New Cook/RT Strategies Poll: Clinton 43% (+8), Obama 23% (-1)

[wyldwolf]

http://cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2007%20poll_tpline_aug2.pdf

[dmallind]

1. To forestall the obvious...

....we can asssume that that means Clinton's name recognition has gone up and asmall number of people have forgotten about Obama, right? ;)

The more I watch this, the more I see Edwards as doing the best positioning to mount a serious threat to Hillary. It doesn't show up in an awful lot of the polls yet, but he's staking out some pretty telling and popular differentiations and maintaining enough support to be considered viable without "peaking too early", which is starting to look like it could be a risk for Obama. For a guy who has all that charisma and all that money, he isn't doing enough to establish himself as the unchallenged second option yet, let alone the first.

Early days yet so just some musings, but I am seeing Hillary doing a fair to good job of maintaining leader/heir apparent status and Edwards doing a much better job of setting himself up as a meaningful and viable alternative than Obama is.

Frankly I'd be fine with any of them on the ticket, so I have no partisan blindness here. Doesn't mean I'm right of course, just means I'm not all that biased. Time will tell!

[wyldwolf]

2. Clinton's name recognition must be at 120% by now and people who used to know Obama now ask "who?"

[draft_mario_cuomo]

17. Good one WW

:spray:

[rinsd]

3. !!!!!

"we can asssume that that means Clinton's name recognition has gone up and asmall number of people have forgotten about Obama"

:spray:

[Bullet1987]

4. When in the national Democratic caucus?

That's the only way that poll and all national polls matter. Ask Howard Dean, he'll tell you how reliable they are.

[rinsd]

5. So when did Howard Dean lead by more than the undecided vote and break 40%

He didn't even get that at the absolute height of his popularity.

"That's the only way that poll and all national polls matter."

National polls are only a snapshot at a given time. And right now nationally Democrats prefer Hillary to Obama by almost a 2 to 1 margin.

They certainly have the Obama campaign worried as they had to send out a reassuring message to donors.

[Ethelk2044]

6. I guess they forgot that.

[dmallind]

8. This meme is not convincing either

I doubt there's too mnay people who don't realize that national polls do not translate into delegates in a linear fashion. However the strange idea that this renders them completely meaningless seems like a self defense delusion to me. If this snapshot, long before the state by state votes occur, holds true, it is beyond the realm of reason that it would not mean a Hillary nomination. Now it won't hold true of course, and it may be an outlier even now, but that again does not mean it says nothing. For Obama to win the nomination with that low of support amongst national Democrats, we would have to posit a situation in which all of Hillary's support is concentrated in a few states at a near 100% level, and that those states have insufficient delegates to get her the nod. There is no way any pollster beyond grade school popularity contest organizers would allow a sample that skewed to be uncorrected.

Like it or not, it does mean more Democrats - a LOT more Democrats - support Hillary than support Obama, at this very early stage and with a lot still to happen.

[Bullet1987]

10. It's meaningless because of all the other states will

vote differently depending on what happens in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. If Hillary doesn't come out on top in one or two of those...she's in bad shape as the other states will topple for either Obama or Edwards. This is the way it has been for YEARS!! Which makes most states where the Dems don't caucus as hard mostly name recognition. Not to mention that many people haven't even decided on a candidate yet. Everybody who votes aren't diehard political heads like us on DU...who follow every article and every move. Hence, national polls are UNRELIABLE!!!

[dmallind]

13. and for YEARS!!!

....there hasn't been a single day which contains enough states with an EV count to completely dwarf anything that happens in those three states scheduled just a week or two afterward. Also there hasn't been two war chests of this size before that can carry on momentum for that short of a gap. Nor frankly have we had such an evenly matched set of heavyweight candidates for quite some time. Feb 5th is the day that matters this time.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

18. They show trends. The trend is clear: HRC surging, Obama down, and Edwards creeping back up nt

[jefferson_dem]

21. That trend is clear in your mind only.

Edwards is now at 10 percent in this poll, down five points in the past 1.5 months.

Sorry.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

23. Gallup and Rass show the trends I mentioned

Of course, we know how BO fans love to cherry pick polls. ;) Three national polls came out this week and two showed that trend...

[jefferson_dem]

25. Nah...The facts don't support you this time.

In Rasmussen, both Obama and Edwards have gained a couple points in the past week.

In Gallup, Edwards is up one single insignificant point since mid-July. Obama is down a few (ouch!).

In Cook, Edwards is down five, to 10 overall, while Obama is statistically unchanged. With Gore in, Edwards polls at eight percent.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

27. They do. Here they are

You have to remember Obama once led Rass at 32%...I am not talking about a week but the general trend over the past 2-3 months or so.

Same thing will Gallup. Obama once led Gallup at 30%.

Rass (4/26)

Obama 32%
Edwards 17%
+15 for BO

Rass (5/10)

Obama 33% (although HRC passed him by climbing to 35%)
Edwards 14%
+19 for BO

Rass (5/31)

Obama 26%
Edwards 15%
+11 for BO

Rass (6/07)

Obama 25%
Edwards 11% (after the June CNN debate)
+14 for BO

Rass (6/28)

Obama 26%
Edwards 13%
+13 for BO

Rass (7/29)

Obama 24%
Edwards 14%
+10 for BO

Rass (8/05)

Obama 22%
Edwards 14%
+8 for BO

Average lead for BO in these polls: 12.9%
Current lead: 8%

For the latest Rass' polls I used the ones listed at RCP. I did not cherry pick random days.

