Gallup red-state, blue-state poll paints Alabama purple

[Doondoo]

Might Alabama, long a red state in national elections and more recently in statewide races, be tracking a little more blue?

A recent Gallup Poll gives credence to that notion, reflecting an almost even split between Democrats and Republicans. In fact, the poll last year shows that more Alabamians identified themselves as Democrats, 49 percent of them, than Republicans, 46 percent. That might surprise some in a state that has not voted for a Democratic Party candidate for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

.......

While the divide between Democrats and Republicans is not wide enough to classify Alabama as a Democratic, or blue, state, Gallup for the second year in a row classifies Alabama as a "competitive" state for the two major parties and colored it purple.

In fact, Gallup ranks Alabama as the fourth-most competitive state in the nation, behind Colorado, Tennessee and Louisiana. Predictably, Democrats in the state are happy about the Gallup observations.

"I think the poll is just further evidence that Alabama is a competitive, two-party state," said Alabama Democratic Party Chairman Joe Turnham. "You take the poll, coupled with what some might see as the surprising results in the general election in November, where Democrats pulled off some big wins nobody thought we would, and I think you see a bright future for the Democratic Party in Alabama."



http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1171880916119050.xml&coll=2

[Stuckinthebush]

1. Well hot damn on a stick!

Alabama does have progressive pockets. Huntsville and parts of Birmingham have many progressives. On the other hand, you still see a number of W stickers.

Did you know that the "blue dot in a really red state" people are from Birmingham? So we do have a bunch of progressives that would love to see this place turn blue.

[Warpy]

2. Their flirtation with the pious GOP has brought them little

but disappearing jobs and increasing local taxes. That's been enough to wake some of them up. If Roy Moore gets off his dead arse and starts the Jesus Party, the GOP won't have a chance in that state.

Most of the south has been various shades of purple for the last two election cycles. The southern strategy is breaking down and Dixie is no longer the reliable voting bloc it once was.

The real moron corridor has shifted to the heartland, from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and the two Dakotas. That's where crackpot religion has really taken hold and that's where people still confuse the Idiot with the Second Coming. Of those states, Kansas is showing signs of shaking off the trance.

I just hope strategists at the top of the party have noticed. I hope they've noticed a lot. However, from the rhetoric I've heard on the health care disaster, I doubt they've heard anything but the sounds of each other's voices.

[OwnedByFerrets]

3. Im doing all I can to turn it pure blue, not purple.......nt

[kstewart33]

4. As an Alabama native, I say poppycock.

There are plenty of Dems in Alabama. The problem is that they're as conservative as Repubs, if not more so, because they're fundies.

[Arugula Latte]

11. I guess they're the Old School Dems. the South was famous for.

They had a "D" affiliation because the "R" was the party of that slave-lover Lincoln.

Maybe they never got the memo to switch to "R" in the '80s.

[Alamom]

22. How long have you been gone? Things have and are changing.n/t

[skipos]

5. Not to piss on the parade but

compare the margin between Dems and Reps in presidential races in Alabama to the margin in the national popular vote...

Alabama:
'88: Bush (59.17 - 39.86) = + 11.59% Republican
'92: Bush (47.65 - 40.88) = + 12.33% Republican
'96: Dole (50.12 - 43.16) = + 15.49% Republican
'00: Bush (56.47 - 41.59) = + 15.39% Republican
'04: Bush (62.46 - 36.84) = + 23.16% Republican

That is a red state, and trending redder if anything. I am not saying we should throw in the towel, but lets be realistic here.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

6. The Asterisk

The "dead heat" nature of Alabama (according to Gallup) is based on party indentification. Turn-out (and the results you cite) are based on who actualy goes to the polls. Twenty-five (or so) percent of Alabama's population is African American and overwhelmingly Democratic. But they are also overwhelmingly poor and less-likely to vote than white and more affuent citizens.

Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy is meant to organize and energize Democrats in places like Alabama. When we get Democrats to the polls, we stand a chance of winning. I would point to Ohio (where I used to live) where Gallup had a Democrat Lean in 2004, 2005, and 2006. We lost in 2004, but buried their sorry asses in 2006. Being competetive in 2006 might be a start toward something 4-5 years down the road, if we work hard.

