Time Magazine: Clinton retooling her Campaign.

[illinoisprogressive]

Interesting article in Time this week. Hillary is retooling her campaign in light of falling poll numbers, the destruction of the inevitability and fundraising that did not deliver a knock out blow.


Inside Hillary's Obama Counterattack
Thursday, Apr. 26, 2007 By KAREN TUMULTY AND JAMES CARNEY
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Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, right, speaks during a fundraiser for her presidential campaign while her husband Bill Clinton and daughter Chelsea Clinton look on in New York on April 23, 2007.
Brooks Kraft / Corbis for TIME
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Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign was designed and built to be a dreadnought, an all-big-gun battleship that would rule the waves without being dented, slowed or thrown off course. But it has been caught off guard by a submarine named Barack Obama, running silent, running deep — until he surfaced with a spectacular showing in the first round of fund-raising numbers. What startled Clinton's team was not just Obama's totals or his success at drumming up contributions over the Internet, but also how much he is collecting from the big donors who have fueled Clinton enterprises for the past decade and a half. "It was a real wake-up call," says a Clinton strategist.
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Clinton's campaign still professes publicly to be unperturbed, maintaining that it never believed the race would be a cakewalk. "The game plan that we began this campaign with is the game plan we are using today," insists spokesman Phil Singer. But Clinton's advisers privately acknowledge that she is retooling her strategy on four fronts: intensifying her fund-raising, emphasizing her experience and policy depth (she's counting on the upcoming debates to put those on display), pondering when and how to go on the offensive against Obama and dusting off the "two for the price of one" theme of her husband's 1992 campaign. But this time it's Bill you would get in the bargain.

The fund-raising comes first. As her campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, discovered, Obama "works the phones like a dog. He probably did three to four times the number of events she did" in the first quarter. "No matter who I call," McAuliffe says, "he has already called them three or four times." So Clinton is stepping up the pace of her cash raising. Instead of big galas, she will be doing more fund-raisers in smaller settings that offer extra attention from the candidate — especially for those contributors who can pony up the maximum $4,600 total allowed by law for the primary and general elections. Whereas her forces once warned donors that it would be seen as an act of disloyalty to contribute to anyone but Clinton, they are now inviting Obama's fund-raisers to consider hedging their bets by helping her too. And they are reassuring a new and younger generation of fund-raisers that despite the size of her operation, there will be plenty of room at the table for them and their ideas.

Also being added are "small dollar" events, like a recent $100-a-head "Party on the Pier" at New York City's Pier 94, which are useful for collecting not only money but also e-mail addresses with which she might blunt the advantage that Obama has on the Internet. Having raised her money largely on the coasts until now, Clinton is going inland. Invitations just went out for a May 7 fund-raiser in Chicago, which is her hometown — and Obama's political turf.

Attending all those events across the country, however, means Clinton will have to spend far less time in the Senate, a move that, aides say, she had hoped to put off until later in the election season, considering she was just reelected to a second term last fall. Clinton's Senate record — and particularly the skill she has shown working across party lines — has been her answer to those who say she is too polarizing to be elected. But as former majority leader Bob Dole and others have learned, the chamber isn't an ideal base from which to run a Presidential campaign.

Clinton's challenges go well beyond money, though. She also has what Obama's handlers are calling an "enthusiasm gap." The New York State Senator still leads in most polls, but the latest Gallup survey found that 52% of respondents have an unfavorable view of her. Her favorable rating has dropped 13 percentage points since February, to 45%, and has been below 50% in each of the past three Gallup surveys. By comparison, Obama and former Senator John Edwards, her two strongest rivals, registered 52% favorable ratings, and — more significantly — their unfavorables were at about 30%.

Rest of the article is here:
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1614886,00.html

[Davis_X_Machina]

1. All the majors will go..

...through a couple cycles of this, given the long, long lead-in to anything that matters.

Expect this same story to run with all the big names, each in its own time.

[KurtNYC]

19. I think this is the RW MSM's basic attack on Clinton

they have, continue to and will keep on claiming that she is "calculating and insincere" The only thing the right recycles is their attacks. I expect to hear all of the following phrases from now through November 2008:
- poll-driven
- finger in the wind
- stands for nothing
- wavering / waffling / flip-flopping
- calculating
- slick / Hollywood / phony

Same old playbook. This stuff from the same media that keeps telling us how great it would be to "have a beer with B*sh"

Time magazine should have that issue count toward their political donations to the RNC.

[illinoisprogressive]

2. Agreed. I just found this surprising as I thought she would not have to do this for awhile.

I actually thought she was so much stronger. So, reading this was surprising. shows you you never know how a campaign of any candidate is really doing.

