Early speculation: Most likely '08 Presidential nominees

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
01/ 5/2007
The Line: 2008 Begins Now

....The No. 1 candidates below are the ones most likely to win their party's nomination in 2008....

DEMOCRATS

1. Hillary Rodham Clinton: Opinions about Clinton are decidedly mixed. On the one hand, she is winning plaudits for reaching outside of her close-knit circle of advisers as she puts a staff in place for a national campaign. On the other, she has drawn criticism from some insiders for her alleged lack of an organization in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. We're skeptical of the Clinton naysayers, as she should have all the organizational power (and money) she needs when she formally announces. Clinton's political operation is vast -- larger than most people realize -- and has tentacles across the country. Any argument that she will somehow struggle to find quality individuals to work for her campaign in the early states seems like wishful thinking. In the meantime, we await a formal announcement from the senator. Of all the Democrats, she's under the least pressure to announce soon. (Previous ranking: 1)

2. John Edwards: Sure, his announcement during the holiday week got trampled by the death of former President Gerald Ford. And sure, we still hear talk that Edwards is a more hardened -- some say cynical -- candidate than the fresh-faced politician who surprised many in Washington with his strong showing in the 2004 primaries. But Edwards still has considerable strengths -- many of which were on display during the announcement of his second national candidacy in New Orleans. Edwards is incredibly charismatic and, with the possible exception of Obama, the most rawly talented candidate on the Democratic side. He also continues to show real strength in Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses and has a legitimate chance of winning the Nevada caucus as well as the South Carolina primary. No other candidate outside of Clinton is as strong in as many early states. (Previous ranking: 2)

3. Barack Obama: At this point, we'd be shocked if Obama announced he will not run for president in 2008. The most popular parlor game in Washington these days is guessing the day Obama makes it official. One fascinating theory a Democrat recently passed along to The Fix was for Obama to make the announcement over the long weekend in January that ends on the 15th with Martin Luther King Jr. day. Such an announcement would highlight the historic nature of Obama's candidacy and place him as next in line to one of the great civil right leaders of our time. It's just an idea, but it's compelling. Obama's strengths are myriad, ranging from his natural charisma to his vast fundraising capacity to his opposition to the war in Iraq. His weakness is simple -- experience. Are voters ready to trust control of the country to someone who has spent just two years in the Senate? (Previous ranking: 3)

4. Bill Richardson: Richardson moves up a spot in the rankings thanks largely to Evan Bayh's departure from the race. The New Mexico governor has been laying low of late, but his political aides have made clear that he absolutely continues to plan to run for the Democratic nomination in 2008. Richardson seems likely to paint himself as the only Western candidate -- a region of the country where Democrats have made considerable gains on the state and federal level over the past few elections. As we've said before, Richardson has the deepest and broadest resume of any candidate in the field and also a relentless energy that should translate well into the glaring national media spotlight. We still don't see how he makes the leap to challenge the big 3 candidates on the Democratic side, but he is as well-positioned as any candidate to move up if any of the big boys (and girl) stumble. (Previous ranking: 5)...

(NOTE: The fifth Democratic candidate is Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack. The Republicans are, in order, McCain, Romney, Giuliani, Gingrich and Brownback.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/01/the_friday_presidential_line_1.html#more

[YOY]

1. If Clinton is nominated as the presidential Dem Candidate

I foresee DU self-imolating.

:hide:

[SmellsLikeDeanSpirit]

2. It would be rocky times for sure.

:nuke:

[Nye Bevan]

3. I don't think so

There will be several months of very spirited debate but when the candidate is decided the vast majority of DU will unite around him or her against McCain or Romney or whoever. This is what happened last time-- a few rabid Deaniacs did leave the board but the majority of DU buried their differences.

[YOY]

4. Yeah, but the anti-war sentiment and disgust of the so-called Patriot act is tough to deny around DU

This will go for well beyond a few Gore/Kerry/Obama/Dean supporters.

I am pretty sure that encompasses well more than 50% of the folks here. Hilary as a Hawk and as someone who voted to pass and renew the Patriot act is going to be HARD PRESSED to get support around here. That and focus of 'fluff issues' like violence in video games instead of real problems will be painful. (and please don't tell me it's not a fluff issue...it's ABSOLUTELY a fluff issue with no substance.)

I personally will be hard pressed to vote for a hawk. I don't give a toot if she is a woman or a former first lady in my decision to vote for someone or not. I am quite sure I am not alone.

[lojasmo]

9. "Rabid Deaniacs?'

Perhaps you should choose your bullshit remarks more carefully. Dean is now PARTY CHAIR. Yes, the LEADER OF OUR PARTY.

Most deaniacs are still around....

[Nye Bevan]

10. Sorry, no offence was intended

I actually like Dean and I did not mean "Deaniac" to be any kind of slur. I know that most are still here but I believe that a few did leave to start a new discussion board after the spirited primary debates in 2004. The point I was trying to make is that the impact on DU of what many referred to as the "primary wars" was quite small- certainly DU did not self-immolate and I do not expect that to happen this time either.