Here's the good news nationwide, according to Gallup: Only six states register as leaning Republican as of 2006 -- with a grand total of 58 Electoral votes. That's more than 200 votes short of a majority. As long as Republicans persist in propping up a fail President and his disaster in Iraq, I would predict that the lean will become more pronounced in 2007 and 2008.

[More Than A Feeling]

7. I can't see Republicans being excited to go to the polls in '08

Not with their sorry lot of candidates desperately defending their massive failure as an ideology and as a party.

We could be in for a real treat in 2008.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

8. Unfortunately, no Senate seats at stake in AL

But we might see some competetive races elsewhere.

[skipos]

9. 25% of Alabama is black but

25% of the voters that turned out in 2004 were black too.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/AL/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alabama#Race_and_ancestry

That would indicate that blacks are not staying home on election days in greater proportion than whites.

I don't think that party identification is the end all be all. We all know people who consider themselves independents or libertarians but would vote for GW Bush for the next century if they could. And we all know about Dixiecrats too. Check out polls about wether people consider themselves "liberal," "moderate" or "conservative" and "liberal" loses by a landslide. Does that mean most people aren't liberal? No. it just means most people don't label themselves "liberal."

I agree with the Dean 50 state strategy by the way.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

10. Interesting...

Low turnout in the African American community is usually the culprit, but that appears to not be the case here. And I agree with you on party identification -- a lot of people who call themselves Independent are partisans when it comes to actually voting (that's true for Republicans and Democrats).

It would appear that people are, in Gallups estimation, moving away from a Republican identification but not towards a Democratic identification. In other words, a large number of voters are sick of the Republicans but haven't yet embraced the Democrats. I think the message remains the same. Organize and get our message out person-to-person in places like Alabama.

[AndyTiedye]

12. What Kind of Voting Machines Do You Have In Alabama?

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

15. I don't have any...

unless they moved Milwaukee overnight and didn't tell me!

I don't know what kind they have, but the 2002 election was highly (I say again -- HIGHLY) suspect because of a voting machine malfunction, and the Republican Attorney General refused to investigate of demand a recount.

And to the point of this thread, Alabama had a Democratic governor until 2002 (when the contested election occurred).

[AndyTiedye]

16. Own3d by the Repigs, Then. That's What I Thought

[Syrinx]

19. yeah, that election was stolen

The Democrat (Don Siegelman, since convicted on felony charges, involving HealthSouth founder Richard Scrushy) won the race. Then they "found" some extra votes for Bob Riley in Baldwin county.

I'm not sure if Siegelman is really guilty of anything. The federal prosecutor, Alice Martin, really seems to like going after Democrats. I voted for Siegelman, of course, but truthfully, Riley hasn't been that bad of a governor. He's WAY better than any other Republican governor we've had in modern times. His worst deed, in my opinion, is being a supporter of George Bush.

[Syrinx]

18. Alabama voting machines are ESS

The optical scan type. I believe they have those in every county except one. For some reason, either Mobile or Baldwin county has a different system. I can't remember which one. They're next to each other on the Gulf Coast.

[FrenchieCat]

13. Great to hear!

Wes Clark has been "working" Alabama for some time.....It "could" be made to turn Blue.

Howard Dean's 50 states Strategy is working!

http://www.whnt.com/Global/story.asp?S=5942313&pass=1&nav=menu108_2_4#poll58210
News Coverage -
General Clark spoke to a crowd of supporters from all over North Alabama about changes he would like to see made in the U.S. government. He talked about his frustration with President Bush's new strategy for Iraq


Clark says U.S. must talk with Iranians
General says more troops not what's needed in Iraq
January 15, 2007
By SHELBY G. SPIRES | Times Military Writer | Huntsville Times
Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark called for a "surge of diplomacy" instead of American troops to improve the situation in war-torn Iraq during a visit to Huntsville on Monday.
http://www.al.com/news/huntsvilletimes/index.ssf?/base/news/1168942666185870.xml&coll=1
--------------------

1/15/07 - Attending dinner @ UAW Local 1314, 4: 00 PM, Huntsville AL
Start: Jan 15 2007 - 4:00pm
description:
At 4:00 the General will be at UAW Local 1314 next to the Huntsville Airport for a covered dish dinner. The event is free and open to the pubic. Simply bring a covered dish you made at home or even bought on the way.
Bring a friend and a hearty appetite for a downhome dinner and fellowship.

