Parsing the Poll Numbers

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

As I think everybody around here is aware, Newsweek released a poll the other day showing that support for the Bush Administration has dropped to 28%. Gallup weighed in with a "not so fast" press release yesterday, saying that their polling shows presidential approval at 34%. They called this "rough stability" although I'm not at all certain what that phrase means.

This has set off an internet debate as to whose numbers are correct. But just for the sake of argument, let's say that Bush's approval rating is 31% -- halfway between the Newsweek and Gallup numbers.

Now depending on whose poll you're reading, about twenty percent of the electorate are opposed to abortion in nearly all circumstances, and this same twenty percent say they would not vote for any candidate who disagreed with them on the issue.

So of the 31% of the people who support the President, about two-thirds are unconditional supporters. There is no morass in Iraq so intractable as would cause them to stop supporting the Bush Administration. To their way of thinking, three thousand dead GI's in Iraq is better than a million dead babies. It's just the price we pay for doing God's work.

So basically twenty percent of the country is bat shit crazy and would support Bush if he were found in bed "with a dead woman or a live boy" as the political aphorism goes. These people will support any Republican no matter what he does, regardless of wars and economic calamities, as long as he's "right" on the subject of abortion.

Which leaves us with eighty percent of the American people who are sane enough to make a decision based on the evidence before them. Among the reality-based community, factoring out the twenty percent lunatics, that leaves a picture of approval at only 14% with 86% disapproving. These disapprovers would include virtually all Democrats, the vast majority of Independents, and a sizable chunk of Republicans.

This means something.

Going into the 2008 Election, a couple of significant scenarios might play themselves out, and either one of them could quite possibly cause the end of the Republican Party as we have known it. One is that a candidate like Sam Brownback or Newt Gingrich could win the nomination, causing the permanent defection of all remaining liberal-to-moderate Republicans. The other scenario is that Rudy Giuliani wins the nomination, which is more likely, but his pro-gay and pro-choice positions could cause a rebellion among the right wing and they might field a third party candidate, fatally fracturing the Republican Party.

If either of these scenarios plays out, I think it will have an impact that lasts far beyond the 2008 election cycle. Abortion is to Republicans what Civil Rights were to the Democrats; the party has been fighting off an internal rift that has been growing more pronounced for the past two decades. Previous leadership in the Republican Party has been able to keep the pro-business and pro-life coalition together, but that coalition is about to blow itself apart.

And all of this schism among conservatives would, ironically, be traceable to the President who declared himself a uniter, not a divider. Stay tuned, because 2008 is going to be a really interesting year.

[bigscott]

1. or perhaps

the 20% bat shit crazies stay home - it would do us all a favor

[primative1]

2. "would include virtually all Democrats" lol

When I find that Democrat that approves of Bush I am going to start writing my book. It should be a real zinger.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

3. First Name: Joe

Last Name: Lieberman

[primative1]

4. Nah ...

He formed his own party, remember ...

I have begun to suspect this guy