i wrote some of my thoughts about a Bloomberg candidacy yesterday
in this post.the main point, or at least for me a more interesting point to consider, goes beyond who will win the presidential election in 2008.
much of my focus has been on political activism in the political center. i think it's a phenomenon that's gotten way too little attention. we're all so polarized screaming about the extreme left or the extreme right that we've overlooked the "extreme center".
the grist for this mill was the little revolt staged by the "gang of fourteen". sheesh, their movement even has its own nickname. that spells trouble everytime.
Bloomberg has already said he doesn't want to be a "spoiler". I'll take him at his word for no particular reason. I think he may well be signaling he has a much broader, and much longer-termed agenda. I'm speculating that, if he runs, and maybe even if he doesn't, that the long-term goal might very well be a "gang of fourteen" centrist party. Wild speculation? Who knows?
so, for me, the question is not "what will happen next year"; the question is "what will happen if a centrist third party is formed?" It's not a one-shot candidacy that's drawing my focus; it's a multi-billionaire's efforts to radically alter the American political landscape. Would a new centrist party draw from both sides of the aisle? I'm sure it would. Would it be "exactly equal"? Who knows?
and building even more sandcastles in the air on top of my sandcastles in the air, what effect would a third party in the center have on the major parties? would they lean more to the center, remain unchanged, or move toward their poles (i.e. away from the center)?
taking the Democratic Party as an example, if the Party lost centrist Senators and Congressmen to a third party in the center, maybe those left behind would be less inclined to compromise with their centrist colleagues ... or perhaps the opposite would be true. I really have no idea. The centrist party could wield the balance of power and side only with those who support their agenda. Or, real gridlock could result where the major parties become more polarized and no one compromises.
and for Democrats, if the party pushed hard to please the center, the progressive wing could ultimately form their own party too. and the same in the republican party.
all interesting ideas to ponder. wish i had some answers. clearly, i don't ...
the bottom line here is that I think a Bloomberg run would signal far more than a one-time campaign. 2008 is obviously important but i think the longer-term bigger picture should be a very real part of any analysis.