---------------------

1/15/07 - Joining Leeds native Charles Barkley for the Leeds Unity Breakfast, Leeds AL
Start: Jan 15 2007 - 7:30am
description:
The General will join Leeds native Charles Barkley for the Leeds Unity Breakfast.
The breakfast begins at 7:30 at the Leeds Middle School, 1721 Moton Street.
Tickets are $12 at the door or can be purchased in advance for $10 by calling [phone].
Location:
Leeds Middle School, 1721 Moton Street, Leeds, AL

---------------------
Attending the Martin Luther King Jr. Unity Breakfast, 7:30AM, Birmingham AL
Start: Jan 15 2007 - 7:30am
description:
Martin Luther King Jr. Unity Breakfast in Birmingham, Alabama
The event is at 7:30 am at the Birmingham Jefferson Civic Center East Ballroom. Tickets are $20 each and can be purchased at the door or by calling [phone].
Location:
Birmingham Jefferson Civic Center East Ballroom, Birmingham AL
---------------------

AL Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks to be Sworn in by Gen. Wesley Clark, @ 11:30AM Montgomery, AL
Start: Jan 15 2007 - 11:30am
description:
At 11:30 General Clark will be in Montgomery to swear in Ron Sparks for his second term as Alabama's Commissioner of Agriculture and Industry.
The Inauguration is at 11:30 on the front steps of the Capitol and is open to the public.
Location:
Front steps of the Capitol, Montgomery AL
----------------------
General Clark at the University of Alabama
October 13, 2006
Retired U.S. Army General Wesley Clark presented the Frank A. Nix Lecture at The University of Alabama on Friday, Oct. 13.
-----------------------
October 12, 2006
Ozark, AL
Barbecue in the Ballpark at Eagle Stadium - Campaigning for Alabama Democrats

------------------------
October 13, 2006
Birmingham, AL
Downtown Democratic Club luncheon - Campaigning with central Alabama Democrats
-------------------------
October 14, 2006
Birmingham, AL
15th Anniversary Komen Birmingham Race for the Cure,
-------------------------

October 10, 2005
Birmingham, AL
Alabama Democrats Rally at the Sports Hall of Fame
and
Democratic Rally at Work Play Theater
http://securingamerica.com/taxonomy/term/41

[KingFlorez]

14. Political realignment is on the horizon

It won't be quick, but in about a decade I think the electoral map will look a whole lot different.

[fujiyama]

17. Hmmm....weren't there some people ridiculing the 50-state trategy

I'll admit, even I was skeptical...

Gotta give Dean a good amount of credit for sticking by the idea...That and of course, the republicans' inability to actually manage everything - but instead plunder and loot from the public. Looks like the worst victims (usually the south, which has proven to be near the bottom on many indicators) may be starting to wake up...

This also gives me hope that the influence "evangelical" fanatics have is waning. Because if people are starting to figure out they're being used down there, it's much larger...

[aaronbees]

20. Definitely beautiful news but....

as noted above, there seems to be a disconnect between party identification and the Presidential vote. I've noticed that in my area of the South as well (southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas) -- people who may identify as a Dem on many issues but probably voted for Bush. Still, this is nice to see and gives cause for hope (and more work)!

[JackCo]

21. I know in

Jackson County you can rarely vote in primaries unless you are Democrat. There are very few R's who run for local offices. So if you don't vote in the primary you don't have a say in the general election. However, I have a feeling quite a few of the primary Democratic voters in the county do tend to vote republican when it comes to general elections. Controlling other people by implementing the "bible belt morals" is still very important here unfortunately.