Will Cell Phones be Dean's Undoing in Iowa?

[deminflorida]

Quoted from dailykos from the Washington Post:

"Bill Carrick, one of Gephardt's advisers, said all the other candidates should be rooting for Gephardt to stop Dean in Iowa.
This isn't idle chatter, but the genesis of a potential "stop Dean" strategy. The Iowa Caucuses are a peculiar beast. People cast an initial ballot for their guy. But, if their guy doesn't break the 15 percent barrier, they can change their vote to a more viable candidate. In essence, supporters will work hard to garner the votes of the other caucus goers to get their guy as many votes as possible.

In the past, each caucus was a self-contained election. There was little the candidates could do to sway the votes of their supporters. But we now have a dandy new tool called the cell phone, and the caucuses may never be the same.

In short, campaign organizers can now call each individual caucus and attempt to move their supporters en masse to whatever candidate they choose.

So, if early in the night, it appears that Dean is headed for a narrow victory, Kerry could move five percent of his supporters, via a few cell phone calls, onto the Gephardt column. A Gephardt win would obviously serve Kerry's interests heading into the NH primary.

But Kerry has been showing a bit of strength in Iowa lately, so he may want to cling to every percentage he's got. However, Edwards may have up to 10 percent he may be able to shift around. Clark and Lieberman may collectively have another five percent (though without an Iowa ground operation, it might be tough to move those supporters).

But ultimately, Kerry will have the greatest ability to influence the results of the race. What's more important to him? If it looks like he might eke out a second-place finish ahead of Gephardt, then all bets are off. If he's narrowly trailing, he'll either have to 1) hope he can pick up the additional support once the horsetrading begins, 2) keep his votes and aim for the highest percentage possible, or 3) gamble that a Gephardt victory will somehow dent Dean's momentum heading into NH.

The caucuses should provide great drama."


http://www.dailykos.com/

[HFishbine]

1. And people are robots (n/t)

[Padraig18]

2. Sounds like a recipe for a clusterf*ck, to me.

:shrug:

[deminflorida]

8. Hey your right, and here it is:

"People cast an initial ballot for their guy. But, if their guy doesn't break the 15 percent barrier, they can change their vote to a more viable candidate."

[deminflorida]

3. Sounds to me after the Harkin endorsement this morning,

that this will be their strategy in Iowa. If Kerry can't have 2nd, he can derail Dean there.

[liberalnurse]

4. I think the entire problem we have today is a direct

result of democrats failures in Florida, 2000.

[deminflorida]

6. What the hell does Florida have to do with Iowa?..you know what

if you can't take the heat....

[deminflorida]

9. The only guy that failed, endorsed Howard Dean....

that's your problem.

[dajabr]

12. Antonin Scalia endorsed Dean?

:silly:

[deminflorida]

19. Well Scalia sure as hell isn't from Florida....

n/t

[deminflorida]

20. By the way keep bashing us down here in Florida....

come March 8th, you'll be sorrrrrryyyyy.....

[Padraig18]

22. I don't think that was a bash at Florida Democrats

I think it was a bash at Democrats' failure to fight tooth-and-nail the screwing we got IN Florida. :)

[deminflorida]

23. Democrats in Florida took that issue all the way to the State

Supreme Court and won, Bush appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court and won. You want to tell me what the hell else Florida Democrats could have done, riot maybe? No Al Gore the guy who endorsed Dean recently was too stupid to call for a state wide recount, he just wanted it in counties he knew he could win...there I said it, and people wonder why we are pissed at him down here. He saddled our asses with George W. Bush, now he's trying to saddle us again with Howard Dean before we even vote. Southerners don't like being taken in directions they don't want to go...think back to 1861, please.

[Padraig18]

24. The DNC/DLC is who he meant, I believe.

They had the resources, and wouldn't use them. I agree with you, FWIW, about it being silly of Gore to not ask for a statewide recount; as we now know, he would have won, even with Jebbie and Cruella's shenanigans.

[Cheswick2.0]

5. cell phones huh?

It would be just like Kerry and Gephardt to try to manipulate the results this way. They figure they own the party anyway. It is all about them and never about the voters. Don't they get that this is why they are doing so poorly to begin with?

[robbedvoter]

11. THEY own the party? They campaign!

Other people make demands. No one is entitled to nomination. It's the primaries! And with every new mail Al Gore is sending me begging for money for HD, the more he earns the name the freepers gave him.

[Cheswick2.0]

13. do you have whip lash from your sudden about face?

Wow

[deminflorida]

21. Gore has 8 million dollars in campaign funds he's sitting on...

why doesn't he re-direct some of that to Dean..wanna know why....
He has plans for it in 2008.

[Padraig18]

28. It's his money.

He's free to do with it as he wishes. :)

[Cheswick2.0]

30. yeahsureright

don't be silly.

PS.... how do you know what he is doing with that money? Maybe he has already given some to Dean and maybe he has given some to lots of different candidates. Is it really any of your business?

[in_cog_ni_to]

32. But...but...but...

wouldn't those voters have to change THEIR vote? How can it be all about Kerry and Gebhardt when it's the VOTERS themselves who would have to change THEIR vote? :eyes: Poor Howie. Everyone is picking on him. :cry:

[Cheswick2.0]

33. I wish I understood your point

I have a feeling you meant something by what you just said, but it is a bit muddy. Want to try again?

[in_cog_ni_to]

35. Here's your post I replied to.

It would be just like Kerry and Gephardt to try to manipulate the results this way. They figure they own the party anyway. It is all about them and never about the voters. Don't they get that this is why they are doing so poorly to begin with?


