Obama (not Hillary) fares MUCH better against the Ghoul

[Stop Cornyn]

Contrary to what some Hillbots apparently believe, to win the election, a candidate must win a majority of electoral votes. Winning the popular vote doesn't count (you may recall that Gore indisputably won the popular vote in 2000 but had the electoral college vote swindled away).

Yet even national polls (which do not reflect how the election works) show that Hillary does the same as Obama and Edwards against Giulaini:

The most recent with data for all three Democrats (Newsweek's poll of 10/31 - 11/01) shows Hillary leading Giulaini by 45% to 49%, Edwards leading him by 45% to 48%, and Obama leading him by 45% to 48%.

The tightness of this national contest (which, again, is NOT how the election works) echoes the earlier Rasmussen polling which shows Giuliani leading Hillary by 2% (46% to 44%), leading Obama by 2% (45% to 43%), and leading Edwards by only 1% (45% to 44%).

Anyone who thinks this shows a national advantage for Hillary against Giuliani as compared to Edwards or Obama just don't understand polling or their margins of error.

In head-to-head polls which reflect how elections really work (i.e., state-by-state), Hillary does WORST against Giuliani as compared with Edwards and Obama because Hillary wins the blue states by a larger percentage than Edwards or Obama, but she loses more red and purple states.

In the Quinnipiac poll released on October 31 breaks down how the candidates do in red states, blue states, and purple states. Hillary beats Giuliani handily in blue states, but she gets creamed in red states, and -- MOST WORRYINGLY -- she gets creamed in purple states too:

Red - Blue - Purple

40% - 50% - 41% -- Clinton
49% - 38% - 47% -- Giuliani

Obama also beats Giuliani handily in blue states, but he does better (yet still loses by a 1/3 smaller margin than Hillary) in red states, and does much better (barely winning) in purple states:

Red - Blue - Purple

39% - 48% - 43% -- Obama
45% - 38% - 42% -- Giuliani

If you plan to vote based on who is a better match up against Giuliani, it is Obama, not Hillary, who you should support.

[AtomicKitten]

1. I think a NY'er versus a NY'er might limit the appeal of the election.

It would be a balls-out hate festival ginned up as red meat.

[Bitwit1234]

2. Tsk tsk tsk tsk and so it goes....will it ever stop the spin of my the spin.

[rinsd]

3. You cite the importance of state polls over national while using a national poll.

While I see it does breakdowns by blue/red/purple, I wonder what the MOE was on that subgroup.

But if state polls are more important why not cite the ones we have directly.

Here are all the National head to head polls taken within the last 3 weeks. Hillary as the frontrunner has more matchups with the frontrunner for the GOP Rudy.

Poll	            Date	Sample	Giuliani (R)Clinton (D)	Und	Spread
RCP Average	        10/17 - 11/04	-	44.1	48.5	5.1	Clinton +4.4
CNN	                11/02 - 11/04	929 RV	45	51	4	Clinton +6.0
USA Today/Gallup	11/02 - 11/04	938 RV	45	51	1	Clinton +6.0
Newsweek	        10/31 - 11/01	1002 RV	45	49	6	Clinton +4.0
ABC/Wash Post	        10/29 - 11/01	1131 A	46	50	1	Clinton +4.0
Marist	                10/29 - 11/01	1102 A	40	50	10	Clinton +10.0
Quinnipiac	        10/23 - 10/29	1636 RV	45	43	6	Giuliani +2.0
Rasmussen	        10/22 - 10/23	800 LV	46	44	10	Giuliani +2.0
Democracy Corps (D)	10/21 - 10/23	994 LV	45	49	3	Clinton +4.0
Pew Research	        10/17 - 10/23	1607 RV	43	51	6	Clinton +8.0
LA Times/Bloomberg	10/19 - 10/22	512 RV	41	47	4	Clinton +6.0

Poll	            Date	Sample	Giuliani (R)Obama (D)	Und	Spread
RCP Average	        10/19 - 11/01	-	43.0	44.3	9.8	Obama +1.3
Newsweek	        10/31 - 11/01	1002 RV	45	48	7	Obama +3.0
Rasmussen	        10/29 - 10/30	800 LV	45	43	12	Giuliani +2.0
Quinnipiac	        10/23 - 10/29	1636 RV	42	43	8	Obama +1.0
LA Times/Bloomberg	10/19 - 10/22	522 RV	40	43	12	Obama +3.0 

Then there is the matter of protecting our NE flank from Rudy.

According to the Q poll Hillary is in a dead heat with Rudy in NJ while Rudy crushed Obama & Edwards.

I think any Dem can win NY but Hillary is the strongest there beating him soundly while Obama and Edwards are in dead heats with him. The same thing with PA.

Clinton outperforms Obama vs Rudy in FL (Hillary & Rudy have seesawed in the lead within the MOE) and is about the same as Edwards in FL.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml

Survey USA shows that while Hillary destroys Rudy in MA, Obama has him by about 6. She also destroys Rudy in CA while Obama is again up by 5 or so.

Unfortunately the only head to head polling of some Southern/Midwestern states is from early Oct.

But Hillary outperforms Obama vs. Rudy in FL, OK, VA, NM, & AL. Obama outperforms her in MO & KS. Though is some of those matchups both are losing handily.

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Why Do You Call People Hill Bots? It's Pejorative

And why do you ignore a dozen polls and hang your hat on the one or two polls that makes your case?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

Also, the Electoral College usually follows the popular vote...In fact it magnifies the popular vote advantage...It's almost inconceivable a candidate could win the pop vote by two, three , four points and lose the Electoral College..

[Stop Cornyn]

5. Same reason I call Obama suporters "Obamaincs" and Kucinich supporter "Kucinchistas"

I didn't ignore any polls. I focused on the most recent poll which had head-to-head data with all three top Democratic candidates and the most recent poll which had the same information but broken down between red states, blue states, and purple states.

[ronnykmarshall]

11. So you're an equal opportunity offender?

Ok.

That explains a lot.

[Colobo]

6. With Obama, we all win.

[Stop Cornyn]

7. I think we win by a landslide with Obama, Edwards and even Richardson. Hillary cuts it unnecessarily

close, and offers no ideological pay off in exchange for subjecting us to the greater risk of losing.

[elizm]

9. Yes, it is all about the risk factor....

which the Hillary supporters do not seem to give one moment's thought. Win at all cost and be damned the genereal election.

[maddiejoan]

8. All except us Queers.

Unless we is happy queers.

[ronnykmarshall]

10. You know what?

You can take your "Hilbot" bullshit and shove it up your ass.

Thank you.