Hillary falls behind Rudy in the latest polls.

[Exultant Democracy]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1113
snip: Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican front-runner, leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton by a razor-thin 45 - 43 percent

snip:Giuliani's lead reverses a 46 - 43 percent Sen. Clinton lead in an August 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
There is also a little blurb here about two polls that came out today one from Pew (shows a Clinton lead) and one from Quinnipiac (shows Rudy's lead.) Apparently the Pew poll was taken early this month while the Quinnipiac poll is from last week.

I don't know how Rudy pulled ahead of Clinton with his verb noun and 9/11, but it is clear that Hillary doesn't have what it takes to beat him.

[bullimiami]

1. i call that bullshit. i guarantee you clinton is far more popular in ny than the mayor who sucked.

[Exultant Democracy]

6. you have your opinion, but this poll and the trend it shows is pretty

bad news for Clinton. The electability issue is going to be like a ten ton weight around her neck from here on out.

[rinsd]

9. A single poll is a trend?

"The electability issue is going to be like a ten ton weight around her neck from here on out"

Maybe in your world.

Poll	                    Date     Sample    Giuliani (R) Clinton (D)	Und	Spread
Quinnipiac	        10/23 - 10/29	1636 RV	      45	43	6	Giuliani +2.0
Rasmussen	        10/22 - 10/23	800 LV	      46	44	10	Giuliani +2.0
Democracy Corps (D)	10/21 - 10/23	994 LV	      45	49	3	Clinton +4.0
Pew Research	        10/17 - 10/23	1607 RV	      43	51	6	Clinton +8.0
LA Times/Bloomberg	10/19 - 10/22	512 RV	      41	47	4	Clinton +6.0
Cook/RT Strategies	10/18 - 10/21	855 RV	      39	43	11	Clinton +4.0
CNN	                10/12 - 10/14	927 RV	      47	49	1	Clinton +2.0
FOX News	        10/09 - 10/10	900 RV	      43	47	10	Clinton +4.0

Clinton has been back and forth on Ras with Rudy usually within a point or two.

She does even better vs Thompson and Romney

[superkia]

26. If you are a Clinton supporter, its bad news because they think...

these polls are the answer to everything. I don't care about them at all, even this one because they don't represent our country, many of us in this huge country have not voted or taken part in one of these polls. For the Clinton supporters it will get scary if their polls keep looking like this though, the polls have determined Clinton president already and they thrive on them like they determine the POTUS.

[emilyg]

35. She is.

[calteacherguy]

2. Too close for comfort. Way to close.

An Obama/Clark ticket would be ideal if they can both get beyond the Clark's Clinton endorsement.

[Exultant Democracy]

10. Too close for Comfort and too important to lose.

[Heywood J]

49. Close enough to be Rove'd. (NT)

[dugggy]

37. Boy you are a dreamer...Clark is already in Hillary's pocket for

possible VP candidate.

[bullimiami]

45. i think so too. clark is very close to the clintons and the most likely vp choice for hillary.

[MethuenProgressive]

3. "it is clear that Hillary doesn't have what it takes to beat him."??

We disagree as to the meaning of the word "clear".

[rinsd]

4. Q poll could be an outlier, they also have Edwards losing by 3 to Rudy.

[illinoisprogressive]

5. She looks to have the toughest time - with Obama and Edwards doing better

[Exultant Democracy]

7. This race is too important, we can't run someone who 50% of voters will never vote for.

[desi]

31. Didn't Dodd utter the same words last night?

Any idea of the percentage of voters who will not vote for Dodd? Obama, Edwards, KUCINICH, et al? I seriously don't know and that's why I'm asking. Maybe you know?

[rinsd]

8. Edwards is losing to Rudy by 3 in the Q poll.

Obama has a 1 pt lead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Mr. Hobbes Won't Let The Facts Get In The Way Of A Good Argument

DSB

[rinsd]

15. Remove the word good from your statement and I agree

;-)

[scarface2004]

11. and zippy the pinhead.....

kicks both their asses!!! what a crock of sheeet!!!!

[PurityOfEssence]

28. Wonder Warthog would clean up the place with the lot of 'em

and don't you forget it.

[madrchsod]

34. oh ya ....hungry chuck biscuits

will kick their asses----ya don`t work ya don`t eat!

[ClarkUSA]

13. MSNBC and CNN were discussing this polling all day today.

They neglected to make any mention of how the other Democratic candidates did, though.

Obama is the only candidate who leads Giuliani.

They all tie McCain and beat Romney.

