The 5 Governorships most likely to change party: "Breaux or No?"

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Friday Governors Line: Breaux or No?

....As always the number one ranked race is the most likely to result in a switch in parties....

1) Louisiana (2007): Until we know which way Breaux goes, this race stays in the top spot. The very thought of a Breaux-Jindal race has got this political junkie fired up, and, if it comes to pass, it would undoubtedly be the marquee contest of the 2007 cycle. From everything we hear Blanco is too damaged from her handling of Hurricane Katrina to win re-election and Breaux is coming under considerable pressure to run. Republicans insist that regardless of his decision, Breaux's residency problems will keep him off the ballot. Jindal is the strongest candidate Republicans could have fielded and even Breaux -- an already legendary figure in the state -- would not be a walkover favorite in a race against him. (Previous ranking:1)

2) Kentucky (2007): Like Louisiana, much in Kentucky depends on the results of an intraparty squabble. This one is between Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R), who has been beset by ethical questions in his first four years in office, and former Rep. Anne Northup (R) who lost her bid for re-election in the 3rd district last fall. Fletcher is expected to begin airing ads next week in the Republican-rich areas of the state -- an apparent attempt to redefine himself in the eyes of primary voters. Northup would seem to be the stronger of the two in a general election contest; she is free of the scandals surrounding Fletcher and has a base in Louisville -- a traditionally Democratic stronghold. The Democratic side is a free-for-all with seven candidates (and their seven running mates) all seeking to carve out a niche. Two recent polls suggest former Lt. Govs. Steve Beshear and Steve Henry are the frontrunners, but that's likely due largely to name identification. It's anyone's guess who wins the Democratic nod at this point. (Previous ranking: 2)

3) Missouri (2008): Gov. Matt Blunt's (R-Mo.) campaign circulated a polling memo over the last few weeks that showed the incumbent with a 47 percent favorable/45 percent unfavorable rating. His job approval numbers -- 46 percent approve/44 percent disapprove -- weren't much better. Did we mention this poll was done FOR Blunt? The fact that the campaign is touting numbers like these show how just how tough his re-election fight will be. Blunt consultant Phil Musser insists that Blunt has " passed a flurry of good public policy that voters have yet to fully appreciate," adding: "As they do, his numbers will continue to improve." Of late, however, Blunt has been battered by a sexual harassment case involving a state employee. Blunt's best break in this race may be that state Attorney General Jay Nixon is the likely Democratic nominee. Nixon finds himself in a controversy of his own involving allegations that his allies sought political contributions from a company Nixon was investigating. This race is going to be nasty, expensive and close. (Previous ranking: 3)

4. North Carolina (2008): An independent poll released earlier this week provides a starting point for the only open seat race to make the Line. For Democrats, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue affirmed her frontrunner status, holding a 34 percent to 24 percent lead over state Treasurer Richard Moore. Wealthy businessman Bill Graham was the surprise leader on the Republican side, taking 20 percent of the vote. Former North Carolina State Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr took 12 percent while state Sens. Robert Pittenger (six percent) and Fred Smith (five percent) split up the remainder of the vote. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination should be a slight favorite in the general election, but Republicans believe Gov. Mike Easley's (D) eight years in office belie the fundamentally conservative nature of the Tarheel State. And, in a presidential year, Republican turnout should skyrocket. (Previous ranking: 4)...

(NOTE: The fifth state is Indiana.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/03/the_friday_governors_line_brea.html

[patricia92243]

1. Moan,Groan, Grunt, Growl .... Just when I thought NC was going blue - if we change to a republic gov

Governor - I just give up!

[AshevilleGuy]

5. I am also worried about our Senate race next year.

If the NC Dems run Erskine Bowles again, then I will give up on them!! Or Harvey Gantt again, same thing!

[patricia92243]

8. That would be three times for Bowles?? Surely, they won't. n/t

[stevietheman]

2. Re: Kentucky -- it has a runoff mechanism...

so, if none of the Dems makes 40% (and this is a big probability), we have a second election five weeks later between the top two vote-getters.

On the GOP side, as far as I can tell, it appears that Northup is going to walk away with the nom.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. Thanks for this info, stevie! nt

[KingofNewOrleans]

4. I'm sure Northrup looks well ahead in Louisville

but machine politics are alive and well in the rural Republican parts of the state, so I don't think you can count Fletcher out yet (he is incredibly weak though). On the Dem side, I hope Miller gets breaks thru the noise and gets into the runoff. I think he could beat any candidate head to head.

[stevietheman]

6. Not looking good for Miller right now

He's at 8% in the most recent poll I've seen.

I have thought it might be good at some point, if Miller's numbers don't improve, for Miller to drop out and endorse Beshear. The reason I say this is because both Henry and Lunsford are crooks (on varying levels), and Democrats need somebody who is roundly considered to be (mostly) free of scandal to ensure that especially Henry (who is currently highest in the polls) is beat in the primary and that the Democratic candidate has a smoother time in the Fall.

[ieoeja]

7. Indiana is only 5th?

Did "Ditch" Mitch Daniels lose his first name? I don't even know any Republicans in Indiana who don't call him that in the hope of getting rid of him. Between the timezone comedy and selling the interstate highway system I thought this guy was toast.