WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: Another Early Look at the Senate Playing Field
....The ten Senate races below are ranked alphabetically for now. By this summer (or maybe even a little bit before then) we should know enough about the shape of the field to rank them.
To the Line!
* Colorado: Here's what we know: Rep. Mark Udall (D) and former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) are running for the seat being vacated by Sen. Wayne Allard (R). What we don't know is whether former Rep. Bob Schaffer, who ran unsuccessfully against beer magnate Pete Coors in the 2004 Senate primary, will decide he has another race in him. And, if he decides not to run, will conservatives find another candidate to back or just line up behind McInnis? The Fix keeps hearing that Schaffer is leaning against the race. If he decides not to run, keep an eye on Secretary of State Mike Coffman. He may be the choice to carry the conservative flag in the primary.
* Louisiana: The full-court press is on to convince Rep. Richard Baker (R) to run against Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) next November. Democrats and Republicans agree that Baker would be Landrieu's most formidable opponent, and it would seem as though he has little reason to remain in the House with Republicans in the minority. If he wants to win, Baker needs to get in and start raising money. He had just $37,000 in the bank at the end of 2006, compared with $852,000 for Landrieu. If Republican can get Baker to run, which looks more likely than not at the moment, this is their best pick-up chance of the cycle.
* Maine: The last Senate Line noted that we continue to hear rumors that Rep. Tom Allen (D) was not entirely committed to challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R). Immediately after we wrote that, The Fix's inbox was flooded with notes insisting that Allen is running. We're convinced. While Allen isn't the most charismatic candidate, he is a proven vote getter -- having held southern Maine's 1st District since 1996. And he starts the race on equal financial footing with Collins: Allen ended 2006 with $502,000 on hand while Collins had $436,000.
* Minnesota: The Fix can't wait to see how Franken's candidacy plays out. His announcement struck the right message, which can be boiled down to: I'm not a typical politician but that doesn't mean I don't care deeply about the direction of the country. Franken's fame brings pluses and minuses -- he should be able to raise money rather easily, but he must prove to voters that his candidacy isn't a gag. The likelihood of a Democratic nomination fight between Franken and (wealthy trial lawyer Mike) Ciresi should help the political novices polish their messages and organize their fundraising efforts. Both men have pledged to abide by the results of the party's convention, meaning that there will not be a potentially destructive September '08 primary....
(NOTE: The remaining states are Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon and South Dakota.)
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/02/the_friday_senate_line_5.html#more
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