I don't see how Rudy or Romney can get the nomination

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Granted, it's not clear how they don't either, but here's the thing...

I have never seen two republicans more vulnerable to negative advertising in a pug primary contest. If the average republican voter is forced to really look at either candidate he will never stop vomiting.

All of their poll numbers are based on an environment where neither has faced any negative ads at all. (At least not from republicans... I think some liberal groups have run a few anti-Guliani ads somewhere, but just token media buys)

Until the negative ads hit, I consider their polling pretty meaningless.

That's why I have not counted McCain out of the race entirely. There's a slim chance of him being the Kerry of 2008 if republican voters are so demoralized when Rudy and Mittens take off the gloves they default to the only brand-name republican available.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. "They" said the same thing about * in 2000 and where are we now?

[liberal N proud]

2. My thought exactly

Anything can happen in this bizarre world

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. I NEVER doubted Bush would get the nod in 2000

He's an ignorant red-neck with christianist backing and a republicn brand-name. McCain never stood a chance, and anyone who said otherwise in 2000 should be barred from commenting on politics.

The point is that neither Rudy nor Romney is an ignorant christianist redneck. There are not natural republican candidates. They are like GHW Bush in 1980, but this time there's no Reagan.

Thompson isn't enough of a bible thumper and Huckabee has no money.

So it's wide open. (IMO)

[JohnnyBoots]

3. I bet it is going to be Huckabee.

[TwilightGardener]

6. No--he's just there to stop Romney. He's angling to be Rudy's VP--

he has neither the resources nor the substance to go very far beyond Iowa.

[Taverner]

4. The Christofascists are staying home during the primary

It will be their "message"

[TwilightGardener]

7. Romney will prove stronger than you think. He's the only one who can really

challenge Rudy at this point--all the others are gunning for him so that Rudy wins and they get chosen as VP (McCain, Huckabee). Thompson might actually be fighting Romney because he wants the job, but he's not fighting very hard.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. The odd thing is that Rudy is barely a front-runner

He keeps limping along at about 25%... nowhere near where Howard Dean was.

So, though he's the odds-on favorite, he hasn't sealed the deal, and finishing 4th in Iowa will not help.

I'm hoping for a total republican mess with no nominee until late.

[rinsd]

8. McCain's campaign death was prematurely called though I think he won't make it.

He runs nearly as well as Rudy vs the Big 3 but he is having fundraising problems and is not able to draw upon his personal wealth as Kerry was able to do to keep himself viable.

[Dulcinea]

10. Neither of them will play well in the South.

And the South is essential to any Repub.

Romney's Mormon faith counts against him, big time. Most Southern fundies don't consider Mormons to be Christians.

Giuliani is pro-gun control. That alone will cost him Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and probably Florida. Let's not forget that he's Catholic, another faith disdained by fundies, as well as pro-choice and pro-gay rights. And he's a sleazebag to boot!

So who will they support? Who knows?

[TwilightGardener]

11. Untrue--Romney is doing very well now in SC. It's dangerous to make

assumptions about him--unless Huckabee fatally damages him in Iowa, Romney is poised so far to win the early states.

[Tejanocrat]

12. I'll explain it to you if you can answer me 3 questions. Here's the first: What is your favorite

sports team to root for?