I predict U.S. troop levels in Iraq will be roughly the same the next election as they are now.

[Clarkie1]

The Chimp isn't going to withdraw any troops until "victory" is achieved, which means he isn't go to withdraw any troops.

There isn't going to be any timetable.

There isn't going to be any real regional diplomacy.

Which leaves...a change in military tactics (redeploying more troops to Baghdad, more directly confronting the militias, etc.) or perhaps a slight increase in troops.

There isn't going to be any change in policy that could allow any really meaningful number of our troops out of there before the next election. He's not going to allow "defeat" to occur on his watch.

[Monkeyman]

1. Brother Troop levels will go up

About 20,000 this year till about 40,000 next year. Thats what Gates at DOD wants. The Chimp will not use the Iraq Study Report he will use DOD's report that says we can still win this thing YA RIGHT THAT BIRD FLEW A LONG TIME AGO

[mike_c]

2. I'll agree with you if the situation in Iraq remains much as it is currently....

That is, a grinding civil war that isn't really achieving anything except killing and ethnic cleansing. However, I'm concerned that it will worsen considerably during the next year or so. There are a number of important shoes that haven't dropped yet-- no one has attempted to oust al-Maliki yet, and rhat IS coming, sooner or later, the Mahdi Army has not been really unleashed, and in particular has not thrown itself against the U.S. like it did at Najef, and the Sunnis have not launched their attacks against the Green Zone. I suspect the latter is likely because the Saudis are urging them to see what al-Sadr does first.

So if Iraq continues to worsen at it's current rate I don't think the U.S. can maintain the current troop numbers there-- or they'll have to change their deployments at the least.

[Clarkie1]

3. You make excellent points.

It's a very unpredictable situation, and very likely to get worse than the already chaotic bloody mess it is now.

[goodhue]

4. sad but true

Unless the Dems cut funds

[Hippo_Tron]

5. I was against cutting the funds at first but now I'm starting to think that we may have to

Or at least refuse to fund the additional troop levels. Bush has already lost all credibility at this point and I honestly don't think the "they aren't supporting our troops" meme will work anymore.

It'll be interesting to see if we could get 51 votes in the Senate to pass a resolution to set steps in place to bring the troops back home.