GOP Senator Gordon Smith Facing New Democratic Challenger

[babylonsister]

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2007/jul/25/gop_senator_gordon_smith_facing_new_democratic_challenger

GOP Senator Gordon Smith Facing New Democratic Challenger
By Greg Sargent | bio

Uh, oh -- looks like GOP Senator Gordon Smith may be facing a new Democratic challenger: Oregon House speaker Jeff Merkley.

Smith is vulnerable to a 2008 challenge in larger part because of Iraq, though he is not a member of the GOP WINO caucus, having voted in favor of withdrawal timetables. The question now is whether his votes in favor of withdrawal will cancel out his previous support of the war and the generally dismal level of popularity the GOP brand is enjoying these days.

From the Associated Press:

SALEM, Ore. (AP) — Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley plans to file notice with the Federal Election Commission by Aug. 1 that he'll be running for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, two sources close to the campaign told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Merkley is on vacation in Central Oregon with his family this week, and wants to consult with them one last time before making the final, firm decision to challenge Smith, according to a strategist who has been advising Merkley.

"He could come back and say, 'We've decided that we are just not ready for this," the strategist said. "I strongly believe that is not going to happen."

Oregon is a Democratic-leaning state, and Merkley, a Portland Dem who led the Democratic takeover of the Oregon House last year, appears to be a top choice of national Democrats, who have been searching for a high-profile challenger to Smith for months now.

National Dems unsuccessfully tried to recruit U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio to challenge Smith, but that fell through. Merkley has been meeting with freshman Dem Senators around the country, all of whom are encouraging him to run.

[Alexander]

1. Here's hoping we pick up that Senate seat.

I wouldn't mind taking Sununu's, Coleman's, Allard's, McConnell's or Cornyn's seats either.

[TwilightGardener]

2. Honestly, to be a Repub who is against the war is really a lose-lose

proposition: Repubs automatically hate you, and Dems might applaud you but they still won't vote for you--they want your seat for a Dem. That's why I think the WINO caucus is reluctant to totally turn on Chimpy--they don't want to end up like Smith and Hagel.

[Alexander]

3. By this time next July, the Republicans will be so sick of the war...

That I think Hagel has a decent shot at winning the GOP nomination.

[TwilightGardener]

5. Well, if Thompson implodes for whatever reason, and Rudy, Mitt

and McInsane are still distasteful to the base, it's POSSIBLE, but unlikely. He's more likely to run with Bloomberg as an independent, and the most likely scenario of all is that he gets out of politics altogether. The problem with him is not just that the base thinks he's disloyal because of Iraq (and he voted for the immigration bill, which doesn't help with the xenophobe set)--they just personally don't like him--I see this every day in the paper. They think he's an elitist, a grandstander, "not one of us" (a Nebraska GOPer favorite insult), not someone you'd have a beer with. The combat-vet thing just seems to piss them off even more--the GOPers really deep down despise their vets--it's part of their chickenhawk self-loathing. So I just don't see it happening.

[here_is_to_hope]

4. I wish him well but....

Smith is entrenched in that side of the state.