[papau]

3. Interesting - with "registered voters" it's 34/24, but "all" citizens it's 36/31 - Obama has those

who don't vote but say they will?
From Polling Report:

Pew Research Center Registered: 4/18-22/07 Hillary Clinton 34 Barack Obama 24


NBC News/Wall Street Journal -All that said they would vote: 4/20-23/07: Clinton 36 Obama 31

[Bucky]

12. Actually, the "likely voter" totals are historically more reliable than "registered voters"

When you see this sort of differential, the better interpretation is that Obama is attracting new voters--people who will vote, but will be doing so for the first time. "Likely voters" as opposed to "registered" is never to be construed as "say they'll vote but really won't". No experienced pollster would ever give it that spin.

[papau]

34. true as to "likely voter" - but the status goes to a subset of the registered - not the group

used for this poll.

[burythehatchet]

4. Neither Obama nor Clinton will be our nominee...guaranteed!

[The River]

6. I Believe You're Right

I'm a long time progressive and I'm
holding out for someone with real substance
and experience to unseat these "media" picked "favorites".

[Bucky]

10. I don't think Sen Clinton can close the deal--we never nominate frontrunners.

Obama, I'm not too sure about. He's got a buzz about him that, while I don't "get it" I certainly can recognize as the same sort of buzz Governors Clinton, Dukakis, and Dean had about them. Dean, it turned out, didn't have the skills to close the deal, either, but it was all certainly within his grasp. Most years I can smell the nominee by the summer 12 months ahead of the convention (1984 and 2004 were the only times I guessed wrong; so maybe it's a skill I've lost by getting old). I'm not 100% certain yet, but right now it really looks to me like Obama will the be one nominated.

Or maybe he's just a show horse, but if so he sure is fooling a lot of smart people.

[Cha]

11. Really? That's interesting..

I just don't want the mediawhores to pick our candidate..I'm sick to death of the corporatemediawhores trying to rule everything from WAR ON IRAQ TO COVERING FOR the bushits, TO PICKING THE DEM CANDIDATES.

[Bucky]

13. (Pssst, "Corporate media whores" is really three separate words)

(also, you mispelled Bush)

[Cha]

14. You're

funny~ :)

[burythehatchet]

15. There is already a severe backlash underway against corporate media.

They are similar to Bush in a very important way. Neither has credibility. Ad no one most people aren't buying their scam anymore.

[Cha]

16. My crazy dream is

coming true, then!~ :toast: Thanks, bth~

[burythehatchet]

17. I'm sure you realized that when the fall comes it will be fast and furious.

backatcha

:toast:

[Cha]

18. Funny you should say that cause

some people were saying that very thing at the co-op this morning..i.e. when it happens it will happen so fast it will seem like "overnight"! :)

[jcrew2001]

24. Edwards can win the General Election

and I'm hoping he will be the nominee.

[Catchawave]

39. I believe you're right :)

:hi:

[Name removed]

5. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

7. "52% of respondents have an unfavorable view of her"

That is okay. She will sweep the remaining 48% and manage to have those votes come from enough key states to win the electoral vote with 48% of the popular vote. :sarcasm:

[KurtNYC]

20. perhaps you missed the campaign she ran for Senate

the one where she kicked Rudy's ass in the rural Republican areas of NY state so badly that he withdrew.

If the GOP and their media buddies want a rematch of these two let's have it

[jcrew2001]

25. New Yorkers actually like Hillary but the rest of America doesn't

We have no problem with snobby liberal NYC intellectuals. But the rest of America won't buy her.

[ElizabethDC]

27. Really?

I'm from FL and I know tons of folks who love her.

[jcrew2001]

28. Really - are these senior citizens

I don't know too many men who like Hillary. Floridians are usually retirees from the Northeast.

[ElizabethDC]

30. You don't know much about Floridians

Floridians are usually retirees from the Northeast? I'm a third generation Floridian - all of us born and raised in Florida. The majority of Floridians are not retirees. Most Northeastern retirees are in south Florida. I'm from Tampa, which doesn't have a very large elderly population (it's percentage of senior citizens is about the same as the national average).

Regardless, I'm not counting a single retiree among the Hillary supporters I know, because the only retirees whose political positions I know are my grandparents who are rabid, rabid Republicans. I'm talking about people I know who are my age (early 20s) and my mom's age (forties and fifties), and this includes men and women.

Additionally, I know Hillary supporters from all other parts of the country as well, because I now live in DC.

