Money goes for Edwards and McCain (Alabama)

[JohnLocke]

Money goes for Edwards and McCain
By Brian Lyman--Press-Register
Sunday, April 22, 2007
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MONTGOMERY -- Alabama's trial lawyers bet on their presidential candidate in the first three months of the year, but other interest groups sat on the sidelines.
A Press-Register analysis of first-quarter Federal Election Commission filings by the 18 major-party presidential candidates -- covering donations made between Jan. 1 and March 31 -- found:
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, backed with money from trial lawyers, raised $314,902. Another also-ran in the national money primary also did better in Alabama than in the rest of the country: Arizona Sen. John McCain led the Republican field with $81,400.
Big lobbyists and special interests in Alabama, with a few exceptions, stayed out of the presidential campaigns during the first three months of the year.
(...)
National candidates have often been accused of using Alabama as a fundraising tool without helping the state parties, but Alabama Democratic Party Chairman Joe Turnham expects Democratic candidates to do as much handshaking as money raising in the coming months.
"I'm confident we'll get several at a retail level, as well as a fundraising level," he said.
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CAMPAIGN DONATIONS

Presidential Fundraising in Alabama, Jan. 1 to March 31*:
John Edwards (D-N.C.) $314,902.
John McCain (R-Ariz.) $81,400.
Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) $76,700.
Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) $55,500.
Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) $49,650.
Bill Richardson (D-N.M.) $15,600.
Barack Obama (D-Ill.) $14,317.
Rudolph Giuliani (R-N.Y.) $12,975.
Ron Paul (R-Texas) $6,650.
Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) $4,500.
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Read the rest here.

[zulchzulu]

1. Serious question...do you think Edwards would beat McCain in GE in Alabama?

I guessing that McCain would handily defeat Edwards in Alabama. I don't see the Republican base changing that much there...

2004 AL results:
Bush/Cheney 1,176,394 62.46% 9 electoral votes
Kerry/Edwards 693,933 36.84% 0

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&year=2004&fips=1

[JohnLocke]

2. No.

But he would be competitive in Tennessee, Florida, and North Carolina, and depending on how poorly Bush and the Republican nominee perform perhaps in Kentucky, Virginia, Arkansas, and Missouri. In the West he could be competitive in Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, and maybe (very optimistically) even Montanta.

These states, along with New Hampshire and Ohio, are very important. This is where the battle will be fought.

[zulchzulu]

3. The McCain template would play stronger to Romney for the GOP

Many say McCain is toast...it's way too early and he has enough money to float around for a while... I'm not sure how ANY Democrat will fare in the South, even with the war and Bush's performance, if McCain stumbles away as the nominee. Guiliani and Romney just have too much baggage politically to even matter in the South. Vote for a New Yorker...a Yankee? Baptists voting for a Mormon?

Virginia, Florida, Louisiana and Missouri might be bluer, but the Carolinas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma and certainly Texas seem like blindly overwhelmingly red states unless something out of pattern develops...

[skipos]

5. Against a strong nominee, Edwards would not win NC or TN

imo. Those states are about +15 Repub in Prez elections. Prez nominees usually get a 10% a boost from their homestate, hence, Edwards probably wouldn't win NC. Maybe if he was INSANELY popular there... but I don't see any evidence that he is. VA and AR are not as red, +5 Repub if I remember correctly.

[JohnLocke]

6. Hmm

Against Giuliani, Romney, or even McCain we have a better chance than against Brownback or Huckabee (whom I fear the most).

[zulchzulu]

8. Huckabee certainly would appeal to the usual GOP Southern strategy

He'd get jack in the West and the Northeast and maybe a few Midwest states. Brownback just doesn't have the aura, imho. I do think it is going to be McCain or Romney though...

[1932]

4. Do you think any dem raising less than 1/6th of what Edwards raised in Alabama

has a better chance of winning any southern state?

[zulchzulu]

7. Well...if you really look at the track record in 2004...

...Edwards didn't give much of anything to Kerry in terms of being a Southerner on the ticket...

In terms of the South in 2008, I'd say that the top tier Democratic candidates might take Florida, Louisiana, Virginia and perhaps North Carolina. Add almost all the West and the Northeast and half of the Midwest...

[1932]

9. Would you blame Bentsen for Dukakis not doing well in Texas?

And did Edwards raise six times as much as Kerry in Alabama in '04? He's even stronger then he was in '04, I'd guess.

[1932]

10. Again, I said "would you blame Bentsen for Dukakis losing TX?

Was there someone who could have one Texas for Dukakis?