Like the man said "It ain't over 'till it's over"

[bklyncowgirl]

People proclaiming that Hillary Clinton has locked up the Democratic primary need to look at only two things. One, the effects of her fumbling over the hot button issue if illegal aliens during a televised debate and two the experience of the most recent Democratic front runner Howard Dean.

I took a little trip down memory lane compliments of Proquest's New York Times. A search for articles on Dean from November 1 through December 31 pointed out a few interesting things.

Dean was clearly the front runner in early November, he confidently rejected public campaign funding in early November. He was also the subject of attack from other candidates particularly regarding his remarks about how Democrats should be getting the votes of people with the confederate flag on their trucks.

By early December, a conservative group, Club For Growth, was running ads against him. (12/5) Remember "latte sipping" liberals? He received the endorsement of Al Gore much to the shock and horror of the Democratic establishment (oh the betrayal). The Bush administration was beginning to focus on Dean as the eventual Democratic nominee (12/11)--the article concluded that Dean made both Democrats and Republican very nervous--both were far more comfortable with Dick Gephardt or John Kerry.

By December 15 Dean's (prophetic)remarks that Saddam Hussein's capture had not made America any safer sent his critics into hypermode. Shortly after a Democratic funded 527 was running attack ads against him featuring the scowling visage of Osama Bin Laden. Dean called foul and appealed to DNC Chairman Terry McAuliff. The damage however had been done, the icing on the cake occurred when vintage footage of Howard Dean saying exactly what he thought about Iowas beloved Caucus system was leaked to the media by a rival campaign.

Now I'm not saying that Hillary Clinton is Howard Dean. She is far more disciplined and prepared campaigner. She enjoys the backing of the Democratic establishment (with the possible exception of the current DNC chair ironically one Howard Dean). Still things happen and even the most prepared candidates make mistakes. Voters get nervous--Is this who we really want? Can this person win?

Like the man said, it ain't over 'till it's over.

[MethuenProgressive]

1. What "people" are "proclaiming" that?

"People proclaiming that Hillary Clinton has locked up the Democratic primary..."
I keep reading this meme here on DU.
Who, exactly, has said this?

[Armstead]

8. Watch television or read much?

Listening to most of the gab shows, it's already a race between Hillary and Gouhiali or Mittens. The primaries are just a formality according to the MSM.

[MethuenProgressive]

11. So, you don't have any names or quotes either?

:shrug: Look up "meme" Armstead.

[Armstead]

13. That sounds like a familiar tactic

I'm not going on a hunt for specific quotes, because you will simply find reasons to dismiss it.

So I'll just suggest you turn on your TV and watch Hardball or any of the other TV news and discussion shows. If you don't catch the inevitability message -- even now -- then I'd suggest you find an ear-wax removal kit.

[MethuenProgressive]

15. Yes, saying "some people say" is a certain kind of familiar tactic.

As is ignoring requests to back up assertions with facts.

[Armstead]

16. I simply made a suggestion you can easily follow.

Spend a little time with the news, and you'll see plenty of examples.

I know it's a familiar tactic of the Clintonites (and freepers) to keep demanding "proof" of the obvioous, sending people on time wasting searches, only to have the results further denied and knit-picked.

If I were to bother to find examples, you'd simply say "You just got some isolated exceptions" or something equally dismissive.

So just turn your TV on, open some MSM newspapers and you can easily find plenty of examples.

[Forkboy]

23. Like you doing it here?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3705280&mesg_id=3705397

Thanks for playing. :hi:

[MethuenProgressive]

26. Like I said, everyone does it:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3065977

[MethuenProgressive]

27. Still no links? No quotes? Nothing? Just a meme echo?

Oh well, it's just DU. Not like this stuff is new here.

[JTFrog]

2. What we anticipate seldom occurs;

what we least expect generally happens.

[bklyncowgirl]

3. You mean there's still hope for my guy, Bill Richardson? nt

[JTFrog]

5. Absolutely. n/t

[sendero]

4. There's one big problem with your theory..

.... the GOP was scared to death of Dean, for good reason.

They WANT to run against HRC, for equally good reason.

HRC will be the nominee, as unhappy about it as I am.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. If You Have Evidence To Support Your Thesis Please Produce It

DSB

[bklyncowgirl]

10. Sorry, I didn't bookmark the articles. This was off a proprietory database

I was just refreshing my own memory of events. Actually, I'd thought Dean had started to stumble earlier but no.

My point was that Dean was riding high until mid-December. When he started to fall it came fast and hard.

It's now mid-November. All I'm saying that it's too early to proclaim Hillary Clinton the inevitable winner.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. A Few Points

1) I was referring to the poster's assertion that the Rethuglicans want to run against Hillary... Until someone can provide evidence of that it's fair to call it a thesis in search of reality...