[jcrew2001]

31. But if you live in DC it doesn't mean that the rural

voters who haven't moved to the big city will favor Hillary. You're a big-city transplant, most rural voters who have never moved from the small towns aren't going to like a NY liberal imo.

Florida will be competive with the Clinton name, maybe Ohio, but nowhere else.

[ElizabethDC]

33. Nowhere else?

okay, we'll see. :popcorn:

[jcrew2001]

56. She loses to Fred Thompson

and thats really surprising. I just think Edwards is the only won who can win the general election - he might not be perfect, but if we don't win the WH, nothing else really matters.

[KurtNYC]

35. you could have fooled me

"have no problem with snobby liberal NYC intellectuals" -- not the most generous (or accurate) description of Hillary.

and you fail to integrate the fact that she won over Rudy upstate in the red districts into your theory about the rest of America.

[jcrew2001]

40. Hey, Cuomo won 3 terms as governor

so even upstate ny isn't as red as the rest of the country. Besides both Rudy and Hillary were NYC liberals, so maybe if she was up against Pataki or Gulasono, she had a very good chance of beating Rudy.

Besides new yorkers are very progressive so having a woman as a senator is a good thing, and Rudy was getting tiresome.

[KurtNYC]

43. Hillary Clinton has NEVER lived in NYC and

the more voters saw of rudy the less they liked him -- he just came out against health care for the poor. The only thing liberal about rudy is the slack he cuts for his OWN behavior.

In 1998, Rudy was polling well upstate but losing in the city, so his campaign focused on upstate. The more they saw of him upstate, the lower his numbers went. (just the opposite for Clinton -- she won over some of rural reds). Rudy's people knew it was hopeless, they pulled the plug and let that weird guy go down in defeat with no money and no GOP support.

[jcrew2001]

44. ummm, so you're saying she can't be a NY senator

because she never lived in nyc - yikes.

NYC is a state of mind, very international, liberal - very accepting of 'carpetbaggers' like Hillary. Even though she never lived there, new yorkers knew she would be a good senator.

of course, she could have moved back to chicago, or little rock, or georgetown instead of westchester.

[KurtNYC]

46. No I didn't say that

YOU have called Hillary Clinton "a snobby NYC liberal" and a "carpet bagger" who can't win except in NYC, Ohio and Florida. That is your opinion based apparently on your other opinions.

Meanwhile back in Factland, Hillary Clinton already beat Giuliani on his home court. I could show the demographics on her current support base but it wouldn't jive with your very well-formed opinions.

[jcrew2001]

48. All new yorkers are progressive compared to the red states

We're a solid blue state, so the fact that Hillary is a carpetbagger and a non-resident won't deter us from voting for her for senate. In many ways she is an illegitamate senator because she never lived in NYS. It does irritate me that no native new yorker was good enough to serve as our senator. She was a better choice than Rudy, but NYC is the only place that welcomes everyone. No other state would have elected a carpetbagger. She won Despite the fact that she was a carpet bagger. She's obviously well-qualified to serve as senator, but would I personally call her a native upstater, no. But I would call her an NYC intellectual, a resident of the NYC international philosophy.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

52. That's a gross mischaracterization

"snobby liberal NYC intellectual"? C'mon. Hillary is much more down to earth than that.

[rinsd]

49. The man you fear most, Rudy, can't run a campaign to save his life

Here he is claiming endorsements he doesn't have

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070430/ap_on_el_pr/on_the2008_trail

[Bucky]

8. It's incredible that she ever thought she'd get nominated on a knock out blow.

Incredible to the point that I doubt she ever expected that. That was the buzz on her from the GOP-worshipping chatterheads on TV, but I suspect she always knew she'd have a real fight on her hands. She's not stupid, after all.

[Cameron27]

9. I have to agree with you.

She's not that politically naive and neither is Bill.

[jcrew2001]

29. She's scared of a real fight because she

knows she will lose. She knew she had to put up big points in the first quarter, because she won't be able to win if the polls are close late in the year. She knows she's weak against Obama, Edwards, etc.

[Cameron27]

53. That's your opinion.

Obama will give her a tough fight, Edwards not so much. That's my opinion.

[jcrew2001]

26. She misunderestimated Obama

and the Anti-Hillary faction of the Democratic Party. She though she could win on Name recognition and her husband's reputation.

Now the anti-war/anti-Hillary crowd has made their point loud and clear - we don't want Hillary. Its not just 'Anyone but Bush', its become "Anyone but Hillary"

She knew she would have a fight on her hands and she thought she could prevent it by steam-rolling over everyone and being a dictator to her Donors - but the Donors wisened up and said we're not going to take orders from you - You work for us. Now all the Donors are going to a candidate that actually cares and is receptive to their issues.