[NYCGirl]

23. Yeah, sure. The Deaniacs are "rabid" while the primary debates were "spirited."

:eyes:

[Le Taz Hot]

20. "Rabid Deaniac"

checking in. I took a vacation from DU after Iowa because intelligent discourse disappeared and utter idiocy was left in it's place. Deja vu.

[Jack Rabbit]

5. Don't worry about Hillary Clinton

If she's ahead in any polls now, we can place our trust in Terry McAuliffe to fix that before the primaries start.

[mnhtnbb]

8. LOL

[On the Road]

6. It's Interesting They Rate Richardson That High

Although he's routinely discounted on DU, I think he has a real shot at the nomination. All of the so-called major candidates have drawbacks, and primary voters may be looking for an alternative. I think they could go for a more staid, moderate, governor as long as exudes confidence and principle. I haven't seen enough of Richardson to judge whether he's an improvement on Bayh or Vilsack, who do not seem to be especially strong candidates.

[PresidentObama]

7. Richardson is fourth, and Vilsack fifth?

Your kidding me right? I like Vilsack and Richardson, but Kerry isn't on the radar here. He doesn't even mention Gore as a possible candidate. And while I don't like Biden as a Presidential candidate, I'd put him ahead of Richardson. And wheres Clark too?

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

14. Uh.

Gore hasn't even stated he's interested in running, and while the other big three are already puting together staff for a national campaign... he's not. Why would he merrit inclusion? Ditto (to a much less extent) Clark. If you're running for president, act like it, and maybe the media will pay attention.

As for why the popular, intelligent, policy smarty Hispanic governor of a swingstate in a growing Democratic section of the country is being listed above a guy who just lost in 2004 and a guy who's, well, Joe Biden...

[Nye Bevan]

11. By the way, a little OT but *Gingrich* as a potential repuke candidate?

He TOLD HIS WIFE HE WAS DUMPING HER while she was IN A HOSPITAL BED RECOVERING FROM CANCER SURGERY!

How could this bastard ever have a hope in hell of being president? Or even getting the nomination?

[ellisonz]

12. My take:

1. Edwards.
2. Obama
3. Clinton.
4. Richardson.
5. Biden
6. Vilsack

The WP is drinking kool aid and apparently can't do research.

[caledesi]

19. Edwards/Obama would be a sweet ticket. nt

[CTyankee]

21. I thought that same thing this morning!

I think that Edwards' being a white southerner on the side of working people would balance Obama's black northerner to many in the South and vice versa. And Elizabeth Edwards is such an appealing person and has such a moving story to tell with her breast cancer. I don't know anything about Obama's wife so I can't comment on her.

If the pubs can't do better than McCain and Romney, they will get what they deserve: a thorough trouncing.

[caledesi]

22. Absolutely. The thing about Elizabeth Edwards is that she

is smart (politically) and a real asset to John Edwards. Ever hear her? She keeps things in perspective and "no John, we aren't going to go there."

She is phenomenal.

As far as Osama's wife, Michele... I don't know very much, but she is a "looker."

[DrFunkenstein]

13. No Discussion of Policy, Which Makes Me Wonder What "Rawly Talented" Means

Campaign journalists have absolutely no connection to the real world, or to the idea that these people are running for a position of public service. Which is why they do a public disservice by reporting the horse race schlock, only serving to significantly muddy the waters.

Seriously, the campaign media really make me more and more nauseous by the day.

BTW, the idea of Obama announcing by tying himself to MLK is one of the most retarded ideas I have ever heard. And a perfect illustration of why these "journalists" are not out there investigating, oh I don't know, anything.

As for "rawly talented," I have nothing against Edwards, but this seems like an illustration of a bunch of hack writers thinking that the rhetorical is the only thing that matters.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

15. Looking at the good news

Obama, Edwards, Richardson, or even the Hill would slaughter every last one of those Republicans but McCain, and McCain seems intent on appearing as a senile, war hungry lunatic in a country that's tired of fighting. If we were going to elect our first Hispanic/Black/Women president, this would be the year to do it.

[Ninja Jordan]

16. Hillary is the most media-driven candidate EVER

Major media outlets are trying to force Miss Crass onto us. She's #1 according to this list WHY exactly? Oh, because she's "Hillary."

[FrenchieCat]

18. With Obama and Edward following dutyfully right behind her.....

This shit is sooo manufactured, it ain't even funny!

[FrenchieCat]

17. So what are their "rankings" based on, with Richardson 4th?

Who Chris has decided for the week?

In their case, it's not even based on polling data.

Guess they decide, they report! :eyes:

I'm so tired of the contrived bullshit preprimary period, its about as bad as the media frenzy after just one primary. How many of those in their ranking have declared their candidacy? Oh......just one.

:boring: