Why Does Clinton Fare Better Against The Ghoul Than Any Other Democrat?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Here's links to over one dozen polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm


That way I can not be accused of cherry picking...

[ShortnFiery]

1. HRC won't fare better in The Real G.E. ... not at all.

That's the problem with polling - you can't control the multitude of variables that enter in voting. It's a snapshot impression and not much more than that.

There's so much material, and much of it valid, to take off and smear HRC, IMO, she won't have a political a** left by G.E. day. Hell, she may lose bigger than McGovern. :shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. "Hell, she may lose bigger than McGovern. "

And I might get a marriage proposal in today's mail from Jessica Alba...The logical predicate for either event is null...

[ShortnFiery]

13. Hey, I'm still waiting for that call from Richard Gere.

:spray: But lose, and lose big, IMO, HRC will ... only hope that the DLC disowns us and goes their own special way. :hi: ;)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I'm A Huge Richard Gere Fan

I liked his work in American Gigolo, Officer And A Gentleman, and Internal Affairs...

[ShortnFiery]

21. Then IMO, you have excellent taste in actors and OK. Even if you are for the WRONG candidate!

;) :blush: I hope you have a good day DSB. :hi:

[Frances]

4. No Democratic nominee

will avoid the Repubs' smear campaign.

For example, Pat Boone made robot calls to Kentucky voters saying that the Dem candidate for governor would support homosexuals. This was an obvious appeal to homophobia, and it was made in spite of the numerous gay Republicans who have been outed recently for illegal behavior.

I think that a person can be opposed to Hillary for good reasons, but to oppose her because she will be smeared by Repubs is not a good reason, in my opinion.

[ShortnFiery]

12. HRC and Bill have "the most material" to work with: a strong reason to oppose her nomination

[cali]

15. LOL!

Rudy has just as much in his closet, and it's all titillatingly new to the American public. If you don't think that the Clinton machine isn't holding on to a lot of that shit and prepared to smear it all over Ghouliani, you don't know politics as well as you think you do. The American people reached their Clinton scandal saturation point long ago. They'll be like sponges for Rudy scandals. And he's the most likely candidate. But if he's not, they'll have plenty of ammunition against any nom.

There are lots of valid reasons to oppose Clinton. This isn't one of them

[OHdem10]

17. On personal smears the Media has decided

that Guilliani and Clinton cancel each other out. They believe
all the "philandering BILL' cancels out Philandering Guilliani.
In other words neither can claim great personal life. This analysis
has been made by Fineman, really I have heard this given by
about 6 different news commentators. Attacks on personal lives
will be a waste of time.

[ShortnFiery]

22. And "The Media" knows every damn thing? Why, just ask them - they'll tell ya how to think.

:(

[Captain Hilts]

7. She's regularly gotten more votes than polling points. She has a shadow vote. nt

[ShortnFiery]

10. "She has a shadow vote."

Oh please stop?!?

You slay me! :rofl:

[Frances]

2. My theory is that Americans are super unhappy with Bush

Bill Clinton, on the other hand, left office (even after impeachment proceedings) with very high approval ratings.

I think many people think that Hillary is a known quantity. Now they prefer the devil they know. They are afraid to take a chance on someone they don't know.

Of course, my theory holds for today. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. It is curious because several months ago I did a post which

showed clearly (from Survey USA polls) that Edwards did much, much better against Rudy than anyone else. Then, bang, something changed and shifted completely to her. And I am serious - it was a complete 180 degree shift in one month. Something stinks...

But a match up of the two - she loses the very left and he loses the very right...

[goodhue]

6. name recognition

eom

[Tellurian]

29. Especially when Richrd Gere is a Hillary fan.. :)

[JackORoses]

8. actually Gore fares much better against him

keep that in mind

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Does He?

Link?

[Just-plain-Kathy]

9. They have to endorse Hillary, they own Bill so much.

It was Bill Clinton who handed us our billionaire/corporate-owned/propaganda media.


The Telecommunications Act of 1996 was the first major overhaul of Untied States telecommunications law in nearly 62 years, amending the Communications Act of 1934, and leading to media consolidation. It was approved by the 104th Congress on January 3, 1996 and signed into law on February 8, 1996 by President Bill Clinton.


I once posted the following quote from wikipedia. A Hillary supporter didn't like what it said so she went into wikipedia and changed it.

“Clinton’s Telecommunications Act of 1996....The Act was claimed to foster competition, but instead it led to historic industry consolidation, reducing the number of major media companies from around 80 in 1986, to 6 in 2005.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunications_Act_of_...

We have to open our eyes to the Clintons and stop corporate America from going any further to destroy our country.

[ShortnFiery]

11. Well put JpK, I'm on board with you. :-) n/t

[mdmc]

14. Do these polls take into consideration 3rd party candidates?

In NYS the RTL and the Con parties both have stated that they will run 3 party candidates if the GOP runs Ghouliani (pro-choice Ghouliani).

So Marist/Quinipiac Polls in NYS show a tie between HRC and Ghoul. They show Ghoul beating other Dems. However, the Dems, in reality, will still win NYS, cause the Conservatives+RTL voters will split the GOP vote.

