Missouri electoral votes are up for grabs

[rinsd]

Missouri 2008 Presidential Election
Missouri’s Electoral College Votes Up for Grabs
Tuesday, October 16, 2007


Republican hopefuls Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are doing a bit better in Missouri this month, but the classic swing state looks like it will be competitive again in 2008.

Giuliani now leads Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton by three points, 45% to 42%. Clinton and Thompson are tied at 44%. Last month, Clinton had a slight edge over all leading Republican hopefuls.

Barack Obama doesn’t fare quite as well against the Republican frontrunners. He trails Giuliani by five and Thompson by nine.

Judging by history, the candidate who wins the Show-Me State’s Electoral Votes generally wins the White House.

More at the link - http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/missouri_2008_presidential_election

[MadHound]

1. Living and being politically active in this state all of my life, I can comfortably assure you

That there is no way in hell Hillary will win this state. Sure, she'll eek out a majority in St. Louis and KC(and I do mean eek, both metro areas have gotten much more conservative over the years), but once she gets out into the rest of the state, she'll fall flat on her face, especially in the southern part of the state. In fact her campaign will only motivate the conservatives to come out and vote against her. Meanwhile in the Columbia area, the liberal college town, Hillary's got an entirely different set of problems, namely that the liberals and anti-war folks can't stand her and her policies and will go third party.

If Hillary is indeed the nominee then she'll lose this state. And like you said, Missouri has been the bellweather for over fifty years now, how this state goes is how the nation goes.

[Hawaii Hiker]

2. Looking at this site of election results

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

from 2004 election, I looked at Missouri (yes, this site is opposite of what were use to, here Dems=red, Repubs=blue) & though Kerry only won like 4 counties, he won the counties where most of the people live..In St. Louis City, he had 80% of the vote....

Maybe I'm little too optimistic but Kerry did get 46% of the vote in MI, Clarie Makaskill did beat Talent in last years mid-terms, I think a Democrat, yes even Hillary, can win that state...

Yeah, you sure were right about the southern part of the state, very Re-thug-lican there...

[MadHound]

6. Polls can say lots of things, many of them are wrong

I'm on the ground here, talking to many people, seeing lots of trends, watching the pieces fall into place. And it simply does not look good for Hillary. There's going to be a large defection, not only of the left, but even into the center, of people voting for Greens, third party, or staying home. Meanwhile the 'Pugs will be able to whip their base into a frothing frenzy at the very name of Hillary, and they will turn out in droves.

St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas will barely eek out a Hillary win, probably fifty one to forty nine percent. Even the liberal heart of Columbia and Boone County won't see Hillary any higher than the upper fifties, quite possibly lower, for this is where the greatest risk of third party defections are. After that, you've got the crazy conservative stronghold of Springfield, and all of southern Missouri, Ashcroft country, that will go solidly against Hillary in large enough numbers that it will overwhelm whatever minor leads she picks up in St. Louis and KC. And thus Missouri will fall, solidly for whoever is running against Hillary.

It's a hard truth, but there it is.

[usregimechange]

3. And Edwards leads all GOPers by how much?

[jsamuel]

4. Edwards beats all Repubs by way more than Clinton

Missouri* <11 EV>
Rudy Giuliani...........
Edwards +5
Clinton -1
Obama +2
Mitt Romney............
Edwards +24
Clinton +11
Obama +11
Fred Thompson.......
Edwards +10
Clinton +3
Obama +3

[rinsd]

5. Ras didn't include Edwards. Sruvey USa has him beating all the GOpers

You have to scroll down - http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

Obama and Clinton are within the MOE for Rudy and beat Thompson and Romney outside the MOE.