*******

"Ilinois Sen. Barack Obama gets 43 percent to Giuliani's 42 percent. And Arizona Sen. John McCain
ties Clinton 44 - 44 percent, wiping out a 47 - 41 percent Clinton lead August 15.

Clinton also has seen her favorability among American voters drop from 48 - 43 percent August 15
to 46 - 46 percent today.

In other head-to-head matchups in the current survey:

Clinton leads former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 46 - 41 percent and former Massachusetts Gov.
Mitt Romney 48 - 38 percent, with both leads down from August 15;

Obama ties McCain 43 - 43 percent and beats Thompson 45 - 37 percent and Romney 46 - 36 percent;

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards trails Giuliani 44 - 41 percent; ties McCain 42 - 42 percent,
but beats Thompson 46 - 36 percent and Romney 47 - 34 percent."

[Exultant Democracy]

16. It looks like the race is just getting started in a lot of ways,

then again most people have yet to tune in.

[ClarkUSA]

23. That's right.

The rolling daily state polls during the last week leading up to the Iowa caucuses are the ones that will matter.
In 2004, those were the polls that showed Kerry trending upwards and gathering steam. We all know what
happened soon afterwards.

[Exultant Democracy]

24. Nice Halloween avatar. Is that Bush or Cheney on the broom?

[ClarkUSA]

27. Thanks.

Both of them would give witches a bad name so no broom for them.

They deserve a brooming but not their own broom.

[sniffa]

14. um, do i have to show you a poLL?

the goddess of peace easiLy trounces even jesus in every poLL ever done.

[Exultant Democracy]

18. I didn't know they were running for anything.

[wyldwolf]

17. both polls were taken last week

The Pew survey polled over 2000 people, was started on the 17th and completed on the 23rd. Like any outlier poll, the Quinnipiac one has results that differ from other polls from the same time period.

[Kahuna]

19. He was leading in NJ and PA too. So tell me Hillary supporters...

what red states will she pick up to hedge potential losses in the northeast.

[rinsd]

20. Rudy loses to Hillary in NJ & PA in Q polls. In fact she is the only Dem to beat Rudy in NJ & PA

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican front-runner, are locked in a tight 2008 presidential matchup in New Jersey, with 45 percent for Mayor Giuliani and 44 percent for Sen. Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 47 - 44 percent Giuliani lead July 5.

In other presidential matchups:

* Clinton tops McCain 46 - 41 percent, Thompson 48 - 36 percent and Romney 52 - 33 percent;
* Giuliani beats Obama 49 - 40 percent and Edwards 50 - 39 percent;
* Obama tops McCain 44 - 41 percent, Thompson 49 - 34 percent and Romney 51 - 31 percent;
* Edwards beats McCain 44 - 40 percent, Thompson 48 - 34 percent and Romney 51 - 30 percent.

Q poll for NJ - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1106

Q poll for Swings states PA, OH & FL

Matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:

* Florida: Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 43 percent, breaking a 44 - 44 percent tie September 12;
* Ohio: Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 40 percent, compared to 47 - 40 percent September 6;
* Pennsylvania: Clinton beats Giuliani 48 - 42 percent, up from 46 - 44 percent August 23.


Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:

* Clinton tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 48 - 39 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 48 - 37 percent;
* Giuliani bests Obama 42 - 39 percent and edges Edwards 43 - 41 percent;
* Obama beats Thompson 45 - 36 percent and Romney 43 - 36 percent, but trails McCain 41 - 39 percent;
* Edwards edges McCain 42 - 40 percent and beats Thompson 44 - 36 percent and Romney 47 - 33 percent.

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:

* Clinton beats McCain 48 - 38 percent, Thompson 50 -36 percent and Romney 51 - 34 percent;
* Obama tops Giuliani 44 - 38 percent, McCain 43 - 39 percent, Thompson 44 - 33 percent and Romney 47 - 31 percent;
* Edwards bests Giuliani 46 - 36 percent, McCain 46 - 35 percent, Thompson 48 - 31 percent and Romney 50 - 28 percent.

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:

* Clinton tops McCain 48 - 41 percent, Thompson 50 - 39 percent and Romney 49 - 37 percent;
* Giuliani edges Obama 45 - 43 percent and gets 44 percent to Edwards' 43 percent;
* Obama beats McCain 45 - 41 percent, Thompson 45 - 37 percent and Romney 49 - 33 percent;
* Edwards tops McCain 47 - 39 percent, Thompson 47 - 34 percent and Romney 49 - 32 percent.

[SaveElmer]

21. Do you actually read the news...

Or just make it up as you go along...