My post.....wouldn't those voters have to change THEIR vote? How can it be all about Kerry and Gebhardt when it's the VOTERS themselves who would have to change THEIR vote? Poor Howie. Everyone is picking on him.

The whole original post was about VOTERS being able to change THEIR vote to a more viable candidate if their candidate doesn't do at least 15%.

Kerry can phone his supporters to change THEIR votes to Gep to defeat Dean. My post was to point out that if the Kerry voters switch "THEIR" votes to Gep, wouldn't it STILL be about the "VOTERS" and not Kerry and Gep? who, as you say, seem to think they "own the party".... the "VOTERS" are the ones who have to change "THEIR" votes....not Kerry and not Gep...the "VOTER" will cast HIS/HER vote for Gep. So it IS still about the voter. THAT was my muddy point.

[Dr. Wu]

7. Didn't Kerry write off Iowa and decide to move on?

<<<Kerry will have the greatest ability to influence the results of the race. What's more important to him? If it looks like he might eke out a second-place finish ahead of Gephardt, then all bets are off.>>>

I thought Kerry decided to forego Iowa for greener pastures.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. No. Kerry is making a big deal of Iowa

Pouring money and people in there. He wants to make a strong showing.

[deminflorida]

10. I would say that collectively, Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman, and Clark

could come up with a combined 5% of the total vote in Iowa. In a close race between Gephardt and Dean, that could mean everything.

[SheilaT]

15. What I find most amusing about this

is that it assumes that the individuals in the caucuses will sheep-like switch their allegiance as ordered by cell-phone calls. I'm not an Iowan, but I really doubt that. I rather expect that the good people of Iowa will make up their own individual minds and vote their consciences in the caucuses.

Too bad someone's not doing a poll in which people rank order their candidates. It would be interesting to know if there's any consistency in the second choices. Maybe most Clark people prefer Gephardt second, most Kerry people Kucinich -- I'm completely making this up of course. I do know that a lot of non Dean supporters who post here on DU have essentially said they'll vote for anyone but Dean. I wonder what all of those whose first choice candidate doesn't get nominated will do in the end.

[tsipple]

16. Answer: No

Although I have heard that those Dean people don't have any cell phones because they haven't discovered them yet. Only the Gephardt team has access to cell phones.

I also heard that Joe Trippi knows nothing about the Iowa Caucuses. He's never worked there, never organized one, and really doesn't know how they work.

:evilgrin:

[Padraig18]

18. Fire GOOD!

LOL! :P

[bluestateguy]

17. Clark supporters in Iowa: Vote for Gephardt

Gebhart has nowhere to go, and if other candidates can consolidate their support behind Gebhart in Iowa Dean's momentum can be stifled.

[jburton]

25. Three problems with this

1. Cellphone ownership is not exclusive to Kerry supporters.

2. If a campaign doesn't have the support already in place to secure 15% at a caucus, would it really have the capability to organize a list of cell-phone caucus-goers, and a system in place to contact them, gain input of how each caucus is going at any time, persuade, etc.? This would be a massive undertaking (especially since it is such a narrow time frame - caucus night). Want to call one caucus attendee in each county? That's 99 calls right there. Want to call ten in each county? That's 990 calls. All of these calls would have to be made in an extremely narrow timeframe.

3. All of this is COMPLETELY MOOT when the caucus chair says "Turn off all electronic devices, including cell phones, pagers, and text-devices" at the beginning of the meeting. That's what my caucus chair does, and I'm sure plenty of others do too.


edit: grammar nightmare

[Padraig18]

26. Turn off all electronic devices, including cell phones, pagers..."

And the Luddites strike a blow for democracy! :P

[sleipnir]

27. Kerry cheats to win, just great...

I hope this isn't actual policy coming out of the campaign. If so, this is lower than low, even for Kerry. Why can't we have an honest election in America? If the voters want Howard Dean, then we should get Howard Dean and Kerry should realize this fact and drop out after he loses. Sickening if this is true.

[Cheswick2.0]

29. I think this sneaky little plan will backfire on Kerry

and on anyone else involved. The best thing we can do is let everyone know it is happening. Kerry and Gephardts plan will sink them even lower than they are already.

[in_cog_ni_to]

36. Sneaky little plan???

What? Now you are saying that Iowans cannot vote for the candidate they choose to vote for? Is Kerry going to hold a gun to their heads to make them vote for Gep? This is how the Iowa caucuses work.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

31. Bullshit. Dailykos is pro-Dean and is smearing Kerry

this is bullshit.

[paulk]

34. it's not cheating

It's the way the Iowa caucuses work. It's the way they've always worked.

In fact, this sort of horsetrading is the way American politics work.

And as for your saying "if the voters want Howard Dean" - Dr. Dean has yet to show a MAJORITY in any poll - and it's for certain that no vote has been cast yet - so, you don't know what voters want. Don't assume that the supporters of other candidates support Howard Dean.

[sleipnir]

38. No, it may not be "cheating" but it's certainly unethical

The use of celluar technology to circumvent the system is highly unethical in my opinion and should be outlawed. I am aware of the nature of the cacucus' in Iowa, but I feel that this is tantamount to annoucing a "flashmob" for Kerry or whatever candidate you'd like.

Oh, and as far as Howard Dean being what the voters want, look at NH and many of the national polls have Dean ahead by 10-20%, which is certainly a Majority in anyone's book.

Lets hope the whole incident is merely just fanatic journalism, and not true Kerry policy. But the way he's been acting lately, any dirty trick is possible from his campaign staff. It's a shame that he's letting those people conduct his campaign in an undignified and petulant manner. Shame on them, Kerry's better than that.

[Hep]

37. As long as it's "Beat Dean" and not "Win Because I'm Better"

I think we'll be just fine. Thanks for sharing your concern!