I can make a poll say anything with the right questions.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. "I can make a poll say anything with the right questions."

1)I don't know how you can twist the question "If you had to vote today would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani?"...

2) I posted links to over a dozen polls so as not to cherry pick the one that reinforces my bias...

3) Hillary does better with Bloomberg in the race than without him and if the third party is anti-choice than her lead expands to nearly twenty points over Giuliani, presumably because those votes are coming out of his hide...

[mdmc]

19. I agree with all of your polls (actually I didn't look at them)

In NYS, there will be a right to life candidate on the ballot if Ghouliani gets the GOP nomination.

There is no way that Ghouliani can win in NYS without the RTL / Conservative party lines of support.

Any democrat (well maybe not Gravel or my main man Kucinich) could beat Ghouliani in NYS.

Hillary runs best against Ghouliani because she is the strongest candidate. SHE WILL BE PRESIDENT IN 2009.

In the case of NYS, the polls are flawed because they ask only if you will support Ghoul or HRC if the election was held today. If that was the case people might not vote or vote third party. The poll offers a false choice which results in flawed data.

I am just saying that Ghouliani will not be able to win in NYS. No GOP will win in NYS next year. The Dems will get NYS electoral votes.

While Marist & Quiniopiac (both great polling centers) fail to take into consideration when they stated that Ghouliani could win NYS against anyone except HRC was that the CONS+RTL would not vote for him and that he would not be able to win without CON+RTL support in NYS.

So their polls show him winning against Edwards, but the polls don't take into consideration a RTL spoiler.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Something Interesting

There's a Zogby and Survey USA Poll from NY taken at about the same time...The Zogby Poll has her up by six in NY and the Survey USA Poll has her up by thirty four points...One of them is not even remotely coorect...

[mdmc]

20. But to answer the question raised in your OP

Hillary is the strongest candidate that we have. Her bumps in the polls reflect her strength.

NO ONE CAN BEAT HRC. She will be the next pres, imho.

[themaguffin]

24. Polls mean NOTHING now. Hillary & Rudy coasting on name recognition (and Fred too)

[BootinUp]

26. Because the broad center of the electorate,

doesn't buy the RW or the LW propaganda about her. :)

Come and get me LW.

[Stop Cornyn]

27. Actually, she doesn't. You are looking at national polling numbers, but that's not how the electoral

college works.

To win the election, a candidate must win a majority of electoral votes. Winning the popular vote doesn't count (you may recall that Gore indisputably won the popular vote in 2000 but had the electoral college vote swindled away).

National polls you are showing show that Hillary does the same as Obama and Edwards against Giulaini:

The most recent with data for all three Democrats (Newsweek's poll of 10/31 - 11/01) shows Hillary leading Giulaini by 45% to 49%, Edwards leading him by 45% to 48%, and Obama leading him by 45% to 48%.

The tightness of this national contest (which, again, is NOT how the election works) echoes the earlier Rasmussen polling which shows Giuliani leading Hillary by 2% (46% to 44%), leading Obama by 2% (45% to 43%), and leading Edwards by only 1% (45% to 44%).

If you think this shows a national advantage for Hillary against Giuliani as compared to Edwards or Obama, you just don't understand polling or their margins of error.

In head-to-head polls which reflect how elections really work (i.e., state-by-state), Hillary does WORST against Giuliani as compared with Edwards and Obama because Hillary wins the blue states by a larger percentage than Edwards or Obama, but she loses more red and purple states.

In the Quinnipiac poll released on October 31 breaks down how the candidates do in red states, blue states, and purple states. Hillary beats Giuliani handily in blue states, but she gets creamed in red states, and -- MOST WORRYINGLY -- she gets creamed in purple states too:

Red - Blue - Purple

40% - 50% - 41% -- Clinton
49% - 38% - 47% -- Giuliani

Obama also beats Giuliani handily in blue states, but he does better (yet still loses by a 1/3 smaller margin than Hillary) in red states, and does much better (barely winning) in purple states:

Red - Blue - Purple

39% - 48% - 43% -- Obama
45% - 38% - 42% -- Giuliani

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Why Do You Cherry Pick Polls?

1)Do you think it's disingenuous to look at a dozen polls that suggest one phenomenon but reject all of them because one lonely two week old poll suggests a phenomenon you like?

2) If Ms. X went to thirteen oncologists and twelve told her that lump on her breast was cancerous but the thirteenth oncologist told her the lump was benign would she be correct in ignoring the warnings of the twelve oncologists that told her it was cancerous?

3) I understand how the Electoral College works but it still follows the popular vote although as we have recently seen,not exactly... A candidate is not going to win the pop vote by two , four, or six percent and lose the Electoral College...It just doesn't happen...Do you really believe a candidate can win the pop vote by four percent and lose the Electoral College?

[Stop Cornyn]

30. Choosing the most recent poll and the most recent poll with results broken down by red state/blue

blue state is not cherry picking; it's using the most recent data.