Hillary And Obama Battling Over Whether She'll Get Women's Vote

[jefferson_dem]

Hillary And Obama Battling Over Whether She'll Get Women's Vote
By Greg Sargent - October 18, 2007, 5:31PM

The Hillary and Obama campaigns are going at it again today -- this time over the question of whether Hillary has a shot at cutting into the Republican women's vote.

Earlier today Hillary pollster Mark Penn was quoted by Ben Smith saying that she could win 24% of GOP women. Now Obama pollster Joel Benenson is out with a memo refuting this claim. Key quote:

Penn’s assertion is entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls. Moreover, these polls also indicate sizable defection among Democratic women should Sen. Clinton be the nominee.

Interestingly, the Republican National Committee is now circulating Obama's memo among reporters via email as a way to make the case against Hillary as a general election candidate. Full memo after the jump.

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Joel Benenson
DATE: October 18, 2007
RE: Clinton and Republican Women

Ø Hillary Clinton’s pollster’s assertion about her potential with Republican women is completely undercut by many recent public polls.

Ø At a Christian Science Monitor Breakfast at the Capitol Hilton in Washington, DC, Mark Penn this morning asserted Clinton could expect to receive the votes of 24% of Republican women in the general election.

ü Because women comprise approximately 45% of the Republican electorate, Penn’s statement, if true, would mean the Clinton would win at least 11% of the Republican vote.

Ø Penn’s assertion is entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls. Moreover, these polls also indicate sizable defection among Democratic women should Sen. Clinton be the nominee.

Ø In a recent Cook/RT Strategies Poll, in a head-to-head match-up against Rudy Giuliani, Clinton won only 7% of Republican women voters.

ü Indeed, more Democratic women crossover to the Republican side to vote against Clinton—9%--than Republican women crossover to vote for her.

Ø Moreover, when Gallup aggregated three months of polling data on Clinton (June to September 2007), they found that Clinton was just as unpopular among Republican women as she was among Republican men.

ü Only 18% of Republican women had a favorable opinion of Clinton, just above the 15% of Republican men who had a favorable opinion.

Ø While it may not be her fault, Clinton appears to be as polarizing figure as ever, showing the least crossover appeal of any of the Democratic candidates.

ü When the Wall Street Journal asked Republicans which of the Democratic candidates they would be most comfortable with as President, Clinton was the least named, with only 14% naming Clinton, half the number who named Sen. Obama.

Ø Worried about the effect Clinton could have on Democratic chances to maintain control of Congress, Democratic elected officials have publicly stated that Clinton’s polarizing image would do damage to the hopes of other Democrats seeking office.

Ø In an AP article several weeks ago, interviews with 40 Democratic candidates, consultants, and party chairs “from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races.”

ü One Democratic Congressman from the West said that a Clinton candidacy would likely cost him his seat.

ü Indiana State Rep. Dave Crooks, a Democrat, said, “She’s just so polarizing,” adding that “she would be a drag” on Democratic candidates, pulling down their votes 3 to 4 points.

ü Said Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C. Democratic Party, “The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is she’s so damn unpopular. I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn’t.”

Ø The one thing that Penn’s polling does show, however, is that the Clinton campaign is already taking the Democratic primaries for granted, by apparently already polling general election voters before a single Democrat has cast his or her vote.

Ø With more than two-and-a-half months before the first Democratic primary voter casts a vote, Clinton has evidently directed her pollster to prepare for the general election.

Ø As Barack Obama said last night on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno:

ü “Hillary is not the first politician in Washington to declare 'Mission Accomplished' a little too soon."

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/10/hillary_and_obama_battling_over_whether_shell_get_womens_vote.php#more

[illinoisprogressive]

1. just from the people here on DU shows that Obama's camp is right.

[rinsd]

2. I love it! Obama's campaign counters one baseless claim then makes one of their own!!!!

I have no idea what Penn was thinking with such an exact percentage. He had to be citing something.

Here's Penn's further explanation. I think he assumes too much.

This morning I explained in a breakfast briefing that Hillary has the potential if she is our nominee to win almost a quarter of Republican women in the general election, and that this could well be a last-minute surprise that happens in all of the regions of the country.

I was looking recently at Republican women voters (core Republicans and Republican leaners), and their support for Hillary has doubled in the last few months to 13 percent, from less than 6 percent. Also quite interestingly, "Don't Knows" surged to 11 percent, so a total of 24 percent would either vote for her or consider voting for her. The same thing happened to her favorables with this group -- they also went up. While 75 percent viewed her unfavorably, this was down from 87 percent just a few months ago.

On to the memo -

Ø Penn’s assertion is entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls. Moreover, these polls also indicate sizable defection among Democratic women should Sen. Clinton be the nominee. Ø In a recent Cook/RT Strategies Poll, in a head-to-head match-up against Rudy Giuliani, Clinton won only 7% of Republican women voters.

I looked at the CookRT report and though the sample was small she only got about 7% of likely GOP or GOP leaning voters. Surprisingly she did better with GOP women >50 (9% vs 5% for <50) though when the subset is that small I doubt you can extrapolate much. But substantial defection of Democratic women? Its was all of 5 more Democratic women defecting to Rudy vs GOP women defecting to Hillary in the sample(16 v 11).


However the Obama campaign then goes on to cite baseless bullshit.

"Ø Worried about the effect Clinton could have on Democratic chances to maintain control of Congress, Democratic elected officials have publicly stated that Clinton’s polarizing image would do damage to the hopes of other Democrats seeking office.

Ø In an AP article several weeks ago, interviews with 40 Democratic candidates, consultants, and party chairs “from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races.”

ü One Democratic Congressman from the West said that a Clinton candidacy would likely cost him his seat.

ü Indiana State Rep. Dave Crooks, a Democrat, said, “She’s just so polarizing,” adding that “she would be a drag” on Democratic candidates, pulling down their votes 3 to 4 points."

Jesus christ only one of these is even sourced with a name.

[gorekerrydreamticket]

3. Penn's comments seem kind of farfetched to me....

kind of wishful thinking.

[Colobo]

4. Penn is talking out of his ass.