In fact Hillary is strongest in the Northeast, beats Rudy in both New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and is the only one to put NY and MA out of reach...

But don't let the actual facts get in the way of a good fantasy!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Rudi Isn' Doing Very Well In The State Of His Birth Either

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=2b437822-0643-4214-a4fa-a398c0685271&q=40145

[HockeyMom]

32. Who knows Rudy the best?

Who knows Rudy pre-9/11? That is why he is losing his home state.

[fujiyama]

25. Not a fan of hers but seems like only one poll

Personally, I don't care about 2-3 points this far ahead against Giulliani. The last several polls have been relatively close. It doesn't matter and these are oftentimes within the margin of error.

What worries me are the several different polls showing that she has a ceiling with the number of potential voters she can attract. After all, it doesn't help to have half the people against you starting off.

Obama and Edwards on the other hand, still are relatively unknown to the general public, at least compared to Hillary. Sure, that means some that get to know them will come to dislike them, but I'd be very surprised if either would be as polarizing as Hillary, having 50% committed to seeing them lose. Actually, for that matter I think Giulliani's star will diminish as the campaign goes on, because most people's exposure to him as that of the "9/11 hero" and the "guy that cleaned up NYC" (a steady stream of propaganda from the media). But Rudy strikes as nuts and I think he'll go unhinged at some point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Where Is That Statistic Coming From?

"Hillary, having 50% committed to seeing them lose..."

It's coming from one poll that has been contradicted by several polls of the same vintage...

[rinsd]

30. 50% is likely the Zogby Interactive poll.

The regular Zogby back in May had her at 46% not voting for.

[FatDave]

33. No matter how you slice it, that's close enough to steal

Something better change or we're fucked.

[Exultant Democracy]

39. election fraud only works when it is close. The 50% of the voters that would never vote for her

make it just that easier to steal even if she did managed to beat Rudy.

[Colobo]

36. Obama is our best option.

[dugggy]

38. Blunt truth is America is not ready for an African-American president

circa 2008. There is a lot of below the surface prejudice which
is not evident in the MSM, but will be fatal at the secret polling booths.

But a VP would be a good start to get the people used to a black man in
national leadership position.

[Dawgs]

41. I love it when one DUer speaks for all America.

:sarcasm:

[dugggy]

48. A long journey always begins with 1 step....

....Rabindranath Tagore.

[Perry Logan]

40. Clinton would cream Giuliani, poll finds

In a hypothetical match-up between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, bloc after bloc of traditionally Republican voters break for Clinton:

She wins the South.

She polls evenly with voters who attend church at least once a week.

She splits families with a household income above $100,000.

All are constituencies Republicans have dominated for decades; George W. Bush won each by double-digit margins.

The findings from The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press remain preliminary, considering even the primaries are still two months off.

But Pew questioned an unusually large number of voters to try to paint the most accurate picture possible of where the presidential contest stands today.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1007/6644.html

[Exultant Democracy]

42. If you checked the links it talks about how the pew poll was taken during the start of the month

while the q-pac poll was taken last week. If you go by polls then the trend is more then a little disturbing for Clinton.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. No-One Poll Began When The Other Poll Ended

I know you don't want to hear this but a full review of the empirical data suggests Rudy Ghouliani is running a competitive race with Obama, Edwards, and Clinton , as of (now) and the small difference in polls is statistical noise...

But don't let a few small facts get in the way of a thoroughly disingenuous argumewnt...


DSB

[mtnsnake]

43. That 11 people so far would recommend a post that Giuliani would beat a Dem says volumes about DU

WTF?

[opihimoimoi]

47. An invasion of Pub Trolls..some been here for years, imbedded and in sleep cells.

Them Pubs are ruthless and tenacious...

They come to manipulate the atmosphere

[Heywood J]

50. Because eleven people wanted to give other Dems a wakeup call or a warning

means DU is infested with Republican sleeper cell trolls here for years to manipulate people? The logic there is astounding - Occam's Razor is your friend.

[DFW]

46. A year out , some poll that says Giuliani wins by 3% is relevant?

Right, just about as relevant as the poll that showed him losing
by 3% a month ago. In other words, not at all.

Whoever our nominee is, the poll that is taken a year from now is the one
to either get hope from or tremble at. This far out, I don't care one way
or the other. There will be some quarter billion dollars spent on opinion-
forming (i.e. advertising and campaigning) in the next 12 months. The time
to see what is what is afterwards.

This is Dallas-Ft. Worth, and I approved this message (seemed like the thing to do at the time).