Gallup

5/06

Obama 23%
Edwards 12%
+11 for BO

5/13

Obama 26%
Edwards 12%
+14 for BO

6/3

Obama 30% (1st place)
Edwards 11%
+19 for BO

6/14

Obama 21% (after memogate, Rezko stories)
Edwards 11%
+10 for BO

7/08

Obama 21%
Edwards 13%
+8 for BO

7/15

Obama 25%
Edwards 9%
+16 for BO

8/05

Obama 19%
Edwards 10%
+9 for BO

Average lead for BO in these polls: 12.4%
Current lead: 9%

These are the averages. If you look at Edwards' lows in June he has gained even more. Even with the averages Edwards has gained 5 points in Rass' poling and 3.4% in the Gallup poll. Why does such a small gain matter? Let's suppose the same thing happens in the next 2-3 months. That would mean Edwards would be in a statistical dead heat with BO in Rass' poll (3 point gap) and about 5 points behind in the Gallup poll. That would be an effective tie for 2nd in terms of perception by people and the media and would destroy the myth that BO is the only viable alternative to HRC as one cannot seriously hold that position if Edwards is only 3 or 5 points behind Obama.

Cook is the exception. Edwards is actually 2 points farther behind Obama than he was in the middle of May.

[dmallind]

7. Some things should be obvious enough

to not require the traditional dripping red smiley.

[Broke Dad]

9. Hillary reminds me of the Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys always look good on paper. But then the season starts and they get whacked by teams that are not impressed with all of their money and flash.

You Hillary drones keep up the drum beat about her preseason polls if that makes you feel better. Those of us who believe she would be the worst Democratic candidate to turn the country around after W will do everything in our power to beat her and elect a real Democrat. Keep blogging here while I go outside and put an Edwards sign in my front lawn on Main Street, Iowa . . . By the time you finish your next post, 50 or 60 people will have seen my sign.

[wyldwolf]

11. Except Hillary is yet to be whacked by anyone.

"...will do everything in our power to beat her and elect a real Democrat."

From the Progressive Dictionary:

Real Democrat: someone who bears little resemblance to actual Democrats but has more in common with socialists or fantasy political saviors.

[Jai4WKC08]

29. Just wait until the GOP has gotten her nominated

Then you'll see some heavy duty whacking.

All those Repubs who really don't want to vote for a flip-floppin' adulterous, Mormon, fill-in-the-blank candidate will crawl over broken glass to vote against a Clinton. The women even more than the men.

[dmallind]

12. Oh where to begin.

I'm a truth drone, and a logic drone. To be honest if forced into a ranking at this time I'd put your boy ahead of Hillary, but behind Bill Richardson for my vote. That could change of course if the latter remains nonviable in the long term. In which case we may very well end up with the same lawn sign.

The way these things go on DU is just so predictable. EVERY single overall poll shows Hillary leading at this time among Democrats. There are two competing explanations for this:

1) There is a conspiracy between the right wing money men and the media shills to establish Hillary as a candidate so that they can beat her in the general, and somehow 40% of Democrats have fallen for this. The polls may even be rigged bringing the survey firms into this vast, ruthlessly efficient and completely secret conspiracy, because nobody seems to know personally any Democrat who does support her, except the "Hillary drones" on DU who are obviously pre-arranged plants from years in advance or paid staffers secretly recruited by her campaign.

2) Right now, more Democrats really do support Hillary than any other candidate. There are a whole host of reasons possible, but generally surveys indicate they trust her more to be a strong leader and tough campaigner. The reason this seems strange on DU is because we do not represent a valid cross section of the party.

Maybe it's just me (and the other "drones" (snicker) but I'm thinking 2) is a bit more plausible.

[rinsd]

15. Please wear your Edwards support proudly.

It is some of the best campaigning Hillary(and Obama for that matter) could receive.

[jefferson_dem]

14. Hillary seems to be converting some undecideds and taking from Edwards. Props to her.

Obama support remains firm.

Edwards is hurting...one point away from single digits.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

19. Edwards just gained 4% in the last 4 days in the Rass poll...

(a poll Obama once led) And yesterday's Gallup poll (a poll Obama once led) showed him closing in on 2nd too... It seems the hopes many BO fans had of it becoming a two-way race are about to be rudely shattered. ;)

[jefferson_dem]

20. Obama is up 3 in the past week. Edwards is up 2.

It's a wash between the two.

I think we're both hoping the subtle movement away from Hillary is more than "noise."

[draft_mario_cuomo]

24. It depends on which dates you cherry pick

You are relying on Obama being at 24% today. That followed 6 consecutive days in which he was at 21-22%. Let's see if Obama actually moved up or if the 24% figure was an anomaly. Edwards is where he was at 7/28 or up from 11% if you use his 8/3 number. The bottom line is Edwards is much closer to Obama than anyone could have thought about 2 months ago (he dipped into the single digits in a couple of polls, although not Rass, after the June CNN debate), when many BO fans were preparing their eulogies for his campaign...

Good point on HRC. She was at 45% on 8/3-8/4 but is now down to 40%. However, she lost 3 points on the same day BO gained 2. Was that for real or an anomaly? I do hope it is for real and HRC is losing ground. We need the race to tighten up. If HRC remains this far ahead it may be impossible for anyone to catch her. Everyone else needs to bring her back to the low 30's at least.

[dmallind]

22. Yep agreed there

I certainly don't think Edwards is #2 YET. I am just becoming more convinced lately that he will be as we get nearer.

I have no objection to Obama, and would campaign and vote for him cheerfully if he won. I just don;t see his overall capmaign or polling direction as all thatpositive lately.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

26. Obama is still solidly in 2nd

My hope is that Edwards can catch or overhaul him over the next 2 months. This will be key since it would give him more press coverage, more fund-raising, and more support. There are some anti-HRC voters who view BO as the only viable alternative to HRC. If JE catches or passes him some of them will switch to Edwards as they see another choice.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. self delete nt

[Alamom]

28. k&r