I think Edwards will pick up momentum after Iowa

[mmonk]

because I think he will gain momentum there once the caucus shakes out and the candidate supporters of those with less than 15% will shift to him. I think it may help carry him to winning the nomination. This is just my political instincts. I currently have been leaning more and more to Dodd.

[Tejanocrat]

1. I think the caucus format is tailored to Edwards campaign and (unfairly?) a poor match for Obama's

[Debi]

11. Why?

I'm not being argumentative, I just wonder why you think that. Obama's camp has been saying that the new and young and independent caucus-goers are what is going to help him win. Why would the format not work?

[Tejanocrat]

16. From what I hear from friends in Iowa, Edwards has lots of small town and rural support plus urban

support that is fairly evenly blanketed across Iowa.

I hear that Obama has as many supporters but they are more concentrated into bigger urban areas and college towns and that Obama's support is deeper in smaller pockets instead of more evenly spread out across the whole state.

From what my Iowan friends tell me, Obama's support is exactly like Dean's was and the problem (they say) was that Dean had 500 supporters show up at at a precinct which normally only gets 10% of that activity so his support would "overflow" the number of delegates allocated to that precinct but then he would tank in rural precincts.

What I'm hearing is that a candidate will win more delegates with support evenly spread out across Iowa as compared with another candidate who has as many (or more) supporters who are concentrated in fewer areas.

I'm hearing that Edwards' support is more evenly spread out than Obama's.

[Debi]

17. Thanks. I do think Edwards has left-over support across the state

from 2004 and if those folks bring one or two with him he will see viability state-wide.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

2. He either picks up

momentum after Iowa or drops out if he looses Iowa.

[mmonk]

4. Doubt it would be that quick.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

5. I there any other

state that he can win ?

[mmonk]

6. IMO, loyalty isn't deep this time around on behalf on many in the public

and they can influenced by events. That being said, I think he needs Iowa at least in an upswing status. I think he may get it.

[slick8790]

7. If he loses Iowa, and doesn't win NH either, then I think he'll drop out and endorse someone else.

[Mags]

3. I sure hope you are right!!

He's my man.

[Debi]

12. Welcome to DU mags

:hi:

[monmouth]

8. I think this is a great opportunity for Joe Biden, he needs to move up

to that first tier. He has far more important,direct,concise and interesting answers to important questions. His performance last evening was the winner for me..

[weeve]

9. Actually ...

I still feel that Al Gore will be in the drivers seat by then. But yes, should Al definitively rule out the Presidency I will be wholeheartedly supporting Edwards ( who would make a damned great VP anyway ).

Gore #1 ... Edwards #2

[Debi]

10. Biden is my son's #1 choice and if Biden is not viable Edwards is his #2

Being caucus-goers #2 choice is what propelled Edwards to #2 in 2004. Maybe lightening can strike twice?

[rucky]

13. My gut says Biden will be the dark horse.

If only he had more funding.

[Virginia Dare]

14. Here's hoping you're right, I like Dodd too...

maybe he'd be a good V.P. candidate.

[jmp]

15. I think so too.

In fact I think Edwards wins Iowa.

[Think82]

18. Biden will do well in Iowa. He's got more endorsements there than edwards and david yespen said

he would make the top 3.

Look for a late momentum.

[Hawkowl]

19. Agree

We are in a two person race right NOW. Hillary vs.....everyone else. Edwards has the ground organization and the best strategy for Iowa of the anti-HRC candidates. His strategy is obvious and classic. Win Iowa. Build the momentum and finish in the top two in NH, which will force all other major contenders to fold. This will allow him to face off against HRC mano a mano. Obama's wife pretty much let it slip a few months ago that if Obama can't win IA and NH he is finished. Biden, Dodd et al. simply won't do well enough and don't have the cash to continue the race as also rans.

If this were a horse race, Edwards is the stalker, hanging back and waiting for someone to stumble (Obama who is, currently stumbling, however minor), and then will make his move into the hole to challenge the hyped up odds on favorite. In horse racing the favorite loses more often than wins.