New Zogby for IA: Clinton 28, Obama 25, Edwards 21, Richardson 9, Not Sure 12

[rinsd]

Zogby Poll: Clinton Clings to Iowa Lead

Latest Zogby poll shows race tightens dramatically when second choices of minor candidate supporters are included

Note to news outlets: This Zogby poll is free from copyright restrictions. You are free to broadcast or publish this release in whatever format you choose. There is no need to seek further permission from Zogby International.

Democrat Hillary Clinton is holding on to a tenuous lead among likely Democratic caucus–goers in Iowa less than two months before those caucus participants will gather in neighborhood meetings to decide which candidate should carry their party banner into the 2008 presidential election.

She leads with 28% support, down from 30% in an August Zogby telephone poll. Barack Obama of Illinois, having made a serious campaign blitz of Iowa in recent months, is showing some progress at 25%, up from 19% in August. Holding steady in third place is John Edwards of North Carolina at 21%, down a bit from the late summer poll. Undecideds remain steady at 12%.

However, the race tightens dramatically when second choices are factored into the mix – a critical wrinkle in the Iowa caucuses. In the caucuses, a first round of “balloting” is conducted, and those candidates who do not win at least 15% support are ruled “unviable” and supporters are directed to a second choice among those who remained “viable” before a second round of “balloting” is conducted. Zogby polling shows Edwards makes big strides as a second–choice candidate, jumping six percent (see chart).

Pollster John Zogby: “This is a real horserace coming into the stretch run. With less than two months before the caucuses, this is anybody’s ballgame.”

The survey shows Edwards wins second–choice support from Richardson backers and from Biden backers – both experienced pols with long Washington resumes. Obama also benefited more as a second choice than Clinton, making the race extremely tight.

Gender politics has been a big factor in the Democratic nomination battle, and Clinton – the first woman to be a front–runner for a major party nomination, leads among Iowa women with 32%, compared to 27% for Obama and 19% for Edwards. Among men, it’s a deadlock, with Edwards at 24%, and Clinton and Obama both at 23% support.

However, the picture changes a bit among second–choice voters, where Edwards wins 25% support, compared to 23% for Obama and 18% for Clinton. Among men making a second choice, Edwards also leads with 24% support, compared to 21% for Obama and 19% for Clinton.

But Clinton’s support appears stronger than that of Edwards and Obama. Asked about the likelihood they could change their minds before January, just 39% of Clinton backers said it is likely, compared to 50% of Obama supporters and 51% of Edwards supporters.

Asked whether former President Bill Clinton would have a negative or positive impact on a Hillary Clinton presidency, should one come to pass, Iowa Democrats are mostly optimistic. While 79% said his impact would be positive, nine percent said it would be negative and 12% were unsure.

The telephone survey was conducted November 6, 2007, and included 502 likely Democratic caucus-goers statewide. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

I suggest people check the link for charts. Zogby has them in a difficult format to transfer
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1385

[TwilightGardener]

1. Iowa is going to be a nail-biter.

[rinsd]

4. Yup. Iowa has remained virtually unchanged in the last 3 months. Still a dead heat.

[PresidentObama]

10. Iowa is probably going to be the most unpredictable.

Just because none of the top-tier candidates have big leads there, and even some second tier candidates (Richardson and Biden) could pop out some surprises. It's going to be interesting.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Looks like Edwards has lost some men and gained some women.

Obama will probably win Iowa.

[bunnies]

3. Why is it so close there & not anywhere else?

It perplexes me.

[Beaverhausen]

5. the race is close in the early primary states where the candidates are campaigning

nationally, polls are mostly about name recognition, so I don't take them too seriously.

The voters in the early states are getting to know the candidates and the issues better and are more aware. At least that's my take on it.

[bunnies]

7. I know in NH Clinton has been way out in front for a while...

seems to line up more with the national polling. I guess thats why Im so confused by it. Maybe things will start to change here now that more people start paying attention. Ive gotten two mailers from the Richardson campaign just this week!

[Virginia Dare]

6. The candidates are actually campaigning there?

more coverage and name recognition of all the candidates. The national media is focused on Hillary right now, and she's the only one (with the exception of possibly Edwards) with broad national recognition.

[bunnies]

8. Yes but... theyre campaigning here too!

adding: maybe theyve campaigned more in IA than here... makes sense.

[Bitwit1234]

9. He he he he he he .......

[surfermaw]

11. Told you three days ago, it was a tie

Hate to admit it but I think Fox was the station that reported last week it was a toss up, but when Dennis give over to Edwards, he will win by 3% points.