CNN: Clinton 40% (+5), Obama 21% (-2), Edwards 13% (E), Gore 11% (-5)

[draft_mario_cuomo]

Richardson is up one point. It seems some people who were voting for Gore are resigning themselves to President Gore not running and shifting to other candidates.

==POLL: CNN Bush Approval, Dems, Iraq

* Among 458 registered Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama 40% to 21% in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 13%, former V.P. Al Gore at 11%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 5%. Without Gore, Clinton leads Obama 44% to 24%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each==

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_cnn_bush_approval.php

Before the conspiracy theorists weigh in, I came across this past CNN poll from mid-April:

Clinton 30%
Obama 26%
Gore 15%
Edwards 12%

Was CNN out to get Obama then? :)

[ncabot22]

1. Not to pick a fight, an honest question

Isn't 458 people a really small sample? I have absolutely no knowledge of statistics, so forgive the question.

[dugggy]

5. Good question and the ANSWER IS....

The smaller sample is why all polls have a
margin of error. Statistically the margin of
error is the most deviation you would get from
the actual result using an extremely large sample.

If every person in the country was polled, the
margin of error would approach zero.

But to contain costs of doing a poll, a smaller
sample is polled and that determines the margin
of error.

[ncabot22]

8. Thanks

This is why I decided not to pursue a psychology major. Statistics were required and I'm not good at them. :)

[dugggy]

2. You Go GIRL!!!!

and you have Bill Clinton to guide you along,
and Bill has more WH executive experience than
any democrat alive.

[Colobo]

3. Are you for Clinton, DMC? This polls should worry you if you are truly for Edwards.

At least my guy is still second.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

6. I post polls whenever I find them first, regardless of the poll's results

I am not one of those who goes into denial about a poll if I do not like the results. The reality is Edwards has not had any real momentum in the national polls all year, aside from a sympathy bounce after E. Edwards' cancer announcement. The silver lining in this poll is that he has closed to within single digits of Obama. However, he needs to get moving in the national polls. If HRC remains in the 40's and Edwards does not reach the 20's it is hard to see an Iowa win being enough to allow him to overhaul HRC. He needs to get into striking distance. Thankfully, there are 5 months left until Iowa and Edwards is still leading in most IA polls despite spending virtually nothing there and he seems to be recovering in NH. There hasn't been a Nevada poll since June but he had moved into a tie with Obama for 2nd in that poll. I think Edwards is in solid, although not great, shape in the early states at this stage.

[SaveElmer]

7. He may be second on inauguration day as well...

If you catch my meaning!

[durrrty libby]

4. Thanks DMC. I always enjoy a giggle at your commentary

[draft_mario_cuomo]

9. YW nt

[melody]

10. Despite the hopes of the other, Gore isn't considered by many to be a candidate

So he is not voted for, even when present in the poll. It's a psychological
observation long made in Presidential polling. People look for the name they
are currently leaning toward. If Gore isn't "in it", from their perspective,
his name simply isn't there.

If suddenly he entered the fold, well, things would change. Markedly.

I'm going to vote for the nominee with the strongest chance to win, but
there are two people at this point with potential, and I'll make my choice
between them based on which one doesn't have ops on this board slamming
Gore, to say nothing of the other candidates. I'm hoping this will be Edwards,
but the trend is becoming sickening. I'm honestly wondering if we don't have
right-wing operatives from the GOP posing as nom cand ops.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. I agree, plus if he ran many of those saying they support someone else would switch to Gore

In the national polls he has usually hovered between 14-18%. I suspect his real level of support is around 25% right off the bat, as Gore supporters who think he is not running and support a current candidate switch to Gore. He could then quickly move into Obama's support by presenting the first "viable" anti-IWR alternative to IWR-based voters (who are all going to Obama by default right now since Kucinich is deemed unelectable), further moving him up.

[smalll]

11. For the first time, I'm starting to worry -

is Hillary "peaking too soon?" (Heads up, Edwardsians and Obamanians -- that's about the only argument you have left against Our Girl -- Start using it! Good luck, Canutes!)