Hillary is trying to triangulate for the General Election, but she will never get there. Democrats see that this Goldwater Girl doesn't care for their anti-war interests.

[MGKrebs]

41. I don't buy that.

They might not have known it was going to be Obama, but I think it would be a pretty safe bet that they anticipated a serious opponent at some point along the way. Just the fact that they are capable of adjusting their tactics like this is pretty strong evidence that they didn't consider anything "inevitable".

[jcrew2001]

47. But she never predicted Obama would come on so strong and

actually raise more than she did. She thought that Edwards would be more of a threat in fundraising.

[IndianaGreen]

21. How about a new set of clothes and a new hairdresser!

Hint: Talk to Nancy Pelosi. She has great taste in clothes and her hairdo is always perfect!

[jcrew2001]

22. Her plan to be the frontrunner has backfired and made Obama

the frontrunner.

By being mean and heavy-handed, she came off as a jerk to Donors in threatening loyalty to all her donors, instead of Donors accepting her - it actually had the reverse effect - and forced more Donors away from her.

Her plan to exclude donors from the other Candidates failed. Obama, etc. plan of inclusion for all Donors has helped him gain more donors, more energy, and more sincere enthusiasm.

It just goes to show that the politics of divisiveness won't work, and Hillary has lost them for good.

Instead of being an inclusive, supportive den-mother, Hillary has staked her ground as a calculated loner, triangulating her way into oblivion.

[Colobo]

23. I'm hoping Obama is able to keep putting pressure on her

We still got a long way to go and there is still chance for him to deliver the KO blow.

[Ethelk2044]

32. He will do well

He is working hard. He will do well in the end. Give him time. It is too early for him to show his hand.

[Clarkie1]

36. It's the enthusiasm gap, stupid. nt

[MGKrebs]

37. As any competently run campaign would at this point.

We're probably past the first post, so to speak, after the first quarter fundraising numbers and the first debate, it's a good time to take a look at the situation and adjust as necessary.

Sometimes trends develop enough momentum that they can't be changed, but campaigns will react to poll numbers, fundraising results and many other issues and try to change things in their favor. As the article points out, the Clinton campaign is quite aware of the possibility of an ascdendant Edwards campaign if they attack Obama too hard too early.

Do we know if Rahm Emmanuel is "advising" anybody yet?

[Prophet 451]

38. Am I the only one worried...

...that the Democratic primary, with such a strong crop of possibles, is going to be so bruising that whoever emerges is going to be easy pickings for the Rethug attack?

[jcrew2001]

42. Obama and Clinton can't win the general election

without a lot of help by the VP.

[Prophet 451]

45. I'm not sure of Clinton's electability anyway

I'm sure she'd be a fine pres if elected but after about 14 years of RW vitriol, she'd motivate the right like few others.

[jcrew2001]

51. Hillary loses to Fred Thompson, so thats a very good

indication of what will happen if the GOP nominate a true Southern.

[Larkspur]

50. I'm not inspired by any of the Dem Prez candidates but sure like to see

Hillary and Obama knock each other out.

[Greyhound]

54. This is the part that caught my attention, and I'm surprised that it hasn't come up.

Whereas her forces once warned donors that it would be seen as an act of disloyalty to contribute to anyone but Clinton, they are now inviting Obama's fund-raisers to consider hedging their bets by helping her too. And they are reassuring a new and younger generation of fund-raisers that despite the size of her operation, there will be plenty of room at the table for them and their ideas.

Authoritarian overtones (threats) replaced by implied access to the presumptive nominee. "Don't worry (now that we're worried) we won't ignore your concerns any more, we promise."

Is it any wonder that she (her handlers or course, but she gets the credit/blame for what they do) is viewed with such mistrust by our own and such revulsion by the opposition?

[jcrew2001]

55. I agree, she realizes how much everyone hates her now

and is pretending to make nice with everyone.

Authoritarian - emulating Bush, will not work on Dem voters

She was always a paper champion imo - these heavy-handed tactics won't win her any new friends.

[Greyhound]

57. She and Bill lost me with their DINO BS in the 90's, and God forbid, if she should manage

to get the nomination, the only reason I'd vote at all (in the Presidential race) is because of the imminent SCOTUS appointments.

Oh, and my recurring fantasy that she really is not the purely self-serving, pro-corporate, political hack she appears to be, and is simply playing Opossum to get elected, whereupon she will do all the things that a truly progressive President could do, if only they had the will.