2) I can cite articles , just from today, from Dick Armey and Dick Morris that Hillary is the last Democrat the Rethuglicans want to run against...

3) McCain and Romney are already running negative ads against Hillary in New Hampshire... If they really want to face her , why are they weakening her now, presumably in the hope she never gets the nomination in the first place...

4) At this time of 03 Dean had a four point lead in the polls and was only running three points ahead of undecided:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Hillary's leads in national polling is anywhere from twenty to thirty percent:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm

Can Hillary be upset? Of course, but right now she's in the strongest position of any Democrat..

[bklyncowgirl]

14. Hey, where did I say that the Republicans want to run against Hillary?

I do know that the Republican candidates are posturing to show themselves as the most likely to beat her. I don't know that they actually WANT to run against her. I don't know that they DO want to run against her--although that is an assertion that many here make.

My guess is that they have dossiers on every candidate and are quite prepared to slime whoever the Democrats nominate. IMHO a candidate without a vote for the Iraq war resolution would be easier to defend but that's just my opinion.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. No-Sendero Did

I responded to his post... Then you responded to mine -:)

Who knows what the Rethug's want?

Maybe they are saying they don't want to run against HRC so we will think they really want to run against her and nominate someone else or maybe they are just being candid... Maybe Rove said she was "unelectable" because he really believes she's "electable" and wants us to nominate someone else... I can't peer into people's hearts and minds... I can peer back into history and see Rethugs don't fare very well in elections against Clintons...

As for the IWR, Hillary is where the vast majority of Americans are on this war, rightly or wrongly...They supported it at the beginning but soured on it when it went south... I suspect if Iraq was a pacific place now with a democratic government and the rule of law Bush* would be at 60% in the polls, the Rethugs would still control Congress, and they would be in good shape in 08...

[John Q. Citizen]

18. This shows that the Republicans want to run against Hillary, becaus they already are,

just as the Dems want to run against bush.


"3) McCain and Romney are already running negative ads against Hillary in New Hampshire... If they really want to face her , why are they weakening her now, presumably in the hope she never gets the nomination in the first place..."

They aren't weaking her to Democratic voters, they are using Hillary to motivate Republicans to vote for them in the Republican primary. That's pretty obvious, if you just think about it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Many Prominent Rethuglicans Have Opined That Hillary Would Be The Toughest Dem To Beat

You can hate Dick Morris, Dick Armey, Pat Buchanan, and Newt Gingrich but they are not idiots and not without political acumen...

[John Q. Citizen]

24. Yes, and I recall fondly when the late Bill Walsh, coach of 49er fame used wax endlessly about

how tough next weeks opponent was sure to be, right up until game day, when he and his team served them their asses on a platter.

I can't remember a single game that Walsh didn't predict probable defeat for his team.

He was a very smart guy.

[sendero]

19. You'll get your evidence...

... the minute the nomination is final and the MSM and the RW noise machine revert to 1998.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. The Clintons Rolled The Right Wing Noise Machine In 1998

Ken Starr had a nine percent approval rating and the Dems picked up some Congressional seats...

[John Q. Citizen]

25. Yes, and the Repos held congress, got what they wanted out of Clinton,

and went on to actually compete with a rich frat boy in 2000.

Oh, Bill showed them alright. When he sat down at his desk and signed the latest legislation passed by the Republican run congress, he really showed them.

[bklyncowgirl]

7. I think that Dean made both parties nervous

Dean scared the Republicans because he could rouse the base and bring in new voters.

He worried the Democrats because his strong antiwar positions were at odds with many members of Congress who still supported the war. Many believed that he would alienate swing voters.

Dean was a wild card. I think he would have run a strong populist campaign and could well have beaten Bush handily. Having seen the current Democratic Party chairman in one on one debates with Ralph Nader and Richard Perle, I would have paid to see him go mano a mano with George W. Bush. At the very least if he lost he would have gone down swinging.

Too bad for all sorts of reasons.

The Democratic establishment clearly backs Clinton. I honestly can't see them switching their allegience to anyone else. Obama--too black and green. Edwards--too populist. Biden--loose canon. Richardson--stepped off the Beltway reservation by calling for a quick end to the Iraq war. There's an orneryness in the voter population these days, however. They're fed up with the crap from both parties. It could be that this could hurt Clinton in the end.

We'll see.

[Armstead]

9. Good analysis

I hopoe the ornriness factor kicks in this time.

[sendero]

20. I'm not the least bit worried..

... about the "democratic establishment". You are right, they will line up because that's what they're already doing.

Yeah Dean was about 2 years ahead of his time, that was his big fault.