IOWA POLL: Hillary opens up lead on Edwards (30-21), Obama up two since June

[jefferson_dem]

Iowa
Likely Democratic Caucus Goers Dec 2006 Jan 2007 Feb 2007 Mar 2007 Apr 2007 May 2007 Jun 2007 Jul 2007

Biden 2% 2% 2% 2% 6% 3% 2% 3%
Clark 1% 2% 1% 2% - 1% 1% -
Clinton 31% 35% 31% 34% 23% 31% 32% 30%
Dodd 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1%
Edwards 20% 18% 27% 33% 27% 25% 29% 21%
Gravel 1% - - - - 1% 1% -
Kerry 2% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni
Kucinich 5% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 1% 2%
Obama 10% 14% 23% 16% 19% 11% 13% 15%
Richardson 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% 8% 5% 13%
Vilsack 17% 12% ni ni ni ni ni ni
Undecided 8% 13% 14% 10% 16% 14% 14% 15%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iadem8-708.shtml

[bluestateguy]

1. Shit

nt

[ronnykmarshall]

3. It's going to be back and forth like this.

When does the caucus take place? January?

[jsamuel]

9. I can tell you right now, they didn't have a 16 point swing in one day

ARG has always been Clinton winning except for one poll. Like I said when Edwards won the Research 2000 poll. I would rather be winning than losing, but they don't much matter.

[SaveElmer]

2. Thanks for posting this as well...nt

[bigwest]

4. Um...so?

Remember '04 in Iowa?
If you do, why do you care about this right now?

[SaveElmer]

6. OP is an Obama supporter...

Give him credit for posting a poll not good for his guy...

[bigwest]

Cool

Credit's cool....but the credit like the poll don't matter anywhere but maybe here.

[jefferson_dem]

8. Thanks for the credit...

Nonetheless, note that Obama's the only one of the "top three" to improve his numbers since last month.

It's obvious that Edwards is the biggest loser here. We'll see if this signals a trend or is one of those infamous "outliers".

[SaveElmer]

10. Jonathan Singer at MyDD is not that fond of ARG...

ARG: Clinton, Obama Strong in Early States Add to Hotlist

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 12:30:46 PM EST

I'm a bit reluctant to put up numbers from American Research Group because they don't jibe so well with other polling (my sense is that they're reaching far too wide of a population, not a relatively narrow primary/caucus population), but for whatever it's worth, here are the latest ARG numbers out of the early nominating states (along with June results and Pollster.com averages prior to these latest polls).

IA NH SC
Candidate ARG Pollster ARG Pollster ARG Pollster
Clinton 30 (32) 23.5 31 (34) 34 29 (37) 41.4
Obama 15 (13) 15.6 31 (25) 22.7 33 (21) 26.1
Edwards 21 (29) 27.5 14 (11) 9.4 18 (22) 14
Richardson 13 (5) 12.5 7 (6) 10.1 2 (1) 2.4

Again, let me stress my general sense that ARG casts too far a net in these polls, that it's quite possible that the numbers for the potentially more narrow population that represents likely caucus-goers and primary voters would be different. Indeed, the ARG numbers don't look exactly like the Pollster.com averages posted above (Iowa, in particular, seems off from the general consensus from other polling outfits). That said, it's interesting fodder for a Tuesday morning (well, it's still morning out here in Oregon...).

http://www.mydd.com/

And there is one DU'er who is usually pretty vociferous in his assertion that ARG is a sham polling service...I wonder if we will see him on any of these threads...

[rinsd]

11. IA polling is diificult because of the nature of caucuses but is primary polling that different?

[jackbourassa]

24. Am I seeing correctly...

Does ARG have Obama tied with Hillary in New Hampshire and beating her in South Carolina? And they are usually very pro-Clinton. Strange.

I agree that Iowa is hard to poll for.

But, Hillary could lose the first three primaries/caucuses:

Iowa to Edwards (other polls still have him ahead)

New Hampshire and South Carolina to Obama.

What do you think will happen to Hillary's polling numbers if she loses the first three contests? Could she even recover from such a thing?

[jefferson_dem]

12. I tend to agree that representative polling in Iowa is especially challenging given

the nature of the caucus. ARG has always struck me as a bit "off" though i'm not familiar enough with their methods to critique them.

Bottom line...these are fun polls to run with but i'll await something from the Des Moines Register before making any firm conclusions on the state of the race.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. I agree, since a IA poll last week showed the opposite trends and Edwards leading

Clearly, one poll is wrong. We will have to wait and see future polls decide which one was correct.

[emilyg]

13. I do. Thanks

[Stop Cornyn]

20. I assumed the OP was just demonstrating that the ARG poll is broken because it's such an outlier

[sandnsea]

5. Trippi joined Edwards in April

And crrrash. Interesting.

[MGKrebs]

15. My thoughts as well. n/t

[draft_mario_cuomo]

17. The evidence does not support this claim

Edwards has remained stable in Iowa and continues to lead in most Iowa polls; he is doing well in NV; he is doing okay in SC. He has tanked in NH but that is hardly Trippi's fault. He tanked because he directly attacked Clobama during the June NH debate. Trippi seems to have had no effect on Edwards' campaign thus far.

[Inspired]

7. A different poll in Iowa from last week has Edwards ahead. n/t

[Broke Dad]

14. KCCI poll shows Edwards up 27 - 22 on Hillary

Research 2000/KCCI
7/26/2007

See poll details

A new poll from KCCI in Des Moines shows John Edwards and Mitt Romney leading their respective parties.

Edwards was tops among Dems, favored by 27 percent of respondents. He was followed by Hillary Clinton (22 percent), Barack Obama (16 percent) and Bill Richardson (11 percent). Clinton and Obama both saw their numbers drop by 6 percentage points compared to the same poll in May, while Richardson for a boost of 4 percentage points.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney was favored by 25 percent of respondents, followed by Fred Thompson at 14 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 13 percent and John McCain at 10 percent. Romney saw his numbers jump by 9 percentage points since the May poll, while Giuliani dropped by 4 percentage points and McCain dropped by 8 percentage points.

The telephone poll of 600 likely voters was conducted July 23-25 by Research 2000 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

18. Clearly one poll is wrong. Is it ARG or that one?

It isn't just that one had Edwards up by 5 and the other Edwards down by 11. Last week's poll had Edwards up 1 and HRC and BO losing 6 points. The ARG poll has Obama actually gaining 2 points in IA and Edwards losing 8.

[Inspired]

23. I heard the ARG poll includes those who can't participate in the caucus.

Only registered Dems can participate. Polling independents is worthless in Iowa until the general election.

[maximusveritas]

19. I think the KCCI poll will be the outlier

As I said when the Edwards supporters were crowing about that poll, that polling group (Research 2000) has not had good results in the Iowa caucuses. This ARG confirms the trend seen in other polls, though we'll need to see the real Iowa poll and Zogby before saying for sure.

[rucky]

21. Looks like Richardson is on the bubble!

Look out.

[More Than A Feeling]

22. This polling group may well be an outlier, but I'm glad of these results nonetheless.

If Edwards wins Iowa without any drama whatsoever, it might weaken the slingshot effect on the other states.