the nomination, and need a strong conservative that will play in the South in an effort to capture the Big Prize. Romney is from Massachusetts; Huckabee is from Arkansas -- sounds about right to me. But what do I know about GOP politics....