Friday, June 01, 2007
It’s been 147 years since a “third-party” candidate won the White House. That man, Abe Lincoln is known to history for many things including becoming the first Republican President. Since it hasn’t happened in 147 years, any discussion about third-party campaigns must include the phrase “long-shot.”
Still, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg may be considering such a campaign and is reportedly willing to spend a billion dollars to get his message out. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll found that 27% of American voters would be Somewhat (20%) or Very (7%) likely to vote for Bloomberg.
An even larger number—39%--would consider voting for Bloomberg vote under the right circumstances. Just 28% would not vote for him while 33% are not sure.
These numbers suggest that if Bloomberg can find a message that resonates, he might win some states and deny either major party candidate a majority in the Electoral College. That could lead to Electoral Chaos by creating a deadlock in both the Electoral College and the House of Representatives. Such a process would be unprecedented and unpredictable, sure to be studied by historians and political scientists for generations. There’s also an outside chance it could lead to a President Bloomberg.
If Bloomberg somehow found himself in second place as Election 2008 progresses, the dynamics get even more interesting. Remember, Ross Perot was second in the polls six months before the 1992 campaign. But, then he dropped out of the race for a period of time before re-entering the fray. He never regained his earlier status but still wound up with 19% of the vote.
---eoe---
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/27_likely_to_vote_for_bloomberg_as_third_party_candidate