AP-Ipsos Poll: Hillary 40%, Obama 26%, Edwards 12% (What happened to the 33% lead?)

[Colobo]

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28487/democrats_2008_hillary_40_obama_26/

Just askin'...

[babylonsister]

1. Screw polls.

:D

[Colobo]

3. But, but, nut... wasn't this OVER?

:sarcasm:

[Jackpine Radical]

18. That was my immediate reaction.

WGAFF? (Who gives a ...?)

[SaveElmer]

2. Though released later...

Was conducted more than a week earlier...before Hillary's media blitz starting with the SUnday talk shows...

WP poll is the later poll...

[Colobo]

4. So she went up more than 10% in just a couple of days...

Me thinks the WP is an outlier.

[SaveElmer]

6. We will have to see...

You can't really compare one poll to another...different methodologies etc...

I suspect her real lead is low to mid 20's...

[Colobo]

8. Check the Rassmusen Daily polls this week.

[SaveElmer]

9. Again...

Different methodologies...

And daily tracking polls even more volatile...

However I do remember you extolling that poll a couple weeks ago when it appeared Obama might be catching up only to have it proven illusory...

However the threshold of happiness for Obama supporters does seem to have gone from getting him only behind by single digits, to now being behind by less than 20...

[Colobo]

11. Stop raining on my parade, Elmer!

:hi:

[SaveElmer]

13. Ok, ok...

I gotta go to bed anyway...

Goodnight!!

:hi:

[Colobo]

14. Have a good night, Elmer!

[Freddie Stubbs]

15. Quite possible, but one things one thing both polls agree on:

Hillary is ahead of her closest rival by a significant margin. This aspect has not changed in several months.

[ElizabethDC]

5. I think the 33% lead was an outlier, for now at least.

but I still think she has a considerable lead.

[Colobo]

7. Rasmussen today has the race 40 to 27, consistent with the AP numbers.

13% is not 33%...

[SaveElmer]

12. Again...

The AP poll was taken over a week before the WP...

So even if Obama is "catching" up as you hope on Rasmussen, it can't be the same dynamic driving both polls...

[babylonsister]

19. You're earning your bumper stickers! nt

[illinoisprogressive]

10. Oh my!!!!! the old girl is fading. Fading fast.

[OHdem10]

16. Yesterday, someone posted that the 33% poll was an

outlier. They gave the source of their information but
I do not remember their source.

[pa28]

17. "Unsinkable" ships sink and "fail safe" reactors melt down.

Hillary is facing several exceptional candidates with chops and the money to beat her. I don't question her skills and I think she would make a good President but at this stage "nothing can go wrong" seems like the prelude to a nasty fall.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

20. Interesting results. Apples to apples (AP/IPSOS only), they finally dropped

Gore from the list for the first time, and his support went exactly where one would expect -- distributed randomly to the other candidates. This is a quirk I've been watching for a while--the odd fact that Gore supporters don't skew for any candidate.

Hillary actually gained the most of anyone in this poll, going from 35% to 40% in one week in the AP/IPSOS poll set, but that has no particular meaning insofar as all of Clinton's gain, Obama's gain and Edwards' gain are all due to dividing up the 12% Gore had last week before they dropped him from the question.

So a static week for AP/IPSOS, but with a phantom pickup in the headline number for Clinton due to the Gore factor. (leading Obama by 14 vs 12 last week.)

Gore's 12% >>> Clinton +5%, Obama +3%, Edwards 3%, and 1% to 'unsure'

[bigdarryl]

21. looks like in three months Obama has moved up

[zulchzulu]

22. The race is tightening...

It was bound to happen. Frontrunneritis sets in...