Giuliani's support is soft in key states
Though the former N.Y. mayor leads the GOP field nationwide, a poll shows him trailing in three early-voting states. Clinton maintains a solid lead.
By Janet Hook and Peter Wallsten
Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
September 12, 2007
WASHINGTON — Rudolph W. Giuliani has been well ahead of his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in nationwide polls, but he is far weaker in the crucial states that will cast early votes in the nominating process next year, according to a new Los Angeles Times/ Bloomberg poll that underscores how unsettled the GOP race remains.
Among Republican voters, Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, trails Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he lags behind Fred Thompson in South Carolina.
However, Giuliani is only a few points behind the leader in New Hampshire and South Carolina -- within the poll's margin of error -- suggesting that the race in those two states is too tight for anyone to be declared a clear front-runner.
In a worrisome finding for all the Republican candidates, the poll also found that many GOP voters in those key states are only lightly committed to their choices: Though they have been showered with attention by the campaigns, a sizable 72% of Iowa Republicans who say they favor a candidate also say they may decide to back someone else.
Among Democrats in those three states, the race is more firmly settled: The poll found that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has consolidated her lead on a sturdy foundation of support among women, blacks and, in some states, labor union households. And while Clinton previously had established leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina, she now appears to be gaining momentum in Iowa, long considered friendly territory for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
The poll surveyed registered voters who planned to vote in the three early primaries or caucuses. Supervised by Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, it was conducted Sept. 6-10, just after Thompson officially joined the Republican race. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 5 percentage points; among Iowa Democrats it was 4 percentage points.
Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are three of the most important states that start the presidential voting season in January. Hotly contested races in both parties have prompted the candidates to focus most intently on those three states, believing victories there will provide momentum to win in the bigger states that follow.
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http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll12sep12,1,99169,print.story?coll=la-politics-campaignyeah ok so i'm exaggerating a little.