Richardson and Edwards supporters will decide who wins the Iowa caucus because of the 15% rule

[Herman Munster]

If you don't know what the 15% rule is, any candidate that doesn't reach a quorum of 15% in any polling precinct is eliminated. Their supporters must choose among all qualified candidates who have reached the 15% threshold.

Since in the latest Iowa polls, Richardson is well under 15% and Edwards is losing ground in all the polls and could very well be under 15% by the time January rolls around, where their voters go and where Biden's, Dodd's, and Kucinich's go will decide whether Obama or Clinton wins the Iowa caucus.

[Exultant Democracy]

1. What is Richardson polling at in Iowa?

[Herman Munster]

2. last I saw

around 10% and most of those will probably go to Clinton I'm guessing.

[slick8790]

3. I think it's absurd to say someone who's polling within the MOE of Obama and Clinton

on almost every poll, save the last one, as someone in danger of polling below 15%.

[Herman Munster]

4. the trend is your friend

Edwards started with a commanding lead in Iowa 9 months ago and now he is in 3rd in the latest polls and in danger of slipping to fourth in New Hampshire.

[slick8790]

5. Edwards had been the most familiar face 9 months ago.

Since people have been paying attention, most polls have been within the MOE for Hillary, Obama, and Edwards. It's not time to even consider counting any of them out yet.

[tekisui]

6. It's a horse race, I tell ya.

Iowa is too close to call at all. It's just a start. Momentum won't build until a candidate wins two states or more. Until that happens, it's wide open.